Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo Odds
Check out the Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo odds for UFC 308 on Saturday, October 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Farid Basharat is looking to become next in an increasingly long line of Middle Eastern-born UFC stars.
Basharat (12-0, 6 SUB, 1 KO) won't get there by just beating seemingly overmatched competition, but the undefeated bantamweight has veteran Victor Lugo (25-4, 9 SUB, 8 KOs) in his way.
Basharat will be a lock for many to come out victorious and is this weekend's biggest moneyline favorite at UFC 308. Most think he should get it done, but how is the big question many have.
Here's my Basharat vs. Hugo pick and prediction.
Bryan Fonseca's Tale of the Tape
| Basharat | Hugo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-0 | 25-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:19 | 11:08 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/2/1997 | 11/22/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.47 | 3.46 |
| SS Accuracy | 58% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.44 | 2.25 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.96 | 0.67 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 50% |
| TD Def | 83% | 87% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 1.4 |
Basharat is 12-0 in MMA and has cruised to 3-0 in the UFC since showcasing himself on Dana White's Contender Series two years ago.
Basharat was last in action in January, outpointing Taylor Lapilus with relative ease and leaving the impression that he could be elite in this weight class.
The Afgan-born English fighter showed a diversity in skill, breaking down Lapilus with a variety of kicks targeting the head, legs and body, keeping his southpaw opponent at a distance.
He used this platform to eventually ground Lapilus and completely control him in the latter portion of the bout as well.
As a result, he's the biggest betting favorite of his career to this point.
At 5-foot-8 with a 71-inch reach, he also has a great frame for the 135-pound class.
Hugo is a veteran of MMA who enters this bout as a huge underdog despite being undefeated in MMA for the last 10 years. His most recent loss since March 2014 is due to a rib injury. Hugo hadn't competed in the UFC until after a Contender Series win last year, with his only appearance coming in a unanimous decision win over Pedro Falcao at a UFC Apex card in April.
Both Basharat and Hugo can grapple at a high level and have a combined 15 submission wins across the 37 victories between them. Hugo is 5-foot-7 with a 71-inch reach, essentially mirroring Basharat's frame in that regard.
Basharat may again look to establish his offense early before attempting to control the ground game, and though Hugo's takedown defense will be pushed, his experience may work in his favor more than people expect. Ultimately, the test is to see where Basharat is in his development as we all attempt to figure out whether or not the undefeated bantamweight is a future star in this division.
Basharat vs. Hugo Pick
I don't like how overpriced Basharat feels, but it's hard to disagree with the thought of him winning the fight. He should take care of business. Should doesn't always win in combat sports, but he is the biggest favorite on the card for a reason, and he's been as high as -800 on the moneyline after opening as a less than 3-to-1 favorite.
Ultimately, Basharat should take this by decision or submission, so I'm leaning toward that combo bet (listed under the "Double Chance" menu at FanDuel) at -400 as a parlay piece. And given that some books will give out parlay boosts or even risk free plays depending on where you look, this would still be useful given that the threshold is often -400ish per leg.
And really, Basharat is juiced to win by decision, which is admittedly the most likely outcome, but I can't completely disregard the submission if he's competing on the ground.
Enjoy the fight and don't go broke!
Bryan's Pick: Farid Basharat by Submission or on Points (-400 at FanDuel)
