Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison Odds
Check out the Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5, with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
The UFC 307 main card features a women's bantamweight fight with title implications with Harrison vs. Vieira.
Harrison, the first American to win a gold medal in judo at the Olympics, stormed onto the UFC scene earlier this year with a dominant win over former champion Holly Holm.
Vieira, on the other hand, has been trying to gather enough consistency to break through to the top of the weight class for some time now.
And with the bantamweight belt being up for grabs in the main event, the stage is now set for a new contender to emerge.
Here's my Harrison vs. Vieira preview and breakdown.
Dan Tom's Tale of the Tape
| Vieira | Harrison | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-3 | 17-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:22 | 6:47 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/26/1991 | 7/2/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.04 | 7.52 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 71% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.92 | 0.29 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 83% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.51 | 4.42 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 40% |
| TD Def | 92% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 2.2 |
Harrison and Vieira come from judo backgrounds but have steadily rounded out their games since competing in mixed martial arts.
Training under the great Andre Pederneiras, Vieira has steadily shown the striking savvy of her Nova Uniao stablemates. Whether she's returning cross-hook combinations off inside parries or is punctuating an exchange with a hard low kick, the Brazilian can more than hold her own in striking stanzas.
Although you'd expect Vieira to be more active in clinches, she does a good job of turning her opponent's mistakes into offense, scoring a majority of her takedowns in this space. However, in more recent fights, she's shown to dust off her regional wrestling accolades in regard to her shot selection of doubles and singles in open space.
And when the fight hits the floor, Vieira is a patient submission-oriented fighter, leaning heavily on control and positional advances.
Vieira has done a better job of scoring with strikes when in dominant positions, but she'll need to work extra hard to hold down someone like Harrison.
Although she hasn't been on her back much, Harrison has shown solid scrambling urgency and the ability to re-wrestle in her series with Larissa Pacheco in the PFL.
Harrison is also good about securing positions, preferring to use more wrestling-style rides in her approach. In fact, since working with American Top Team, she's seamlessly integrated wrestling and jiu-jitsu into her existing skill set and intentions.
And as far as Harrison's striking goes, the 34-year-old appears to be getting only more comfortable each time out.
From hard southpaw kicks to basic, on-balance boxing, Harrison seems to understand the importance of establishing threats in order to build into offense.
Vieira vs. Harrison Pick & Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public heavily favor the American fighter, listing Harrison -1100 and Vieira +650 at Betway as of this writing.
Considering whom Harrison is often compared to, it's no surprisd to see Ronda Rousey-like odds attached to her fights. That said, no matter how much I agree with who is favored, I tend to take these wide betting spreads with a grain of salt and don't blame anyone for betting the underdog out of principle.
As for me, I'll be targeting a more happy and playable medium in this matchup.
I was pleasantly surprised to see the totals in playable ranges, and I very much like the Over 2.5 rounds in this fight.
Aside from her judo and wrestling base, Vieira is a skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who – outside of another perfectly placed knockout punch a la Irene Aldana – has been a durable, stymying fighter throughout her career.
And if Vieira can somehow score the upset, then it'll likely be by decision given her slow burn style (as well as Harrison's shown durability and fighting spirit).
For that reason, I believe that that over is the most sensible angle on this fight.
The Pick: Vieira vs. Harrison – Over 2.5 rounds (-150 at Betway)
