Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington Odds
Check out the Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5, with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
Tonight's UFC 307 fight card is absolutely stacked with veterans, and we've got two notable ones in an early preliminary-card matchup.
It features ever-underrated Tecia Pennington (formerly Tecia Torres) and previous UFC champion Carla Esparza.
In my Esparza vs. Pennington preview, I explain why I'm betting against the fighter who already has one foot out of the octagon.
Clint MacLean's Tale of the Tape
| Esparza | Pennington | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-7 | 13-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13;57 | 13:48 |
| Height | 5'1" | 5'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115.5 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 63" | 60" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/10/1987 | 8/16/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.2 | 4.8 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.69 | 3.59 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.22 | 0.61 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 14% |
| TD Def | 47% | 65% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Carla Esparza is coming off a nearly two-year layoff after her loss to champion Zhang Weili at UFC 300.
Esparza initially lost the title to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2015 and re-dedicated herself to reclaiming it over the course of the following seven years. She climbed the ladder using her grinding grappling style until she became undeniable. She then won the title back from Rose Namajunas in controversial fashion, and after losing it to Zhang immediately afterward, we have to wonder how much gas she has left in the tank.
Not only did Esparza take two years off from competition, but during that break, she started a family. When it comes to betting in MMA, there is no room to feel bad for finding an angle.
One of the hardest things to accomplish in MMA is for new mothers to return successfully to such a vicious sport after giving birth. It's been done successfully, but generally speaking, it takes some extended time to get fully back up to speed. In this case, Esparza has confirmed that Saturday’s UFC 307 appearance is her retirement fight, so there is no next fight for her to get back up to speed if she is not all the way back.
Tecia "The Tiny Tornado" Penington recently went through this process herself. She took a break to start a family as well, and while she has bounced back physically, she found herself in back-to-back difficult fights.
Torres is on a two-fight skid with both losses coming by split decision. However, she competed extremely well against both Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci, who are both comfortably in the top 10 of the UFC strawweight contender rankings.
This is a striker vs. grappler fight, and Pennington is a volume striker with a 65% takedown defense rating.
Although Pennington has historically been taken down, she has been very difficult to keep there.
Esparza vs. Pennington Pick & Prediction
Esparza is a chain wrestler, and in the day and age of damage over control, I have to favor the striker here.
If the ex-champ were in her prime and focused on the title, I might be willing to take a shot on her as an underdog. But we have the opposite here.
Coming off an extremely long layoff, having just lost her title, having a child and having confirmed that this will be her final MMA fight? There is simply no way I can look to bet on Carla Esparza in this spot.
This is a favorite-or-pass fight.
The Pick: Tecia Pennington -175 (Caesars)
