Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland Odds
| Dolidze Odds | +125 |
| Holland Odds | -150 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-225 / +170) |
| Location | Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah |
| Fight Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 307 odds as of Thursday and via Caesars. Bet on the UFC with our Caesars Sportsbook promo code. | |
Check out the Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5 with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
For his second consecutive fight, Georgian grappler Roman Dolidze is stepping up on short notice to fill a main-card spot on an Alex Pereira-led pay-per-view fight card.
This time he's had a bit more than a month to prepare for his matchup with Kevin Holland, and he's fortunately fighting at his natural 185-pound weight class after beating Anthony Smith in the 205-pound light-heavyweight division last time.
Holland has fluctuated between welterweight and middleweight with a submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk in his return to the heavier division. He will definitely be the smaller athlete this time, which will be a factor with my Dolidze vs. Holland bet at UFC 307.
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Dolidze | Holland | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-3 | 26-11 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:52 | 10:49 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 81" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/15/1988 | 11/5/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.13 | 4.25 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.37 | 3.20 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.26 | 0.84 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 38% |
| TD Def | 33% | 54% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0.6 |
I’ve seen some talks of this being a “striker vs. grappler” matchup with former ADCC competitor Dolidze as the grappler. That’s not an entirely unfair characterization, but it also doesn’t tell the full story.
Holland is also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (under former UFC title challenger Travis Lutter) with an underrated submission game. The public views him more as a striker due to his unwillingness to grapple, not necessarily his inability to.
Holland’s past three submission wins came without landing a takedown, and he foolishly let Stephen Thompson stand up after taking him down on two separate occasions during his TKO loss to the Wonderman in 2022.
All of which speaks to my biggest problem with Kevin Holland: He often is more interested in putting on fun fights and cashing performance-bonus checks than he is in winning fights. He’s skilled in all aspects of MMA, but he doesn’t always take the obvious path to success.
On the plus side, his desire to mix it up on the feet is probably the correct game plan this time out against Dolidze.
“The Caucasian” is a high-level no-gi grappler. While he hasn’t picked up any submission wins in the UFC, he often uses submission threats to transition to dominant positions where he can finish fights with strikes.
Dolidze has improved his standup game in recent fights too. He often fights southpaw, and he likes to lead with kicks from his rear leg at range to keep opponents uncomfortable. The downside of that style is giving opponents opportunities for takedowns – but Dolidze’s elite grappling is a deterrent there.
He’ll be at a speed disadvantage against Holland striking, but Dolidze throws the more powerful single strikes standing. That’s concerning for Holland, who's taken a lot of damage in his career and was rocked twice by Oleksijczuk before the Polish fighter followed him to the ground and got himself submitted.
If Dolidze is able to hurt Holland, “Trailblazer” won’t be able to bail himself out with easy submission opportunities. That’s a big if of course, given the speed and length edge Holland will enjoy on the feet.
Dolidze vs. Holland Pick & Prediction
As much as I respect the grappling game of Holland, the combination of skill and size from Dolidze will be too much for him – if the fight gets to the mat.
The UFC has intentionally matched Holland with strikers in the majority of his recent fights, including the original booking against Chris Curtis. That’s not a coincidence; matchmakers know they’ll get a more entertaining fight that way.
I don’t think Dolidze cares much about that, and he will be looking to press his advantage here. I’m not entirely confident he’ll be able to land takedowns – but we’re also getting plus-money on the Dolidze side.
You could make a case for Dolidze by finish (or in the finish-only markets) since he’s likely to lose some rounds based on striking damage but will have more opportunities to finish things on the mat.
I’ll be taking a slight sprinkle at the former due to the juicy +550 odds, but my official pick is Dolidze straight up on the moneyline at +125 via Caesars.
The Pick: Roman Dolidze +125 (Caesars)
