Check out our UFC picks with our favorite long-shot UFC 307 props for Saturday, October 5.
The UFC returns to pay-per-view tonight, and the MMA Prop Squad is back with a handful of juicy prop bets for the card.
UFC 307 takes place at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, and the main card is available on ESPN+ PPV (10 p.m. ET) following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and ESPNews (8 p.m. ET).
With 12 fights on a rather deep lineup, UFC 307 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found a handful they like for tonight's high-elevation SLC card.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC 307 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 307 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC 307 Picks & Props
Dann Stupp: A Sad Retirement for Esparza vs. Pennington
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
I'm usually a pretty sentimental guy – but not when it comes to betting against retiring fighters.
I've followed and covered MMA for two decades now, and I can count the number of happy, feel-good retirements I've experienced on one hand.
This is such an unforgiving sport, and if you've already mentally got one foot out of the cage, expect the rest of your body to get battered when you physically step in there for the last time. I don't know if it's knowing that relief (mental, physical, emotional and likely even financial) is finally on the horizon for the retiring fighter. I don't know if it's their opponents knowing they've got wounded prey in their sights. Whatever it is, MMA retirement fights rarely end happily for the departing combatant.
That's the primary reason I'm taking Tecia Pennington (-180) over former strawweight champion Carla Esparza (+150) in their early UFC 307 prelim, which will be "Cookie Monster's" last fight.
Simply, there are just too many factors working against Esparza here. The ex-champ has had a low-key but trailblazing career. However, in addition to this being her retirement fighter, it also marks Esparza's return from a two-year layoff, her first fight since childbirth, and a bad stylistic matchup.
Whether it's an attritional KO or an opportunistic submission during a takedown defense, Pennington should have some opportunities for a stoppage against an opponent who deserves our respect (but not necessarily our betting dollars at this junction of her career).
The Pick: Tecia Pennington by finish (+700 at BetRivers)
John LanFranca: KO Bet for Spann vs. Saint Preux
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
Seven of the past eight Ryan Spann fights have ended in Round 1, and it would be of no surprise if that happens again on Saturday night.
Spann (-250) will meet Saint Preux (+205), who looked spry in his last time in the octagon, defeating Kennedy Nzechukwu as a sizeable underdog with a level of activity that was truly shocking to witness for a 40+ year old fighter.
OSP fought behind his jab to set up other strikes and eventually dropped his opponent with an uppercut. I am not certain how Saint Preux found the fountain of youth, but if he looks anywhere near that level once again on Saturday, this prop is badly mispriced.
Spann has a glaring weakness when it comes to his durability, and while everyone might expect him to take the path of least resistance against an aging fighter, he can hardly be trusted. It is also worth noting that Saint Preux has not been taken down in his past six bouts.
If this fight plays out on the feet, somebody is very likely to take serious damage in short order. I am willing to take a swing that a fighter in Spann, who has been knocked out four times in his UFC career, is the one to fall over first.
The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux by KO/TKO/DQ (+700 at DraftKings)
Bryan Fonseca: Wonderboy KO in Thompson vs. Buckley
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
For more on this fight, check out my Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley betting preview.
I'm picking Joaquin Buckley to win on points at +150. That's my safe bet.
But the fun long shot is to take "Wonderboy" Thompson (+185) to fraud check Buckley (-225) with a surprise stoppage finish.
The reason I think this has upside is that Wonderboy will look to tire out Buckley with his variety of kicks and volume, which is concerning if you're backing the favorite. Thompson has already questioned Buckley's gas tank publicly, even going as far as saying he wishes this were five rounds, and admittedly – if it were a Fight Night main event – it would make this clash more compelling.
Buckley has been stopped four times in his career, most recently by Chris Curtis just two years ago, and he was also head-kick KO'd by Alessio Di Chirico in early 2021. Kevin Holland stopped Buckley just five months prior, and Jackie Gosh ended his undefeated streak with punches in November 2016 when Buckley was in Bellator.
Thompson is in his early 40s, has lost three of his last four fights, and has only four wins across his last 11 bouts going back eight years. However, he got a stoppage over Holland two years ago, and he's beaten other guys who were rolling ahead of matching up with him, including Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque in 2019 and 2020.
A chance with this amount of plus money that he walks the chinny Buckley into a patterned head kick is worth it.
The Pick: Stephen Thompson by KO/TKO/DQ (+700 at DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Don't Sleep During Dolidze vs. Holland
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
Money has come in somewhat on Roman Dolidze (+124) this week with his moneyline moving from +145 at open to as low as +120 for his matchup against Kevin Holland (-148) at UFC 307.
That love doesn’t seem to have extended to the prop market, where his inside-the-distance odds remain at a tempting +600.
That feels like too wide of a gap, considering Dolidze has finished four of his six UFC wins at middleweight and he's fighting an opponent known for a risk-taking style that leads to fights ending early.
Dolidze is a former ADCC competitor with elite grappling skills, and he also hits hard. Holland was rocked in his last fight against Michal Oleksiejczuk, but he relied on his own grappling to bail him out when his Polish opponent followed him to the mat.
He won’t have that get-out-of-jail free card against Dolidze, who would be more than happy to use an armbar attempt from Holland as a free guard pass before reigning down ground and pound.
This line should be a good bit closer to Dolidze’s moneyline – and I think his moneyline should be right around +100 anyway.
The Pick: Roman Dolidze by finish (+600 at DraftKings)
Clint MacLean: King of Rio KO in Aldo vs. Bautista
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
The King of Rio returns to UFC 307, and he finds himself in yet another changing-of-the-guard style fight.
If he can get by all-time great Jose Aldo (+120), Mario Bautista (-142) will take a big step toward the contenders' circle. However, he will have to get by a legend in order to do that.
Bautista is a relentless grappler and an amazing kicker, but the issue here is that Aldo has fought fighters with that resume his entire career – and made them look foolish. Aldo is nearing 40 and has already retired once from the sport of MMA, so there is fear that Father Time has caught him.
However, if Aldo is not that far gone, he has advantages almost everywhere in this fight. I don't believe Bautista will have success with the takedowns, and not only have we seen him hurt on the feet, but we have seen him knocked out in the past.
I may be a sucker, but if you are offering me Jose Aldo by KO at a number like this, I'm taking it.
The Pick: Jose Aldo by KO/TKO/DQ (+700 at BetRivers)
Tony Sartori: Split Scorecards for Pennington vs. Pena
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC 307 co-main card features a bantamweight title bout between reigning champion Raquel Pennington (-162) and No. 1 ranked contender Julianna Pena (+136). Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to go the distance (-245), and for good reason.
Eight of Pennington's past nine fights have gone to decision while four of Pena's past eight bouts have also needed the judges' input.
Pennington is a precision striker who throws in volume at the expense of devastating power; Pena can mix it up a little bit more. With that said, the only person to ever knock out Pennington is Amanda Nunes while the former also hasn't tapped in more than a decade.
Pena's submission game is likely the way this fight could end inside the distance, but, again, we haven't seen Rocky tap since the Obama Administration.
If this fight is going to decision, where in the market can we find value? I believe it is by taking the -170 favorite and receiving a 5/1 return on a split or majority decision.
Scorecards could be all over the place in this one, which is what sometimes occurs in five-round fights with contrasting styles. Pena will likely shoot for takedowns to take away Pennington's advantage on the feet.
With that said, there is always the dichotomy between judges who reward position and domination versus those who reward the fighter who landed the bigger/more damaging shots. At the end of the day, these judges are – now more than ever – instructed to reward damage over all else, which is why I think the scorecard will ultimately tip in the current champion's favor.
However, Pena could absolutely steal some rounds with that takedown game plan in a fight where there will be some toss-up rounds, which is why I think it is worth taking this 5/1 flier on Pennington's damage to ultimately be the difference maker in an otherwise close fight.
The Pick: Raquel Pennington by split or majority decision (+500 at DraftKings)
Dan Tom: Violent Upset in Pereira vs. Rountree
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:59 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target UFC 307's main event between light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira (-455) and challenger Khalil Rountree (+350).
Although I'm officially picking Pereira to win, it's hard to play Pereira at his current odds.
Outside of sprinkling on the sitting champion to win in Round 2, it's not hard to argue that the betting value is on the challenger in this spot.
Despite Pereira officially standing at 1-0 opposite UFC-level lefties in his career, southpaw body kicks and counters have been the common culprit in both kickboxing and MMA whenever fighters operate out of that stance.
Rountree also has a knack for countering kicks, which could spell trouble for Pereira considering that "The Warhorse" knocked out Gokhan Saki while the kickboxing legend was throwing a leg kick.
Add in the fact that – outside of an elbow knockout to Johnny Walker – wrestling has been a common thread in Rountree defeats, and I believe that the American is incredibly live in this sort of stylistic affair.
And even if you're already on Pereira, then sprinkling on Rountree to win by KO (or putting it in a round robin like myself) could serve as a potential hedge for your exposure.
The Pick: Khalil Rountree by TKO/KO/DQ (+500 at DraftKings)
