Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux Odds
Check out the Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5 with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
Saint Preux vs. Spann was initially booked for a Fight Night event just four weeks ago, but the fighters have been upgraded to a pay-per-view card and a slot as the featured early prelim on ESPN+.
The reason the fight fell out the first time was because OSP apparently got sick after weighing in. Hopefully the 41-year-old has been able to completely recover in the four weeks since the original booking.
However, there are new challenges for both fighters on Saturday, so I'm tapping into the props market for my Spann vs. St. Preux pick at UFC 307.
Clint MacLean's Tale of the Tape
| Spann | Saint Preux | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-10 | 27-17 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:35 | 9:39 |
| Height | 6'5" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/24/1991 | 4/8/1983 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.25 | 3.03 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.89 | 3.32 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.34 | 1.10 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 36% |
| TD Def | 47% | 67% |
| Submission Avg | 1.5 | 0.5 |
UFC 307 will take place in the elevation of Salt Lake City at nearly 4,000 feet above sea level. And neither Spann nor Saint Preux is known for his cardio.
When OSP was in his prime, he was able to drag fights to the mat and use his size and grappling advantage to outlast lesser fighters. That was a long time ago, though. The 205-pounder is 3-3 in his past six fights, and two of those wins were by split decision.
In fact, Saint Preux's only finish victory in his past six fights comes over Alonzo Menifield in 2020.
There was a notion that OSP had “turned back the clock,” but the truth is he barely scraped by.
His UFC 307 opponent, Spann, has essentially spent his career as a Round 1-or-bust fighter. At 33, Spann has won only three decisions in his entire career, and the last one was a split decision over Sam Alvey in 2022, which I frankly felt he deserved to lose.
Since the loss to Alvey, Spann has had eight UFC fights with six ending in the first round. This man lives and dies by the sword.
Spann will be two inches taller than OSP, but Saint Preux will have a one-inch reach advantage.
Even though Saint Preux is 41, he might be the more durable of the two at this stage in his career. Spann has a bad tendency to get rocked very easily, so if he doesn't land first or if OSP can take that first punch, Spann might be in trouble.
Spann vs. Saint Preux Pick & Prediction
With this fight taking place at elevation, cardio could be a problem for both fighters. But with the way Spann fights, it just might not be an issue.
At the end of the day, I have to side with the younger and more explosive fighter, but there is no way I can lay a price like -250 on a fighter as untrustworthy as Spann.
It's a prop on Spann – or pass altogether – for this light-heavyweight clash.
The Pick: Ryan Spann in Round 1 (+225 at BetRivers)
