Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Odds, Pick, Prediction
Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Picks: Merab Dvalishvili to Win (+115 at Caesars) | Fight ends inside the distance (-115 at DraftKings) | Dvalishvili live bet anytime after Round 2
Here's everything you need to know about Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14, featuring my expert UFC picks and predictions for tonight's main event.
The UFC is inside the state-of-the-art Sphere in Las Vegas tonight for UFC 306, also billed as "Riyadh Season Noche UFC," featuring a bantamweight title bout between current champion "Suga" Sean O'Malley and No. 1 ranked contender Merab "The Machine" Dvalishvili.
This fight has been anticipated since O'Malley defeated Merab's teammate, Aljamain Sterling, to secure bantamweight gold at UFC 292. O'Malley is 11-1-1 under the UFC banner with eight wins by KO/TKO.
Dvalishvili enters on a 10-fight winning streak since losing his first two UFC fights in 2017 and 2018 to Frankie Saenz and Ricky Simon. However, Merab has only one UFC finish: a come-from-behind win over Marlon Moraes.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 306 main event and utilize those factors to bet on O'Malley and Dvalishvili, who should make their cage walks at approximately 11:55 p.m. ET on Saturday on ESPN+ PPV.
The event starts with early prelims at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, moves to ESPNNews at 8 p.m. ET, and then to pay-per-view (cost: $79.99) for the main card at 10 p.m. ET.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| O'Malley | Dvalishvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-1 | 17-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:00 | 15:22 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 134 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 68" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/24/1994 | 1/10/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.6 | 4.5 |
| SS Accuracy | 61% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.52 | 2.37 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.35 | 6.43 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 36% |
| TD Def | 62% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
O'Malley is both the taller and longer fighter (5" taller, 4" reach advantage) and one of the more efficient volume strikers (8.3 strikes landed per minute at distance, +4.7 differential) in promotional history.
O'Malley prefers to stay at range and pick apart opponents with his length (87% of time spent at distance); Dvalishvili likes to clinch opponents, push them against the fence, and drag them back down every time they get up (46% of his fight time in clinch or grounded positions).
Dvalishili pushes a pace in the octagon that no fighter has ever matched – averaging more than one takedown attempt per minute (37% accuracy) – and 10.8 per five minutes at distance (54% of his fight time).
Wild stat from @Fightnomics, so I had to plot it.
Merab Dvalishvili has more takedown attempts than minutes in the octagon.
The Machine averages 1.17 TD attempts per minute.
Looking across all fighters in #UFC history in this figure, @MerabDvalishvil currently stands alone. https://t.co/dN4rPKwpiqpic.twitter.com/WUtB07PZDy
— Nate Latshaw (@NateLatshaw) September 10, 2024
Dvalishili's performance against Petr Yan – his only five-round professional opportunity – remains the most impressive I have ever seen in MMA. Dvalishvili attempted 312 distance strikes and 49 takedowns across five rounds (nearly 12.5 strike attempts and two takedown attempts per minute). The Machine is tenacious and offers seemingly bottomless cardio. I'd favor him to win down the stretch of this matchup – into the championship rounds – by pushing a pace that would make any fighter uncomfortable.
While O'Malley showed solid cardio in his only career fourth and fifth rounds against Marlon "Chito" Vera at UFC 299, he thrives when allowed to stay at range and implement his game. Still, he hasn't faced many proactive wrestlers and has struggled defensively against pressure-fighters.
While that most recent win was dominant, it's easy to forget O'Malley's highly controversial split decision win over Yan – which led to the initial title shot. Across more than 5,200 fan scorecards (more than double a statistically significant sample), more people thought Yan won the fight 30-27 (25.1%) than O'Malley 29-28 (24.9%). Eighteen of the 26 media scorecards and 45% of fans scored it 29-28 Yan (seven media cards had it 30-27 Yan, and one scored the fight for O'Malley).
When I originally considered this matchup, I expected to find Dvalishili in a similar price range (perhaps closer to -200 or -150) as Aljamin Sterling was against O'Malley; instead, he's the underdog. Perhaps a recent cut over his eye or indicators of potential staph infection have helped to move the line away from Dvalishili, but I still didn't expect plus money.
O'Malley lost Round 1 to Sterling on the feet (outlanded 13-7 at a distance). He was a big underdog (closed as high as +220) who met his win condition in that fight. Has he shown enough to move to a favorite against Merab, who is a lesser submission or top-time threat but a fighter with significantly better cardio and durability than Sterling?
That's not to say that O'Malley can't knock him out, particularly early; Merab has gotten caught against Henry Cejudo and Jose Aldo and in that dramatic comeback against Moraes:
I need Merab to work on that defense to the cross-lead hook
Sean is his most dangerous opponent since Petr Yan. pic.twitter.com/XQYMqmwtAd
— 𝙗𝙡𝙤𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙙 (@blondedmma) February 22, 2024
However, I favor Merab's minute-winning as this matchup extends, particularly in the championship rounds. Each completed takedown and grappling sequence should wear on the champion's gas tank, and I'd expect the challenger to find more grappling success as O'Malley tires (Merab landed five of 37 attempts through four rounds against Yan vs. five of 12 in Round 5), and his footwork and movement slows.
While O'Malley outstruck Yan (80-47 at distance), the former champion is one of few fighters who has tried to grapple O'Malley proactively (landed six of 13 takedowns, 5:44 control time, 11 significant clinch or ground strikes) and done so successfully.
“Suga defended against Aljo, Merab won’t be able to take him down his defense is too good”
His Takedown defense: pic.twitter.com/gLBgskyRca
— Kenny Okoye🇳🇬 (@TruthfulUfcFan) September 11, 2024
Merab is an underrated striker (outlanded Yan 129-66 at a distance) since his pressure and pace forces opponents to defend the grappling, creating openings for him to land strikes. And if this fight goes to a decision, I feel he has more upside toward looking like a dominant favorite in hindsight.
The betting market agrees – setting O'Malley as -400 (80% implied) in the finish-only market, while Merab is -235 (70% implied) on the decision-only moneyline.
However, that further reflects my opinion that one of the moneyline or the total has to be mispriced in this matchup; the inside-the-distance prop closed -400 for Sterling-O'Malley, with O'Malley as the underdog.
If O'Malley is both favored and far more likely to finish, the fight should be more heavily juiced to end inside the distance rather than priced around a pick'em.
O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili Prediction, Pick
I projected Merab Dvailisvili as a 52.1% favorite (-109 implied odds) in this matchup and would bet his moneyline down to even money (+100) pre-fight. You can wait until fight night to fire for the best available odds; I'd expect O'Malley to remain on the public side (taking 65-70% of the action at present) and potentially get tied into cross-sport parlays as one of UFC's few transcendent starts.
I expect O'Malley to succeed early, but I would also look to live bet Dvailishvili at a better price after Rounds 2, 3, and 4.
I projected the fight to end inside the distance 54% of the time (-117 implied odds) compared to consensus odds nearer to -115. O'Malley is a threat to close the show anytime during the fight. Still, I feel Merab's finishing chances – either via injury (with O'Malley's historical ankle/foot issue) or cardio-based stoppage in the championship rounds are being undersold.
Betting both the underdog and the under is a bit of a built-in hedge – since I view O'Malley as the likelier finisher (projected 80% of his win condition vs. 30% for Merab), and you'd push (if you stake both bets the same) if O'Malley lands the knockout blow.
Still, I'd maintain that one of those lines – either the moneyline or the total – has to be grossly mispriced pre-fight, given the correlation of the win conditions for both combatants. While I do prefer the underdog, I'll take some of inside the distance, too, and look to avoid an O'Malley decision.
The Picks: Merab Dvalishvili (+115 at Caesars) | Fight ends inside the distance (-115 at DraftKings) | Dvalishvili live anytime after Round 2
