Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo Odds
Check out the Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5, with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
The ESPNews-televised prelims for this weekend's fight card include an intriguing clash at strawweight with ranked contenders in Rodriguez vs. Lucindo.
When the fight opened, it was a near pick'em. However, early bettors pounced on some early value.
Is there any value left? Yes, indeed.
Let's dive in with my Rodriguez vs. Lucindo preview and breakdown.
Dann Stupp's Tale of the Tape
| Rodriguez | Lucindo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-4-2 | 16-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:07 | 13:26 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/29/1987 | 6/8/2002 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.82 | 3.95 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.12 | 3.11 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 66% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.23 | 2.23 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 53% |
| TD Def | 65% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.3 |
Rodriguez limps into this fight on a 1-3 skid. The 37-year-old, who was once one of the division's most promising contenders, suffered a split-decision loss to Jessica Andrade in her most recent bout.
Lucindo, 15 years her opponent's junior, has won three straight UFC fights with an overall 10-1 run dating back to 2019. The 22-year-old made his her pro debut as a 15-year-old in 2017 (just two years after Rodriguez) and has been busy ever since.
So, though this may be young blood vs. old blood, it's not prospect vs. veteran. Both fighters are seasoned with plenty of experience on MMA's biggest stage, so we largely know what we're getting on Saturday night.
Rodriguez should be the sharper striker, but Lucindo will have the speed advantage. Additionally, I'm not sure Rodriguez's striking will even be even moderately better given her age and the wear and tear she's endured in recent years.
Most importantly, though, Lucindo has takedown ability in her back pocket, and her wrestling and grappling should be a significant difference-marker here. With 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 53% success rate, the Brazilian will be able to get this fight to the ground.
Plus, with Rodriguez's shoddy takedown defense (42%) and her willingness to stay on her back/her inability to reliably get up, she could easily bleed away all three rounds if Lucindo finds her entries on fight night.
Rodriguez vs. Lucindo Pick & Prediction
Ah, if we could only go back in time and bet this fight at its open. Obviously, getting Lucindo at the -120 opener would've been a real score in terms of closing line value.
Still, I believe Lucindo wins this fight about 70% of the time (-233 implied odds), so I still see some solid value with the -175 line available at bet365 at the time of this writing. I'd comfortably play Lucindo's moneyline to -200.
I wouldn't fault you for sticking Rodriguez in a parlay (UFC 307 co-headliner Raquel Pennington and the champ's wife/UFC 307 prelim fighter Tecia Torres are both solid options for an all-ladies parlay). But I don't think there's a need to get fancy.
Give me Lucindo straight up, and let's hope this youngster takes the next step in her career.
The Pick: Iasmin Lucindo moneyline (-175 at bet365)
