For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 306 parlay bet or two to sweat.
UFC 306, also called UFC Noche, takes place on Saturday at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Following prelims on ESPN+ (7:30 p.m. ET) and then ESPNews (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 306 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
UFC306 is a truly historic event with a loaded card showcasing some of the best-rising stars in the sport. I am expecting inspired performances from several fighters, and as always, I am looking to target three spots in which violence will win out leaving the judges useless.
Let's dig into my UFC parlays for Saturday.
UFC 306 odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC 306 with our FanDuel promo code!
UFC 306 Parlays
Parlay Leg 1: Raul Rosas Jr. by Finish (-330)
Raul Rosas Jr. is clearly being set up for a spectacular finish in front of a partisan crowd. His opponent, Aori Qileng (Aoriqileng), has 58% takedown defense, which may not sound all that poor until you realize he has been dragged to the mat three or more times in three of his last five fights. Rosas will be relentless with his grappling and pace early in the fight, and it shouldn't be long until he wraps up the out-classed Qileng. The only question for Rosas is whether he sinks in the submission or opts to finish his opponent with ground strikes on this night.
Parlay Leg 2: Yazmin Jauregui by Finish (+250)
This finish prop is simply mispriced for a fighter who has a massive striking edge. Yazmin Jauregui has seven career knockouts in her 11 victories with UFC 306 opponent Ketlen Souza losing by way of TKO or submission in every one of her career losses. Jauregui will piece up Souza on the feet as long as she can negate any grappling that may come her way. Souza has been stopped by body kicks and leg kicks prior to entering the UFC, leading me to believe there are multiple paths for Jauregui to test her durability. In her last outing, Jauregui landed a total of 42 strikes to the body and legs of her opponent. I will be playing this prop by itself as well on Saturday.
Parlay Leg 3: Diego Lopes by Finish (+165)
Brian Ortega may have legendary durability, but he will need it against the younger, more explosive Diego Lopes. In the first round, I am expecting Lopes to test just how much damage Ortega is able to absorb. Ortega’s previous opponent, Yair Rodgriguez, was close to getting the finish when they met earlier this year, only adding to the possibility the total damage has started to add up for Ortega. Only one fighter in Lopes’ last four fights has made it past the first frame, and if Ortega can’t get this fight to the mat, it’s a near certainty he is going to eat some potential fight-ending strikes.
UFC 306 Parlay:
- Raul Rosas Jr. by KO/TKO or submission (-330)
- Yazmin Jauregui by KO/TKO or submission (+250)
- Diego Lopes by KO/TKO or submission (+165)
UFC 306 Parlay: +1108 (FanDuel)
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UFC 306 Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays on DraftKings offer a great way to correlate results to maximize your payout. At UFC 306, I have spotted an opportunity to do just that in the UFC 306 co-main event trilogy bout between champion Alexa Grasso and former titleholder Valentina Shevchenko.
These women are obviously very evenly matched, but if there is one thing giving Shevchenko the potential edge to regain her title, it is her ability to wrestle. The former flyweight champion has 63% takedown accuracy and averaged 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes.
In each of the first two matchups with Grasso, Shevchenko landed exactly four takedowns. While you can’t always bank on fights playing out in a similar fashion, we have seen these women in the octagon for a substantial amount of time together, and it’s clear what the game plan will include for Shevchenko in order to get her title back. I am including four takedowns in the parlay for the former champion.
In Round 1 of their first bout, the fighters landed a total of 50 significant strikes. In their rematch, things started a little slower because Shevchenko was able to get Grasso to the mat in the first frame. Shevchenko still landed 14 significant strikes, and thus, 15 is more than attainable. She has averaged 20 per first round in their two fights. Therefore, a first-round takedown and 15 significant strikes by Shevchenko will also be included.
Lastly, it’s difficult to envision either woman getting a finish on Saturday. Oddsmakers line the Over 4.5 r0unds at -250, or a 71.4% win probability. I see this fight going the distance. If Shevchenko can implement her grappling and control this fight, a total of 80 significant strikes over the course of five rounds seems very plausible, a number she has reached in both Grasso fights, with an average of 85.5 significant strikes landed over her last four bouts in total.
Thus, my UFC 306 same-game parlay is:
- Valentina Shevchenko – moneyline (3 way)
- Decision – exact method of victory
- 1+ – Shevchenko takedowns round 1
- 15+ – Shevchenko total significant strikes round 1
- 4+ – Shevchenko total takedowns
- 80+ – Shevchenko total significant strikes
UFC 306 SGP with Valentina Shevchenko: +550 (DraftKings)
