Check out our UFC props for UFC 306 with our favorite long-shot prop bets for Saturday, September 14.
UFC 306, also called UFC Noche, takes place on Saturday at Sphere in Las Vegas. Prelims are available on ESPN+ (7:30 p.m. ET) and then ESPNews (8 p.m. ET) before the five-fight UFC 306 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
With 10 fights, UFC 306 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found a handful they like for tonight's one-of-a-kind Sphere card.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC 306 odds for matchups as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 306 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC 306 Props With MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Lian Heslin: Sneaky Submission Play
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
Edgar Chairez (+245) is an underdog against Joshua Van (-305) in their opener on the ESPNews-televised prelims for UFC 306. However, Chairez is coming into this fight under more favorable circumstances with a full camp. Van, meanwhile, is replacing Kevin Borjas, whom he previously defeated. However, Van is coming off a vicious loss to Charles Johnson in July, and now he's taking this UFC 306 bout on short notice.
Chairez has recorded four submission attempts in three UFC fights for a ridiculous 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He recorded two submission attempts against grappling ace Tatsuro Taira, and he then submitted Daniel Lacerda (but a referee error made it a no-contest).
Chairez has finished all 11 of his professional victories, posting a 0-3 career record to the decision (albeit against quality opponents in Alberto Trujillo 9-4, Clayton Carpenter 7-0 and Taira 16-0). The majority of his wins are via submission, yet it is his widest-priced method-of-victory prop against Van.
I would understand this if Van were a lights-out grappler, but he has conceded three takedowns and three minutes of control in his four UFC fights, and he was submitted by 3-2 professional fighter Devin Jackson on the regional scene in 2021 in Jackson's only career win via submission.
When you couple that with the fact sharp markets are sitting +400-plus on the inside-the-distance prop and +700 to +850 on the submission prop, this seems like a great angle to attack at significant plus money.
Van is very young at 22, and he has been clipped and rocked by Borjas, Felipe Bunes and Johnson. Se could get hurt again in this fight, and Chairez can close the show with strikes (4-0 record to the KO/TKO) or with the club-and-sub abilities he demonstrated against David Macias Ruiz and Gianni Vasquez regionally. Give me the Mexican underdog on Saturday night at Sphere.
The Picks: Edgar Chairez wins by finish (+600 at FanDuel) | Chairez by submission (+1100 Hard Rock & Betfred)
Bryan Fonseca: SGP Boost for Yazmin Jauregui
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
In case you missed it, I already have a full Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza preview for UFC 306 available.
The expectation is that Jauregui (-470), the card's second-biggest favorite after opener Raul Rosas Jr., handles business this weekend in an important strawweight battle against Souza (+360) in the prelims.
I said I'd play the decision, and I have, which is now at -150 on FanDuel. But, as mentioned in the preview, the stoppage will be worth a look.
The best I'm seeing for a KO/TKO is +330 on FanDuel, but bet365 has a same game parlay with the stoppage & Under 1.5 rounds boosted to +600.
The case is simple: Jauregui is heavy-handed with real finishing ability, having won seven of 11 times by KO or TKO, including once in the UFC against Istela Nunes.
Souza, who has eight of her 14 wins by KO/TKO, projects to be a willing trade partner on the feet, and she's actually been stopped twice – once in Round 1 in 2020 – and both pre-UFC days.
Souza has also fought six times at flyweight (125 pounds) or bantamweight (135) while Jauregui has been a strawweight (115) for all but one fight – her 2018 pro debut first.
Coming back down in weight could be dangerous and lead to KO/TKO losses in combat sports, especially early. Additionally, both of Souza's KO/TKO losses arrived at this weight.
Of Jauregui's KO/TKO wins, five of seven came Under 1.5 rounds, and none after Round 2, so you could split the KO/TKO in Round 1 and Round 2, specifically, at hefty odds depending on the book (+500 ish and +800 or so, respectively). But I'd rather just take a nibble at with the bet365 boost.
The Pick: SGP – Yazmin Jauregui & Under 1.5 rounds (boosted to +600 at bet365)
Dan Tom: Hot Rounds for Bahamondes
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to go back to the well and target some potential "hot rounds" in a preliminary attraction between Manuel Torres (-120) and Ignacio Bahamondes (+100).
Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds in which there's serious potential for a particular party to finish.
In this case, I'm playing into one of my favorite matchup dynamics: first-round finishers with suspect staying power vs. durable, building fighters who pick up late.
Although there's a lot to like about Torres' highlight reel, I believe there's reason to worry about his chances if the Mexican fighter is unable to get Bahamondes out of there early. Aside from only being out of the first round once in his entire career, Torres has looked to tire, in victory or defeat, within the first five minutes of a fight.
Whereas Bahamondes, who's never been stopped by strikes, has proven that he's game to bounce back from adversity and finish fights strong regardless of the result.
Add in the fact that roughly half of Bahamondes' finishes come after the first frame, and I'll gladly sprinkle on the Chilean to win in Rounds 2 or 3 given the attractive numbers attached.
BetMGM
The Picks: Ignacio Bahamondes in Round 2 (+700 at FanDuel) | Bahamondes in Round 3 (+1200 at Betfred & Hard Rock)
Tony Sartori: Submission Odds Too Juicy for T-City
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC 306 main card features a featherweight bout between No. 3-ranked contender Brian Ortega (+150) and No. 13 Diego Lopes (-180). This play is more so because of sheer principle: I don't care who the opponent is – Ortega should not be catching +850 on a submission prop against a single 145-pounder in the UFC.
This line is even longer than it was when this fight was originally scheduled for UFC 303, and I don't think Lopes' recent win over Dan Ige should have any bearing on this number.
I am a huge fan of Lopes and the run he's on, and he is correctly priced as the betting favorite. However, at some point, we have to see whether the hype is correctly earned.
Saturday is when we find out. Ortega is still one of the best featherweights on the planet (even though he is moving up to lightweight after this scrap).
And, while I do appreciate Lopes and his potential, I think we need to pump the breaks on this hype until he beats a guy of Ortega's caliber. Lopes is still a guy who lost his first two opportunities in the UFC, and his wins have come against Gavin Tucker (3-3 last six fights), Pat Sabatini (1-2 last three fights), Sodiq Yusuff (2-3 last five fights) and Ige (4-6 last 10 fights).
Lopes is likely to win the exchanges on the feet, but he's not going to knock out Ortega. Ortega's two "TKO" losses are by doctor's stoppage and a freak accident of a dislocated shoulder, and Lopes isn't going to bring the violence that Max Holloway brought to cause a doctor's intervention.
You're also not going to submit Ortega. So that means that we are likely to see 15 minutes of action, and I just don't see a world where you can't justify taking a shot on Ortega to lock in a submission at +850 across those 15 minutes against a still very unproven (but rising) fighter.
The Pick: Brian Ortega by submission (+850 at BetRivers)
Dann Stupp: Backing Lopes and Fading Ortega's Chin
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
I'm a newly turned 46-year-old who doesn't feel a single day over the age of 70.
This morning, I woke up my dog when my elbow joint popped so loudly that he'd sworn I'd been shot. My primary physical has resorted to asking me "What's right?" instead of "What's wrong?" with a little extra sass these days. And don't even get me started on my ability to sleep – while standing/swaying – during one of my half-dozen overnight jaunts to the pisser.
Point is, getting old sucks, fight fans. And you just don't realize how quickly your youth and vitality have evaporated until they're little more than a mirage in the Chihuahuan Desert of northern Mexico.
Although Brian Ortega has arguably proven a more accomplished athlete than yours truly (the debate rages on), I gotta imagine the wear and tear on the 33-year-old "T-City" is starting to feel like that of a mid-40s sports editor. Granted, Ortega's two official TKO losses were due to a doctor's stoppage and a shoulder injury, but as we've learned in this soul-crushing sport, everyone has a chin right up until the point they don't.
Facing wild, heavy-handed and surging Diego Lopes (-185) on Saturday's UFC 306 main card, Ortega (+154) might as well be fighting Father Time. And Father Time has a pretty nasty ground game that could keep Saturday night's bout upright and fought standing. And there, the younger Lopes should have a very clear durability edge over Ortega.
Ortega has been one of the better MMA ambassadors over the past decade, but at UFC 306, Lopes could be poised for a violent changing of the guard.
The Pick: Diego Lopes by KO/TKO/DQ (+300 at BetRivers)
Clint MacLean: 9-1 KO Bet for Champ
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET
We have watched UFC women's flyweight champion Alexa Grasso (-130) and Valentina Shevchenko (+110) fight for nearly 40 minutes total now.
In the UFC 306 co-main event on Saturday, we are set for another fight between the two best female fighters at 125 pounds on the planet, and the biggest thing that has stood out to me in the first two fights is that Grasso is by far the more dangerous fighter.
Shevchenko is a technical striker who uses her power and wrestling to control the younger fighter, but any time the fight turns into a bit of a brawl, Grasso is the one doing damage. In the first fight, she won a scramble and choked out Shevchenko. In the second fight, Shevchenko let her guard down, and Grasso tagged her and wobbled her badly.
Ahead of the third fight, Shevchenko has made it clear that she believes she needs a finish to win this fight because the judges will not treat her fairly. That tells me she will be more aggressive in this trilogy bout, and if Valentina gets more aggressive, that will force Grasso to match her energy and create openings for the champion.
I believe the age is catching up to Shevchenko, and her durability is starting to crack. Grasso could catch her and then grab a neck again, but I expect her to go for the kill and get it done with her hands on Saturday.
The Pick: Alexa Grasso by KO/TKO/DQ (+900 at BetRivers)
Billy Ward: Long-Shot Fliers for O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
The conventional wisdom surrounding the UFC 306 main event is that it’s a binary fight: Either Sean O’Malley (-125) wins a relatively quick knockout, or Merab Dvalishvili (+105) grinds out a wrestling-heavy decision down the stretch.
Those are certainly the most likely outcomes, especially when considering each fighter’s track record. The champ has six knockouts in 10 UFC wins while the challenger has just one finish in his 10 victories.
Of course, Dvalishvili has also got to fight for five rounds on only one occasion before this. He’s a cardio monster who pushes a ridiculous pace, attempting just under 18 takedowns per 15 minutes.
I don’t think of O’Malley as a cardio liability necessarily, but he’s never had to deal with that kind of constant pressure. Especially over five rounds. O’Malley’s only five-round experience was against Marlon "Chito" Vera, a fellow striker known for his patience in the early going.
Of course, the likeliest outcome to O’Malley hitting the wall is a Dvalishvili decision, but that’s why we’re getting such great odds on the Rounds 4 and 5 props. Those still feel more likely than an early knockout from the Georgian, though, so I like it at these prices.
The Picks: Merab Dvalishvili in Round 4 (+3600 at FanDuel) | Dvalishvili in Round 5 (+4100)
