Court McGee vs. Tim Means Odds
| McGee Odds | +165 |
| Means Odds | -195 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +120) |
| Location | Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah |
| Bout Time | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| UFC 307 odds as of Saturday afternoon and via Caesars. Bet on the UFC with our Caesars Sportsbook promo code! | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Court McGee vs. Tim Means odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5 – my expert UFC pick and prediction.
In the opening bout this weekend, Tim Means is making his 30th walk to the UFC octagon in what will be his 51st overall fight. A pro for more than 20 years, he’s 1-4 in his past five fights against primarily younger, up-and-coming fighters.
That’s not the case this time as he takes on fellow fighter of a certain age in Court McGee. McGee has “only” 22 fights in the UFC, but he's 39 and 0-3 over the past two years.
While the UFC has no formal “masters division” for older fighters, this is a solid bit of matchmaking between two veterans of the sport.
Does it matter to the welterweight rankings? Not a bit. Will it be fun? Probably.
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| McGee | Means | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-13 | 33-16-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:57 | 9:51 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 171 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/12/1984 | 2/20/1984 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| SS Accuracy | 37% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.62 | 3.64 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.84 | 1.16 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 40% |
| TD Def | 69% | 65% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Tim Means was one of the first wave of true mixed martial artists. He began training for the sport of MMA, without a dedicated background in a different combat sport. That’s fairly standard these days, but not so much in the early 2000s.
That makes him an extremely well-rounded fighter with a high-volume striking game, solid takedowns and a sneaky submission game.
Means is tall and long for the division – and split plenty of time at 155 pounds before his 170-pound career – and accentuates that with an upright striking style. That allows him to control the range against shorter fighters, but it also comes at a cost.
Due to being less shielded by his shoulders, Means doesn’t react well to being hit. He had a fairly solid chin throughout much of his career, but he took a bad knockout in April on what didn’t look like an especially powerful shot from Uros Medic.
At his best, McGee keeps opponents on their back foot with forward pressure and volume, including sneaky knees and elbows if they close the distance. He doesn’t have big one-shot power, but he can wear down opponents with a barrage of strikes.
It’s also worth noting that Means is listed as an orthodox fighter but has primarily fought southpaw in recent years.
McGee is a grappler first and foremost, with at least one takedown in every one of his 12 UFC wins. While he has a background in karate and a few pro boxing appearances, he typically struggles when forced to fight standing, and he has knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells in recent fights.
He gets hit more than he should standing, largely thanks to his below-average foot and hand speed. Prior to his recent knockout losses, he’s shown a solid chin, though, with excellent cardio and recovery ability throughout his career.
The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is extremely tough on the ground with heavy top pressure and strong submission abilities. He doesn’t do enough damage on the ground for my taste, but he typically opts for submissions that don’t give up position, allowing him to control the fight.
That should match up well with Means, who likes to go for submissions from his back that should allow McGee to advance position.
McGee vs. Means Pick & Prediction
I was somewhat surprised to see the opening line for this fight, which had Means in the range of a -250 favorite at early-posting books.
That’s been bet down a little bit toward the McGee side, but I’m still seeing some value on the underdog.
McGee’s cardio and recovery ability pair well with Means’ attritional damage-based style. Means doesn’t have the power to put down McGee with one shot, and relying on a speed and volume edge as a 40-year-old isn’t ideal.
The fight likely comes down to McGee’s ability to land takedowns in at least two of the three rounds. I’m not entirely confident he will, but I’d make his chances better than his +175 moneyline suggests. That also makes his +3.5 point spread bet on DraftKings interesting when it becomes available, as you're effectively betting on McGee to just land one takedown.
I'm personally taking a half unit on McGee's moneyline now while looking to bet another half unit on his spread, depending on the odds, closer to fight time.
It's also worth noting that this is essentially a home game for McGee, who lives and trains in Utah. Normally, I'd also consider that a cardio edge, but Means resides at similar elevation in Albuquerque. Still, it can't hurt the cause for McGee.
The Bet: Court McGee +175 (Caesars)
