Let's look at some early UFC 307 predictions with our Luck Ratings to see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into the Saturday, October 5, event.
UFC 307 takes place at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and ESPNews (8 p.m. ET), the pay-per-view main card kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV (cost: $79.99).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 307 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 307 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Alex Pereira (-535) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (+400)
In some UFC divisions, it's incredibly hard to earn a title shot. Belal Muhammad had to win nine straight fights – with a no-contest against the current champ – before his shot. Merab Dvalishvili won 10 before his shot came.
In other divisions such as light heavyweight, which features an extremely active champion, the path is much easier. That explains how Khalil Rountree Jr. and his five-fight winning streak that doesn't include a top-10 fighter found his way into the title picture.
That's reflected in the betting lines, which have Alex Pereira as a rightful heavy favorite. Rountree has a puncher's chance, but if you like that side, his knockout prop bet is the way to go.
On the Pereira side, I'm interested in his -5.5 spread line when those open up, depending on the price offered.
For now, I'm staying away. This line is roughly where it should be.
Verdict: Fairly valued
Raquel Pennington (-162) vs. Julianna Pena (+136)
We also get undeserved title shots in divisions in which a champion has cleared out all of the reasonable contenders. That was long the case at women's bantamweight, where Amanda Nunes reigned over the division in dominant fashion.
Julianna Pena shook that up in 2021, beating Nunes for the belt while coming into UFC 307 on Saturday at 2-2 in her past four fights. She lost the immediate rematch to Nunes, who then retired, which gave Raquel "Rocky" Pennington a shot at the vacant title back in January.
Which is how we find ourselves here, with Pena fighting in her third straight title fight. Overall, Pena is 3-3 since 2017, and those six fights took place over more than seven years, so she hasn't been staying active, either.
This is another spot where I'm interested in the point spread on the favorite since it's easier to cover that line in five-round fights. With this line getting tighter since open, we can probably afford to wait anyway.
With that said, I'd take Pennington's -160 line at Caesars Sportsbook if that were my only option in the fight, so I'd consider her undervalued.
Verdict: Raquel Pennington undervalued
Joaquin Buckley (-198) vs. Stephen Thompson (+160)
Stephen Thompson is 41 with just one win dating back to 2020. That victory came against fellow UFC 307 competitor Kevin Holland, who probably should've defeated Thompson but insisted on letting "Wonderboy" back up after taking him down.
Joaquin Buckley is more than 11 years younger and is 4-0 since dropping down to welterweight in 2023.
This one seems fairly obvious, and Buckley's line has continued to move after he opened as a -150 or so favorite depending on the book. Jump on it now before it gets even longer.
I'm also interested in his inside-the-distance or -3.5 spread line later in the week, so I'll be betting to win a half unit here and adding on to it once the prop markets open up.
Verdict: Joaquin Buckley undervalued
Iasmin Lucindo (-175) vs. Marina Rodriguez (+145)
This is another fight that's seen significant early line movement with Iasmin Lucindo opening as around a -120 favorite.
She's a tough stylistic matchup for Marina Rodriguez. Lucindo averages more than two takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, and she's won every fight in which she's scored a takedown. Rodriguez has been taken down in an absurd 10 straight fights.
I typically don't love laying juice on fights very likely to go the distance, but Lucindo's grappling edge should make the winner of the rounds here fairly clear. Plus, she's nearly 15 years younger than Rodriguez, whose only win in her last four fights was against a completely washed Michelle Waterson-Gomez.
Grab Lucindo now before this line moves even more. The best price is -170 at FanDuel.
Verdict: Iasmin Lucindo undervalued
Tecia Pennington (-180) vs. Carla Esparza (+150)
The former Tecia Torres – whose alliterative "Tiny Tornado" nickname was ruined by her marriage to UFC 307 co-headliner Racquel Pennington – opened as an underdog on BetRivers and a -120 favorite at Caesars before heavy line movement pushed her to a moderate favorite early in the week.
I'm expecting even more. Pennington takes on Carla Esparza, who's already declared this her retirement fight and is returning from having a baby in 2023.
Pennington returned from her own pregnancy in her last fight, a split-decision loss to Tabatha Ricci that probably should've gone the other way. That was the second straight split-decision loss for Pennington, who had won three straight fights before that.
Everything is pointing in the same direction here: We always want to bet against retiring fighters – and on fighters who've been unlucky on the scorecards. Esparza has also won four straight split or majority decisions, so her luck should run out. Throw in the return from pregnancy for Esparza, and it's a lot to overcome.
The best line on Pennington is -160 at Caesars, but I'd bet any of the widely available numbers that are available as of this writing on Monday.
Verdict: Tecia Pennington undervalued
