Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria Odds
| Almeida Odds | -385 |
| Potieria Odds | +290 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-106 / -122) |
| Location | Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah |
| Fight Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNews |
| UFC 307 odds as of Friday and via FanDuel. Bet on the UFC with our FanDuel promo code. | |
Check out the Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5, with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
Kicking off the regular UFC 307 prelims on ESPNews is a bout between unranked middleweights with Almeida vs. Potieria. On paper and per the oddsmakers, this is one of the most lopsided matchups on the board (though not quite in Kayla Harrison territory).
The steam is heavily on Almeida in this matchup; he opened at -340 on the moneyline and is now listed at -385 at FanDuel at the time of this writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the massive favorite with a prop bet in my Almeida vs. Potieria preview for UFC 307.
Tony Sartori's Tale of the Tape
| Almeida | Potieria | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-1 | 20-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:24 | 6:14 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/28/1988 | 5/29/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.25 | 5.13 |
| SS Accuracy | 61% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.88 | 5.04 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 56% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.o |
I'm not even sure that Almeida is all that great, but I agree with the wide odds given how Potieria should have one foot out of the door by now. A Contender Series veteran, Potieria has found little success in the UFC octagon.
The Ukrainian has lost four of his six fights with two of those coming within the first few minutes of the very first round. His two wins came against a retiring Shogun Rua and Robert Bryczek, who still took the fight despite the advantage of Potieria's weight miss.
I don't rate either of those wins very highly while the losses have been substantial.
He's got a hittable chin that has taken a lot of damage while his submission defense also leaves a lot to be desired once he crumples from the damage.
Speaking of damage, Almeida is capable of delivering it; four of his five professional wins have come by KO/TKO.
Almeida vs. Potieria Pick & Prediction
Not only are oddsmakers expecting Potieria to take care of business, but they are expecting him to do so quickly. The fight ending in Round 1 returns +125 while Rounds 2 and 3 return +260 and +390, respectively.
Meanwhile, the fight going to decision returns +390 as well.
There's just so little to like about Potieria: Michael Pereira was literally doing flips on him prior to recording a first-round submission.
Potieria can't defend the power punch, which is exactly what Almeida brings to the table. Although I believe Almeida knocks him out quickly, I am hedging a bit and just simply taking the first-round prop in case we see a similar result to the Pereira fight.
It seems the UFC is just feeding Potieria to power punchers to bring up those KO/TKO numbers until they eventually cut him, which I imagine will be soon.
The Pick: Cesar Almeida in Round 1 (+180 at FanDuel) | Play to +160
