Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza odds for UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14 – my expert UFC pick and prediction.
One of several obvious showcases at UFC 306, also dubbed "Noche UFC," features Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza, which will be part of the ESPNews-televised prelims.
Jauregui (11-1, 7 KOs) is the heavy-handed, big-time favorite with the hometown advantage against Souza (14-4, 8 KOs, 1 SUB). Jauregui, 25, will undoubtedly be positioned for a bigger fight at strawweight with a win.
Jauregui was TKO'd by +320 underdog Denise Gomes last summer, she's still trying to shed that massive setback with what would be a second consecutive win following her victory over Sam Hughes in Mexico City earlier this year.
The 29-year-old Souza is also fighting for a second straight win after beating Marnic Mann in April.
Souza, a former Invicta FC flyweight (125 pounds) champion, lost her UFC debut last June via submission to Karine Silva before dropping back to strawweight (115), where she initially debuted in Brazil in 2016.
Bryan Fonseca's Tale of the Tape
| Jauregui | Souza | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-1 | 14-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:52 | 8:23 |
| Height | 5'3" | 5'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 64" | 63" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/28/1999 | 8/18/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.3 | 4.8 |
| SS Accuracy | 38% | 68% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.12 | 2.03 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 50% |
| TD Def | 100% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Jauregui is one of the biggest favorites on the night for obvious reasons. In a fight that could largely be on the feet, she has demonstrated the more impressive and legitimate power between the two, even as she has just one stoppage in four UFC bouts.
Souza may want to keep this on the ground to neutralize Jauregui and test her takedown defense if possible, though we'll see how much this actually takes into effect.
Both are 5-foot-3, though it's worth noting that Souza has had more experimentation with higher weight classes. In her career, she has had six fights at flyweight (125 pounds) or bantamweight (135) whereas Jauregui debuted at flyweight in late 2018 and has been at strawweight (115) ever since.
Of note, Jauregui has a one-inch reach advantage – 64 to 63 – which she'll look to utilize to keep the fight on the feet and test Souza's chin with her offense.
I think this could have some upset potential given that Jauregui has already squandered a similar spot not terribly long ago.
And you could argue she's too wide of a favorite.
Jauregui vs. Souza Pick
Jauregui's -520 as of this writing, which positions her as the card's second-biggest favorite after UFC 306 opener Raul Rosas Jr.
Jauregui by decision is my pick for this, and as of now, the best I could find it is at -160 at bet365.
Barring a shocking upset, this is the likeliest outcome to play out. However, I'm likely going to add a sprinkle on her to get the stoppage given the power alluded to earlier in this piece. That bet is +300 on bet365, which I might save for our MMA Prop Squad feature later this week.
Enjoy the fight, and don't go broke!
The Pick: Yazmin Jauregui by decision (-160 at bet365)
