Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley Odds
Check out the Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5, with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
The last fight you'll see before UFC 307 cuts to the pay-per-view main card will be this one.
We could be in for an insanely fun bout at welterweight featuring former championship challenger Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson (17-7, 8 KOs, 1 SUB) and rising contender Joaquin Buckley (19-6, 13 KOs).
Thompson, a gray beard at 41 years old, is coming off a submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov in December after being grounded and given a rear-naked choke at the end of Round 2.
Thompson has lost three of his last four fights, and he has only four wins across his last 11 going back to his UFC 205 draw with Tyron Woodley in November 2016.
Buckley is undefeated since his knockout loss since his slight upset (and knockout) loss to Chris Curtis at UFC 282 in December 2022. Since then, he's won four straight bouts, capped off with a decision win over Nursulton Ruziboev in May. Buckley also knocked out Vicente Luque in March and is 9-4 with six KOs in the UFC.
For what it's worth, Thompson is ranked No. 9 and Buckley No. 11 in the UFC welterweight contender rankings, but if you follow MMA, you know that mattering is, uh … questionable, we'll say.
Bryan Fonseca's Tale of the Tape
| Thompson | Buckley | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-7-1 | 19-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:37 | 10:13 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 171 lbs. | 170.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 2/11/1983 | 4/27/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.11 | 4.25 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 36% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.26 | 1.69 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 44% |
| TD Def | 65% | 69% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Thompson is the A-side but the underdog.
Age will be a factor here. Buckley, 30, is a 2-1 favorite and has also been in much better form given his recent ascent.
We've always been curious as to whether or not Buckley is a legitimate contender, and this will be his fraud check.
Thompson isn't what he was eight years ago, but he's still capable of knocking out aspiring contenders. He decisioned a rising Geoff Neal in an eerily similar spot in 2020. The Texan was 30, and that was more of a 50-50 bout, but Neal – who entered 13-2 and with a seven-fight winning streak, including five KOs – was outclassed by the older Thompson, who swept his way to a 50-45 unanimous decision.
Thompson also knocked off a 17-6-1 Vicente Luque, then 27, in 2019. Luque had won six straight with four stoppage victories. Thompson also handled Luque by unanimous decision by two scores of 30-26 and a third of 29-27. These were back-to-back wins for Wonderboy following two straight losses, and he was more than two and a half years removed from his noteworthy two fights with Woodley.
Buckley is getting an older version of Thompson, but this is the bout that will confirm to perhaps both the UFC and us consumers whether he is a legit contender or if he's going to become a Uriah Hall-type gatekeeper who is explosive and talented but never truly put it all together.
Buckley has a one-inch reach advantage at 76 inches to Wonderboy's 75 despite being only 5-foot-8 against a 6-footer. Buckley is explosive and powerful, but he could also just ground Thompson and attempt to ensure he doesn't get leg and head kicked to death against the crafty veteran.
I think it's a fascinating fight, there's a legit pathway to victory for each side, but Buckley is the deserved favorite because of age and superior finishing ability, even as Wonderboy has questions about his opponent's gas tank.
Thompson vs. Buckley Pick & Prediction
I think Buckley passes the test, in part because Thompson could be slightly too old to instruct it.
Thompson has several losses but has only been knocked out once, and that was in 2019 against Anthony Pettis.
For this fight, the KO/TKO is tantalizing, but I'll take Buckley on points at +140 via FanDuel. I do think Thompson by points at +290 is really bet-worthy, and it's how I'd go if I thought Buckley would lose this fight. But I think Buckley handles business here, so I'm going with the method-of-victory prop bet.
Enjoy the fight, and don't go broke!
The Pick: Joaquin Buckley by decision (+140 at FanDuel)
