For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 307 parlay bet or two to sweat.
This weekend, UFC 307 takes place at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Following prelims on EPSN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and then ESPNews (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 307 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
Only three of Saturday's 12 bouts have a total listed with an over/under of 1.5 rounds as opposed to 2.5 rounds or greater, and none of the fights offers even money or better odds if you go with the Under That is a long way of saying we may see a lot of fights go to decision (GTD).
Thus, I will be picking my three favorite spots in which I am most confident the bout will hit the scorecards, given the value of the relative price.
Let's dig into my UFC parlays for Saturday.
UFC 307 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 307 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC 307 Parlay
Leg 1: Alexander Hernandez vs. Austin Hubbard GTD (-185)
Alexander Hernandez undoubtedly brings a level of volatility to his fights, but this matchup with Austin Hubbard should play out in a manner that keeps both men out of danger. Hernandez is a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he has averaged just one takedown per 15 minutes during his UFC career. Hubbard's fights have gone the distance in seven of his last nine appearances, including his time on The Ultimate Fighter, with the only two fights ending inside the distance coming by way of submission loss. Hubbard has never been knocked out, and Hernandez doesn’t initiate the grappling often enough to create many submission opportunities.
Leg 2: Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland GTD (-185)
Kevin Holland has both the reach advantage and should lead the dance in this contest when it comes to volume. With that said, his chances of getting a finish against a fighter as well-rounded and durable as Roman Dolidze are slim to none. Dolidze has never been knocked out or submitted, and if there is one path he may take to claim victory on Saturday, it could be a grappling-heavy path. Holland has been submitted twice in his career, but Dolidze would have to find his opportunity early in the bout due to his tendency to slow down in fights. I am willing to bet Holland fights at distance in Round 1 and stays out of harm's way.
Leg 3 : Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira GTD (-125)
It’s no secret Kayla Harrison will likely be successful at getting this fight to the mat early and often if that is what it takes to secure the win as she continues to move up the rankings. Ketlen Vieira has faced other accomplished grapplers, and her skills on the mat have kept her out of danger enough that she has never been submitted. In fact, the only inside-the-distance loss Vieira has suffered came by way of KO in a striking exchange, which is something Harrison simply does not have in her bag at this point of her career. This may not be the most entertaining fight, which bodes well for the judges to award Harrison a likely unanimous decision.
Parlay Legs:
- Hernandez vs. Hubbard GTD (-185)
- Dolidze vs. Holland GTD (-185)
- Harrison vs. Vieira GTD (-125)
UFC 307 Parlay With All Decisions: +327 (DraftKings)
UFC 307 Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays are a great way to correlate fight results to increase your payout. They also offer a way to capitalize on bouts with great volatility. That is the opportunity we have with a preliminary card matchup of Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux.
Saint Preux found the fountain of youth in his most recent appearance in the UFC octagon, landing well over 100 significant strikes en route to pulling a massive upset as a sizeable underdog. It was surprising to see that level of activity from a fighter north of 40 years of age, but a repeat performance of landing just 15 significant strikes in total seems more than reasonable.
Spann has suffered three consecutive losses and will be looking to press his biggest advantage in this fight with his submission grappling. Seven of his last eight fights have ended Round 1, so this could be a quick night no matter who is the victor. Spann landing a takedown at some point in this fight should absolutely be a part of the game plan.
If Spann doesn’t land a takedown in Round 1 and the fight sees the second round, it is highly likely Saint Preux has already reached his 15 strikes needed. I will give a few extra minutes for one of these men to find a finish and for Spann to get the fight to the mat. I will avoid picking a winner.
This is quite the payout for a path in which Spann is able to dictate just one of the rounds. At 7/1, all three of these needed outcomes feel attainable as long as neither man lands a fight-ending strike in the very early going. This may be my favorite UFC SGP in 2024 to date.
Thus, my UFC307 same-game parlay is simply:
- 15+ significant strikes Ovince Saint-Preux
- Under 8.5 total minutes
- 1+ Ryann Spann total takedowns
