Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Odds
Check out the Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5, with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
This weekend the UFC returns to Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, for a 12-fight card headlined by a light heavyweight title fight between reigning champion Alex "Poatan" Pereira and No. 8-ranked UFC contender Khalil Rountree Jr.
Pereira, who has become the biggest star in the promotion, seeks his third title defense. The Brazilian has won eight UFC fights, including six by KO/TKO (five performance bonuses). He previously defeated Jan Blachowicz in Salt Lake City at UFC 291, the first of his current four-fight winning streak.
Rountree owns an 8-5-1 promotion record but enters on a five-fight winning streak, including four wins by TKO and three performance bonuses.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 307 main event and utilize those factors to bet on Pereira and Rountree, who should make their main event cage walks at approximately 11:55 p.m. ET on Saturday on ESPN+ PPV.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| Pereira | Rountree | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-2 | 14-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:39 | 7:50 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 7/7/1987 | 2/26/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.2 | 3.8 |
| SS Accuracy | 63% | 39% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.51 | 4.18 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 0% |
| TD Def | 70% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Pereira is taller and longer (3" advantage in both height and reach), but Rountree is the younger, quicker, and potentially more durable athlete.
Rountree's only knockout losses have come by ground and pound (via Ion Cutelaba) and a standing flush elbow straight to the temple from Johnny Walker. Otherwise, Rountree has shown the ability to absorb damage at the UFC level.
Conversely, Pereira has gotten wobbled or hurt by punches in several of his contests; I might give the durability edge to Rountree.
I'd have to favor Peiera, who has five-round experience, on cardio. Rountree has never seen the championship rounds in his professional career; however, his cardio and output across three-round fights suggest that 10 additional minutes shouldn't be a problem.
I'd expect a striker vs. striker matchup, but Peiera possesses the grappling upside. Rountree has never attempted a takedown in the UFC while Pereira has mixed in wrestling and submission attempts in his fights while training with former champion Glover Teixeira.
On the feet, Rountree's southpaw stance – and ability to check kicks – could create a competitive striking matchup. Pereira won't be able to land his preferred calf kick or find his fight-ending check left hook as readily. Moreover, opponents willing to kick with Poatan (Israel Adesanya, Jan Blachowicz) have earned his respect – and have been able to alleviate Pereira's forward pressure.
Statistically, Pereira is the more efficient offensive striker (63% vs. 39% strike accuracy) with a combined 114 striking accuracy and defense number, compared to 89 for Rountree, since both defend strikes near 50%.
Much of that accuracy number stems from Pereira's active low-kicking game (he landed 113 of 145 or 78% of leg strikes); I don't expect him to have as much success in that area against Rountree.
If you are even minimally contrarian, it's easy to understand how Pereira may be overrated in the betting markets until he loses again, given his knockout streak and quick-rising stardom.
In Saturday's UFC 307 main event, Pereira will close as a more significant favorite than he has at any point in the UFC. The previous high was -303 in his debut vs. Andreas Michalidis, and Pereira was just -133 (57% implied) to win that fight by KO/TKO.
Pereira's consensus KO/TKO odds for Saturday are -275 (73.3% implied) because of public sentiment about his skill set while facing a challenger who many think "doesn't deserve a title shot."
Pereira vs. Rountree Pick & Prediction
In this matchup, I projected Alex Pereira as a -355 favorite (78% implied). I would wait to bet the underdog Khalil Rountree Jr. at +400 (20% implied) or better, at least a 2% edge compared to my projected line.
As Pereira gets tied into parlays, I'd expect the line to reach +400 by fight time, but I am comfortable taking closer to +375 (21.1% implied) on Rountree if it doesn't get there.
I expect this fight to go the distance about 83% of the time (+481 implied), and I like the Over 1.5 Rounds (-134), Over 2.5 Rounds (+170), Over 3.5 Rounds (+310) and the goes to decision prop (listed +600) for this matchup.
Moreover, I show correlated value on either fighter to win by decision, projecting Pereira at +754 and Rountree at +1720 (+1050 and +1900 listed, respectively).
If I invest in Rountree by decision, it'd likely be to close out a round robin (though his moneyline would also suffice to juice up tickets.
For now, ladder the Overs and wait for a better pre-fight price on the underdog.
The Picks: Over 1.5 Rounds (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings | Over 2.5 Rounds (+170, 0.1u) at BallyBet | Fight Goes to Decision (+600, 0.1u) at FanDuel | Khalil Rountree Jr. (wait for +400)
