Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines with UFC 306 predictions for Saturday, September 14, as we see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the pay-per-view event.
UFC 306, also called UFC Noche, takes place at the cutting-edge Sphere in Las Vegas. Prelims are available on ESPN+ (7:30 p.m. ET) and ESPNews (8 p.m. ET) before the main card on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 306 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 306 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Sean O'Malley (-135) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+114)
The UFC 306 main event features "Sugar" Sean O'Malley defending his bantamweight title for the second time when he meets everyone's favorite Mexican fighter, Merab Dvalishvili.
O'Malley claimed the title by defeating Dvalishvili's friend and training partner Aljamain Sterling, and he then held on to it by dominating Marlon "Chito" Vera back in March.
The Sterling fight was somewhat tainted by the quick turnaround for Aljo, who very publicly stated he didn't want to take that fight yet. Prior to that, O'Malley had a controversial decision win over Petr Yan, as well as an earlier loss to Chito on his record.
Point is, you can poke plenty of holes in the resume for O'Malley.
On the other side, Dvalishvili has won 10 straight fights without a single questionable decision along the way. It's concerning that he has just one finish in that streak, but his wrestling-heavy game plan usually makes the results very clear.
Public money is starting to flood in on the O'Malley side; he opened at plus-money and was -110 this time last week. I'm betting on challenger Dvalishvili here, but we can probably wait until Friday or Saturday and get an even better line.
Verdict: Merab Dvalishvili undervalued
Alexa Grasso (-122) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+102)
The second title fight on the UFC 306 card is a trilogy match between current champion Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko.
Grasso initially won the belt from Shevchenko as a massive (+575) underdog before fighting to a split draw against the former champion a year ago. The 10-8 fifth round in Grasso's favor that preserved her title was a bit questionable, though the fight was extremely close and it's hard to argue with a draw as the correct result.
Being another year removed from that fight probably benefits Grasso, who's both five years younger and has considerably fewer miles on the odometer than Shevchenko with her extensive kickboxing background.
History tells us that the younger fighter and the previous winner both fare better in rematches, both of which point to the current champ. I like Grasso in this one, but jump on it now as the line has been slowly drifting her way in recent days. The best line is -120 at Betway.
Verdict: Alexa Grasso undervalued
Ronaldo Rodriguez (-130) vs. Ode' Osborne (+110)
Money has started to push this line a bit closer after Ronaldo Rodriguez opened in the -160 range depending on the book.
I'm not entirely sure why. Rodriguez is just 1-0 in the UFC, but the 25-year-old is riding a six-fight winning streak since losing a reasonably competitive decision on the Contender Series in 2020.
Ode' Osborne is 1-3 across his last four fights with the only win being a somewhat-debatable split decision over Charles Johnson.
The resume has aged a bit better for Osborne (he knocked out the fighter who beat Rodriguez on the Contender Series), but it's reasonable to assume that Rodriguez is getting better at his age.
We can probably wait for an even better line, but I'd be fine taking Rodriguez at +130 on DraftKings or Caesars Sportsbook on Monday.
Verdict: Ronaldo Rodriguez undervalued
