Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode' Osbourne Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode' Osbourne odds for UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14 – my expert UFC pick and prediction.
Tonight's UFC 306 main card opens with a men's flyweight affair between Ronaldo Rodriguez and Ode Osbourne, and it has fireworks written all over it.
Although Rodriguez has only had one official fight in the UFC octagon, the Mexican fighter comes with much fanfare and respect from his fellow fighters and training partners in the know.
Osbourne, the more experienced fighter at the UFC level, will be trying to hold the proverbial door on the heels of a two-fight losing skid.
And with both men having one of the more heated exchanges at this week's press conference, it's safe to say that the oddsmakers were correct in their initial forecasts for action.
Dan Tom's Tale of the Tape
| Rodriguez | Osbourne | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-2 | 12-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:30 | 5:56 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 5/7/1999 | 1/9/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.0 | 3.5 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 38% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| SS Defense | 47% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.20 | 1.27 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 27% |
| TD Def | 63% | 64% |
| Submission Avg | 1.8 | 0.2 |
Given how well-rounded both Rodriguez and Osbourne are, this fight could hypothetically go a couple of different ways.
Traditionally a fast starter, Osbourne is a long and tricky customer at 125 pounds. Utilizing his natural length and a solid sense of range, he likes to set up counters off of prodding kicks and extended hand play.
When feeling in stride, Osbourne will try to combo off of kicks, as well as mix in the occasional flying knee.
As far as grappling goes, Osbourne is a former wrestler who boasts a Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt. Using grappling as a safety net to fall into, he has demonstrated competent offensive potency from both the top and bottom positions.
That said, Osbourne's defense has shown to struggle when pressure tested from topside.
Although Rodriguez doesn't come from a wrestling program, the Mexican fighter has displayed strong submission defense and solid instincts in scrambles throughout his career. Despite having a dangerous front choke to dissuade takedown threats, he has also made some requisite improvements to his wrestling since moving shop stateside to train at Xtreme Couture MMA in Las Vegas.
And when it comes to Rodriguez's striking, the 25-year-old prospect smartly variates his attacks to all three levels and is competent from both stances.
Rodriguez will let loose with things like flying knees when feeling himself, but "Lazy Boy" arguably does his best work off the counter.
Considering that both fighters have a knack for countering kicks, I'll be curious to see if either party is forced to shelve some of their tools this Saturday.
Rodriguez vs. Osbourne Pick
The oddsmakers and the public favor the Mexican fighter, listing Rodriguez -143 and Osbourne +116 as of this writing.
Even though I usually jump when seeing a more proven product at plus money, I can fully understand why the UFC sophomore is favored in this spot.
Osbourne is a skilled and athletic fighter who is capable of hitting some cool things (from multiple positions) early on in contests.
However, I'd argue that Osbourne lacks a reliable process to string said skills together – a problem that is only exacerbated as the fight extends given the Jamaican-American's propensity to fade past the first frame.
I also suspect that Osbourne won't be able to rely on his wrestling to bail him out considering that Rodriguez already appears to have a quicksand quality about him in regards to his ability to repeatedly come out on top of scrambles and punish opponents with strikes and submissions.
Add in the fact that Rodriguez possesses the cross counters and knees that have shown to have played on Osbourne, and I have a hard time seeing "The Jamaican Sensation" stay afloat if this fight extends past the first round.
For that reason, I'll also be sprinkling small on Rodriguez to win in Rounds 2 and 3 tonight – but the best plus-money angle is ultimately for him to "win by finish" (by KO/TKO/submission).
The Pick: Ronaldo Rodriguez wins by finish (+170 at BetRivers)
