Check out our UFC 307 predictions for the Saturday, August 5, event, which features an Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. main event.
Our MMA experts have studied this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets for the card. And we've found plenty of value on this weekend's pay-per-view fight card.
UFC 307 takes place Saturday at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, and the main card is available on ESPN+ PPV (10 p.m. ET) following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and ESPNews (8 p.m. ET).
So where should you look to place your UFC 307 bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and five picks on Saturday’s high-elevation card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC 307 Predictions
Billy Ward: Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
The former Tecia Torres – whose alliterative “Tine Tornado” nickname was spoiled by her marriage to UFC 307 co-main-event fighter Raquel Pennington – is back in action for the second time after a two-year layoff due to her pregnancy.
Pennington looked solid in her return fight, losing a second straight split decision to a grappling-based opponent, though the decision probably should’ve gone her way.
This time she’s taking on another grappler in former champion Carla Esparza. Esparza is a better wrestler than Pennington’s recent opponents – Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci – but far less of a threat on the ground.
Esparza’s lack of damage and submission threat leaves plenty of room for Torres to win rounds even if she gets taken down.
Of course, I’ve buried the lede a bit here. Esparza is returning from her own pregnancy, and she's announced that she’s retiring after this fight. Those are two signals that are typically profitable to bet against individually. Combined, it’s certainly not encouraging for Esparza.
It’s hard to imagine her attacking training camp with the same urgency knowing that she’s retiring either way. That’s particularly concerning following a long layoff from training and competing.
If this one continues to move, I’d be comfortable betting Torres all the way down to -200. As of this writing, the best current line is -175 at Caesars.
Ward's Pick: Tecia Pennington (-175 at Caesars)
Tony Sartori: Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
With the Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez prelim, the steam is heavily on Hubbard, who opened as the underdog at +164 and has since been bet down to his current +144 price tag.
I agree with the steam, and I still don't quite understand how this line is as wide as it is. Yes, Hubbard has certainly not looked like anything special in the UFC octagon, but this seems like the worst possible spot for Hernandez.
Hernandez's biggest flaw as a fighter is his limited cardio. So now he takes a fight on short notice, at elevation in Utah, against a wrestler in a fight that oddsmakers are expecting to go the distance (-174).
I don't understand how Hernandez is so heavily favored under those circumstances. Again, Hubbard isn't very good, so I get why he would be the underdog in a vacuum, but Hernandez also isn't good either on top of his suspect cardio.
Hernandez is just 4-7 over his past 11 fights in the UFC, with all four of those wins coming in matchups where he was more than a two-dollar favorite. Hubbard's corner is always on him to wrestle, and if he wrestles in this fight, then he should take advantage of Hernandez's cardio and take rounds two and three.
Sartori's Pick: Austin Hubbard (+135 at Caesars)
Sean Zerillo: Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison
Senior staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET
Kayla Harrison closed as a -450 (81.8% implied) consensus favorite in her UFC debut against Holly Holm and is currently -1000 (90.9% implied) or higher for her sophomore outing against Ketlen Vieira, who has been the betting favorite (-175, -165, -155) against ranked competition in each of her past three bouts, including over the current champion, Raquel Pennington.
Vieira has good first-layer takedown defense (92%; denied 26 of 28 attempts) but gets stuck on the bottom for long stretches once she is put flat on the mat. Harrison should eventually be able to find mount and finish her with strikes, specifically elbows, which weren't legal when Harrison fought in PFL.
Harrison closed at roughly +120 to win inside the distance against Holm, compared to -110 for that fight inside the distance.
Against Vieira, Harrison is +110 to win inside the distance, but you can get plus money (+105 at Caesars) on the fight to end inside the distance, and I would bet that prop to -135. I expect this fight to end inside by finish nearly 60% of the time (-154 implied).
When there is that small of a discrepancy in odds between one fighter to finish – or either to get a finish – bet the latter.
I project Harrison to win inside the distance 57.8% of the time (-137 implied odds), so there's a sufficient edge compared to her finish prop too.
Still, Vieira is the more technical striker and may have the cardio advantage if this fight extends; Harrison has cut significant weight to 135 (she used to compete at 155), and there's a potential that she gasses out badly – especially at altitude – and gets finished in the second half of this fight.
Additionally, I'll likely save the Harrison ITD prop for round-robin consideration. If Harrison can't get an early takedown, watch her body language; Vieria might be worth a live bet if she can deny early grappling entries.
Zerillo's Pick: Vieira vs. Harrison ends snside the distance (+105 at Caesars)
Dann Stupp: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET
It appears most of my colleagues are joining me in liking the Pennington family on Saturday's UFC 307 fight card.
In addition to a bet on preliminary card fighter Tecia Pennington (shoutout to my colleague Billy above), I'm bullish on "Tiny Tornado's" significant other: UFC 307 co-headliner and reigning women's bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington.
On the surface and with a quick size-up, I thought Pennington vs. Julianna Pena seemed like a fairly competitive title fight at UFC 307. However, when factoring in some of the details – namely, Pennington's output and her being better prepared for the elevation of Salt Lake City – I quickly saw value on the champ.
Pennington should do a good job of keeping this fight standing and winning rounds. And I think whatever threats that Pena can offer will quickly fade after a round or two.
Not only do a like Raquel Pennington on the moneyline, I like her wife too. So in addition to a straight play on the champ, I'm sticking her in a parlay and riding with an all-Pennington betting ticket on Saturday night.
Stupp's Picks: Raquel Pennington (-150 at BetMGM) | Parlay: Raquel Pennington & Tecia Pennington (+147 at BetMGM)
