UFC 307 Odds, Predictions for All 12 Fights With Sean Zerillo’s Betting Breakdown & Preview for Saturday, October 5

Check out the official UFC 307 odds and betting lines with my predictions for all 12 fights for Saturday's pay-per-view from Salt Lake City, Utah, including the Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. title fight and main event.

Below, I take a look at all of the latest UFC 307 odds and break down and predict each bout on tonight's pay-per-view fight card.

Here's how to watch UFC 307: The 3-bout early preliminary card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before the 4-bout regular prelims kick off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews. The 5-fight main card then starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view (PPV cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 307 odds, this event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 307 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC 307 odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 307 with our DraftKings promo code.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 307 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 12 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings

UFC 307 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Preview

Court McGee vs. Tim Means

Crowdsourced Projections: Tim Means (58.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Court McGee vs. Tim Means preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

The 39-year-old Court McGee will make his 23rd and likely final walk to the UFC octagon on Saturday in his home state of Utah. McGee enters on a three-fight losing skid with losses in eight of his past 11 fights, but he will be getting a soft landing spot against 40-year-old Tim Means rather than some young, hungry prospect.

Means is the bigger fighter (3" taller) and the more technical boxer. Still, McGee has the grappling upside and is a relatively proactive wrestler attempts 3.4 takedowns per five minutes at distance, 25% accuracy) with strong top pressure.

The Utah native will have better cardio – in a fight card contested at elevation – and I'd expect him to win the third round of this contest at a reasonably high clip.

I project value on McGee prefight (to +150), but I suspect you'll find a better live price after Round 1. I also show slight value on McGee to win by decision (projected +267, listed +340 at BetRivers).

Bets

• Court McGee (+170, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Court McGee Live after Round 1

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Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington

Crowdsourced Projections: Tecia Pennington (69.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington preview from my colleague Clint Maclean.

Carla Esparza is returning from a lengthy layoff (she last competed at UFC 281 in November 2022) for her 16th and final UFC bout on Saturday after giving birth in September 2023.

She will face Tecia Pennington, who gave birth in June 2023 and lost a pair of close split decisions in her past two fights. Before her pregnancy layoff, 11 of 18 media scorecards and 69% of fans had Pennington winning against MacKenzie Dern. And for her return fight in May, seven of 13 media scorecards and 71% of fans scored the bout for Pennington against Tabatha Ricci.

Esparza is a proactive wrestler (averages 5.5 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 35% accuracy), and she seems likely to get Pennington down (66% defense) in Round 1. Still, Pennington is good at scrambling back to her feet, and Esparza – who isn't an outstanding athlete or strong for the division – struggles to keep her opponents flat on the mat.

Pennington is the far superior striker (+2.4 to -0.7 strike differential per minute) with the better gas tank, and I expect her to deny takedowns and land damage more readily the longer the fight goes.

As a result, I like Tecia Pennington's moneyline prefight at -205 or better (projected -225), but I anticipate an opportunity for a better live price after round 1; Esparza should get an early takedown.

In the winning-method market, I lean toward Pennington by KO/TKO (projected +862, listed +1100), and her Round 2 (+2000) or Round 3 (+2400) props as Esparza tires.

Bets

• Tecia Pennington (-175, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Tecia Pennington Live after Round 1

Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux

Crowdsourced Projections: Ryan Spann (66.6%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux preview from my colleague Clint Maclean.

Fighting at altitude is a potentially disastrous decision for Ryan Spann, whose cardio and effectiveness typically drop substantially after five minutes at sea level.

That's not to say that I trust the gas tank or chin of 41-year-old Ovince Saint Preux (OSP), who pulled off an impressive effort as a big underdog in his last fight against Kennedy Nzechukwu after his chin looked entirely shot in consecutive knockout losses to Jamhal Hill, Tanner Boser and Phillipe Lins (with an ugly split decision against Shogun Rua mixed in).

Spann is good for a few big explosions per fight – and will either look for a knockout blow or quick submission to get Saint Preux out of there early.

Still, despite being eight years younger, Spann is the likelier of the pair to quit down the stretch while Saint Preux maintains a consistent tempo throughout.

I'd want +225 or better to play OSP prefight.

The likeliest outcome is for Spann to win in Round 1 (listed +195), but I'd wait to live bet OSP after Round 1 or sprinkle his odds to win in Round 2 (+1400) or Round 3 (+1800) prefight.

Bets

• Ovince Saint Preux wins in Round 2 (+1400, 0.05u) at FanDuel
• Ovince Saint Preux wins in Round 3 (+1800, 0.05u) at FanDuel
• Ovince Saint Preux Live after Round 1

Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potiera

Crowdsourced Projections: Cesar Almeida (76%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out my colleague Tony Sartori's Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potiera preview.

Almeida, who has a kickboxing win over UFC 307 headliner and champ Alex Pereira, has shown a severe grappling deficiency (56% takedown defense) but will get a better stylistic matchup on Saturday with fellow striker Ihor Potieria, who has been finished in each of his four UFC losses.

Potieria is the younger, quicker athlete and could potentially land more volume in a 15-minute fight, but Almeida is more aggressive, powerful and durable, and he's favored to win in Round 1 (+180).

I wouldn't trust Almeida's cardio if he were forced to grapple, but he shouldn't tire much in a distance kickboxing match.

I don't project value on the moneyline or total in this matchup; if I had to pick a play, I would lean toward Almeida in Round 2 (+370) or Round 3 (+550), but the prices aren't actionable at current odds.

Bets

• Pass

Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez

Crowdsourced Projections: Alexander Hernandez (59.8%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez preview from my colleague Clint MacLean.

Alexander Hernandez has always profiled as an early finisher who fades the longer his fights extend. At the same time, Austin Hubbard is a durable point fighter who relies on cardio to rally against opponents, making this an ideal stylistic matchup if he can whether the storm in Round 1.

Hernandez should have a physical advantage at the opening bell, which will become less impactful the longer the fight extends.

Both men train at altitude in Colorado, but Hubbard has the better gas tank; Hernandez consistently slows in the second and third rounds.

As a result, I'd live bet Hubbard after Round 1.

Still, I also like the Over and Goes to decision prop at -200 (projected -223, listed -180), which correlates with Hubbard's survivability and potential to win this fight.

Moreover, depending on the book, I project a slight edge on either fighter to win by decision (projected +157 Hernandez and +231 Hubbard vs. +175 and +240 listed). I wouldn't mind a same-game parlay (SGP) with Hubbard and the Over 1.5 rounds (+170).

Since the line has moved drastically toward Hubbard, I'm taking a small stab at Hernandez pre-fight (to -135); and will look to back Hubbard live.

Bets

• Alexander Hernandez (-115, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Fight Goes to Decision (-180, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Austin Hubbard Live after Round 1

Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo

Crowdsourced Projections: Iasmin Lucindo (64.6%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo preview from my colleague Dann Stupp.

Lucindo, 22, already has 21 professional fights but is 15 years younger than Rodriguez (23 pro fights).

When there is more than a decade (11+ years) in age between UFC opponents, the younger fighter has won 72.2% of the time at an average odds of -149 (59.8%), more than 12% above expectation.

Rodriguez is the superior technical striker (+1.9 to +0.7 significant strike differential per minute), but Lucindo is the more imposing athlete and possesses all of the grappling upside in this matchup.

Rodriguez would win a pure kickboxing match, but Lucindo can take Rodriguez (65% takedown defense) down; once she is flat on her back, keeping her there is relatively easy. Rodriguez also tends to trip and fall from missed or wild strike attempts at various points in her fights, and Lucindo can turn those opportunities into control time too.

Lucindo opened near -120 and has steamed toward -200 for this fight as of writing, roughly a 12% move that may represent the adjustment for the pair's age gap. Her moneyline (projected -182, listed -180 at Caesars) and decision prop (projected +106, listed +110 at FanDuel) appear just outside the actionable range.

I'd wait to see if Lucindo's moneyline moves back toward -170 or consider her decision prop for a round robin. Otherwise, I'll pass on this fight.

Bets

• Iasmin Lucindo (-170, 0.25u) at DraftKings (small to -175)

Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley

Crowdsourced Projections: Joaquin Buckley (71.6%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley preview from my colleague Bryan Fonseca.

Thirty-year-old Joaquin Buckley is 11 years younger than the 41-year-old "Wonderboy" Thompson. And to reiterate the stat I just quoted above, when there is more than a decade (10+ years) in age between UFC opponents, the younger fighter has won 72.2% of the time at an average odds of -149 (59.8%), more than 12% above expectation.

Similar to the Lucindo-Rodriguez fight, the line has moved aggressively toward Buckley, the younger fighter with more power and all of the grappling upside.

Like Rodriguez, Thompson is a far superior but aging technical striker (+2.2 to +0.6 significant strike differential per minute).

Buckley carries more power – and can erase most of Wonderboy's volume by landing the more impactful punches. Still, he's also shown improved wrestling in recent outings (averaging 1.6 attempts per five minutes, 44% accuracy for his career) while landing eight of his past 11 attempts and controlling his most recent opponent for more than a full round of cage time.

As Thompsons has slowed in his late 30s and now early 40s, opponents have had an easier time taking him down (65% career takedown defense) and consolidating position for long stretches.

I projected Joaquin Buckley as a -253 favorite, showing value on his moneyline (bet to -230).

If you're looking for a longshot play for round robins, Buckey to win by submission (projected +1296, listed +2000) could juice up those tickets.

Bets

• Joaquin Buckley (-210, 0.25u) at BetMGM

Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland

Crowdsourced Projections: Kevin Holland (59.4%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Dolidze, who used to compete at light heavyweight and is returning from a fight at 205 pounds with Anthony Smith, may have a significant power and strength advantage over Holland, who recently returned to middleweight (185) after an eight-five run at welterweight (170).

Holland is a much quicker athlete, owns a five-inch reach advantage, and is a far superior technical striker (+1.4 to -0.6 differential per minute at a distance).

Dolidze will look to turn this into a grappling match, putting Holland (55% takedown defense) on his back or pushing him up against the cage for extended stretches.

A fresh Dolidze could be a handful for Holland, but I trust his durability and defensive grappling and expect the American to show better cardio and output down the stretch of this fight. Dolidze has slowed at sea level, and I don't expect him to handle altitude particularly well.

I considered betting Holland to win in Round 2 (+1000) or Round 3 (+1600), but I don't think his power carries the same at middleweight as it did at welterweight. A Holland finish is likely attritional and occurs in the back half of the fight, but I want some of his decision equity.

I placed a same-game parlaysame-game parlay with Holland and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+120 at DraftKings). Place that SGP at any plus money price, and consider Holland's moneyline live after Round 1.

Bets

• Kevin Holland (-140, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Same Game Parlay: Kevin Holland & Over 1.5 Rounds (+120, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Kevin Holland Live after Round 1

Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison

Crowdsourced Projections: Kayla Harrison (89.1%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

Kayla Harrison closed as a -450 (81.8% implied) consensus favorite in her UFC debut against Holly Holm and is currently -1000 (90.9% implied) or higher for her sophomore outing against Ketlen Vieira, who has been the betting favorite (-175, -165, -155) against ranked competition in each of her past three bouts, including over the current champion, Raquel Pennington.

Vieira has good first-layer takedown defense (92%; denied 26 of 28 attempts) but gets stuck on the bottom for long stretches once she is put flat on the mat. Harrison should eventually be able to find mount and finish her with strikes, specifically elbows, which weren't legal when Harrison fought in PFL.

Harrison closed at roughly +120 to win inside the distance against Holm, compared to -110 for that fight inside the distance.

Against Vieira, Harrison is +110 to win inside the distance, but you can get plus money (+105 at Caesars) on the fight to end inside the distance, and I would bet that prop to -135. I expect this fight to end inside by finish nearly 60% of the time (-154 implied).

When there is that small of a discrepancy in odds between one fighter to finish – or either to get a finish – bet the latter.

I project Harrison to win inside the distance 57.8% of the time (-137 implied odds), so there's a sufficient edge compared to her finish prop too.

Still, Vieira is the more technical striker and may have the cardio advantage if this fight extends; Harrison has cut significant weight to 135 (she used to compete at 155), and there's a potential that she gasses out badly – especially at altitude – and gets finished in the second half of this fight.

I'll likely save the Harrison ITD prop for round-robin consideration.

If Harrison can't get an early takedown, watch her body language; Vieria might be worth a live bet if she can deny early grappling entries.

Bets

• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+105, 0.5u at Caesars)

Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista

Crowdsourced Projections: Mario Bautista (51.6%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

Based upon the methods I use to project these fights, Aldo is a trendy underdog selection this week, getting picked to win this at a 74% clip on average across multiple data sources, compared to average betting odds of about 46%.

It was a similar scenario for Aldo's last fight against Jonathan Martinez. I still bet on Aldo, who closed as a +120 underdog in what may have been a more difficult stylistic matchup than Saturday's fight against Mario Bautista.

Aldo is the much older fighter (seven years Bautista's senior), and his skill set is bound to decline at some point as a 38-year-old bantamweight.

Bautista's athleticism and cardio – and the fight taking place at elevation – are his most significant advantages in this fight. He has a statistical edge on paper (+1.9 to -0.1 strike differential per minute), but aside from a handful of fights, Bautista has been the clear A side of the booking in most of his UFC bouts, while Aldo has fought the best in the world for two decades.

Bautista is well-rounded and able to mix in takedowns against lesser opponents, but Aldo is arguably the best anti-grappler in the sport's history (91% takedown defense; permitted nine on 97 attempts), and I don't expect Bautista to have much success taking him down (attempts 2.6 per five minutes at distance, 45% accuracy) or keeping him there.

As a result, Bautista will have to outstrike a better boxer with potentially superior durability. I'd expect Aldo to land the harder and cleaner punches in the opening round before Bautista potentially works his way back into the fight with quickness and output.

Aldo fought in Salt Lake City against Merab Dvalishvili, and even Bautista can't push that pace. Moreover, his ability to work the body could slow down his typically active opponent.

I'd expect Aldo to land the more damaging strikes, especially in the first round, and once again project value on the King of Rio as an underdog (projected +107; bet to +115).

Moreover, I also like Aldo to win by KO/TKO (projected +589, listed +700 at FnaDuel). Bautista's chin has gotten cracked in the past, and he has poor defensive tendencies (53% striking defense vs. 60% for Aldo).

Bets

• Jose Aldo (+125, 0.25u) at Caesars

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena

Crowdsourced Projections: Raquel Pennington (67.1%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Raquel Pennington vs. Juliuanna Pena preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

Former champion Julianna Pena will return to the Octagon for the first time since her loss to Amanda Nunes at UFC 277 in July 2022. Pennington won the belt against Mayra Bueno Silva at UFC 297 in January and shouldn't have to shake off any cage rust.

On combined efficiency, Pennington has a significant advantage (112 vs. 97) with higher striking accuracy (+5%) and defense (10%). However, most of that is tied to ground and clinch strikes; Pennington holds a much more negligible advantage in distance striking metrics (+0.5 to +0.4 differential per minute) over Pena.

Both fighters like to grapple offensively. Pennington prefers to fight in the clinch, while Pena is more reliable in shooting takedowns (averages 4.0 vs. 2.2 takedowns for Pennington per five minutes at distance).

However, Pennington has the more stout takedown defense (64% vs. 23%) – as Pena is often too content to accept the bottom position and fight off her back.

The distance striking is relatively close, and Pena is likely the better submission grappler, but I prefer Pennington's wrestling – and her ability to dictate where the fight takes place.

Moreover, I prefer Pennington in the first round—as Pena shakes off her layoff—and in the late rounds—since Pena didn't go to Utah early to acclimate to the elevation.

I projected Raquel Pennington as a -204 favorite and would bet her moneyline to -185. I also like her decision prop (projected -116, listed +110) as a straight bet or a round-robin leg.

Bets

• Raquel Pennington (-150, 0.5u at BetMGM)

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Crowdsourced Projections: Alex Pereira (78%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out my Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. preview for UFC 307's headline bout and light heavyweight title fight.

In short, I projected Alex Pereira as a -355 favorite (78% implied) and would wait to bet the underdog, Khalil Rountree Jr., at +400 (20% implied) or better.

I expect this fight to go the distance about 83% of the time (+481 implied), and I like the Over 1.5 Rounds (-134), Over 2.5 Rounds (+170), Over 3.5 Rounds (+310) and the goes to decision prop (listed +600) for this matchup.

Moreover, I show correlated value on either fighter to win by decision, projecting Pereira at +754 and Rountree at +1720 (+1050 and +1900 listed, respectively).

For now, ladder the Overs and wait for a better prefight price on the underdog.

Bets

• Over 1.5 Rounds (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings
• Over 2.5 Rounds (+170, 0.1u) at BallyBet
• Fight Goes to Decision (+600, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Sean Zerillo's UFC 307 Picks & Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

• Court McGee (+170, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Tecia Pennington (-175, 0.5u) at Caesars
• Alexander Hernandez (-115, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Iasmin Lucindo (-164, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to -175)
• Joaquin Buckley (-210, 0.25u) at BetMGM
• Kevin Holland (-140, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Jose Aldo (+125, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Raquel Pennington (-150, 0.5u at BetMGM)

Prop Bets and Totals

• Ovince Saint Preux wins in Round 2 (+1400, 0.05u) at FanDuel
• Ovince Saint Preux wins in Round 3 (+1800, 0.05u) at FanDuel
• Hernandez/Hubbard, Fight Goes to Decision (-180, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Harrison/Vieira, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+105, 0.5u at Caesars)
• Pereira/Rountree, Over 1.5 Rounds (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings
• Pereira/Rountree, Over 2.5 Rounds (+170, 0.1u) at BallyBet
• Pereira/Rountree, Fight Goes to Decision (+600, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Parlays

• Same Game Parlay: Kevin Holland and Over 1.5 Rounds (+120, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Live Bets

• Court McGee Live after Round 1
• Tecia Pennington Live after Round 1
• Ovince Saint Preux Live after Round 1
• Austin Hubbard Live after Round 1
• Kevin Holland Live after Round 1