Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos Odds
Check out the Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjo odds for UFC 308 on Saturday, October 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC 308 preliminary card features a solid matchup at 170 pounds between Geoff Neal and Rafael dos Anjos.
Despite both Neal and dos Anjos riding two-fight losing skids into this Saturday's prelim bout, each competitor still holds standings in the UFC's top 15 for the welterweight weight class.
Dos Anjos, who tends to bounce back and forth between lightweight and welterweight, is moving back up after coming up short to lightweight Mateusz Gamrot earlier this year.
Neal, on the other hand, is a natural welterweight who is searching for the consistency and success that many projected for him since he came off the first season of Dana White's Contender Series.
Here's my Neal vs. dos Anjo pick and prediction.
Dan Tom's Tale of the Tape
| Neal | dos Anjos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-6 | 32-16 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:58 | 14:55 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 70" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/28/1990 | 10/26/1984 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.97 | 3.48 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.47 | 3.21 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.46 | 1.95 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 35% |
| TD Def | 87% | 55% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.6 |
Serving as the lone southpaw vs. southpaw affair at UFC 308, this fight offers an interesting stylistic dynamic from a striking perspective.
With the majority of training rooms being occupied by right-handed fighters, southpaws tend to predicate their games against orthodox stance opposition. So, whenever a southpaw does encounter another southpaw in sparring or otherwise, they, too, can be just as uncomfortable as an orthodox fighter when having to strike with a fellow lefty.
Some fighters transition to same-stance matchups seamlessly while others appear to acquire some extra awkwardness to their offense and defense alike.
As far as these fighters go, their sample sizes couldn't be further apart.
Dos Anjos, who has much more experience with this stance pairing, officially stands 6-4 opposite UFC-level southpaws. The losses on the slate for "RDA" come by way of superior wrestlers while the wins were products of the Brazilian's pace and well-rounded skills.
Whereas Neal, oddly enough, has never encountered a dedicated UFC-level southpaw in his career (though he did struggle with the straight punches and kicks of a stance-switching Stephen Thompson).
Thankfully for Neal, the American holds a solid speed and power edge over most of his contemporaries.
Although Neal still carries his clinching sensibilities from the regional scene, "Handz of Steel" primarily makes his money striking at range.
Leaning heavily into strikes off his power side, Neal – despite making some concerted efforts to be more diverse with his targets and shot selection – is a headhunter of the highest order.
That said, Neal will need to respect the multi-layered attacks of dos Anjos.
Not only does dos Anjos consistently work the body and legs of his opposition with vigor, but the former UFC lightweight champ is also a menace with elbows and knees inside of the clinch. And if dos Anjos can score a takedown, the experienced Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has a rock-solid top game that he uses to punish opponents with impunity.
Neal has good takedown defense to go with his size and strength edge, but the American will need to be on his best behavior given that dos Anjos is 15-5 when able to score a minimum of just 1 takedown.
Neal vs. dos Anjos Pick
The oddsmakers and the public heavily favor the American fighter, listing Neal -300 and dos Anjos +240 as of this writing.
Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, I still find myself being drawn to the underdog side in this fight.
Even though Neal is the younger fighter with fewer miles, the Fortis MMA product has not looked the same since almost dying of sepsis back in 2019. From inconsistent performances to troubles on the scale, Neal has struggled to string wins together since 2020.
Dos Anjos is clearly past his prime, but the Brazilian warhorse is still a fairly reliable output machine who has clearly taken care of his body over the years.
It's also worth noting that dos Anjos has only shown durability issues when operating down at lightweight. At welterweight, dos Anjos has displayed a much better ability to take hard shots from even bigger hitters.
Takedowns are harder to come by for dos Anjos in this division, but Neal's propensity to crowd his work into closed quarters could give the American more than he bargains for as far as tying up with a superior clinch striker goes.
Although it feels like a risky pick, I think that dos Anjos will be much more competitive than what the current odds indicate.
Not only does Neal lack experience against southpaws and pressure grapplers, but I believe that dos Anjos' leg kicks – which really come to life in this stance pairing – will wreak havoc on his counterpart considering Neal's history against competent kickers.
Couple all that with the fact that this will be Neal's first fight outside of North America, and I think we're firmly in "dog or pass" territory from a moneyline perspective.
I don't think that this is a fight that I'll be heavily exposing myself to, but I will be sprinkling on the "dos Anjos to win by decision" method-of-victory prop given that the sportsbook is giving you roughly 5-1 underdog odds for the Brazilian's primary win condition.
Dan's Pick: Rafael dos Anjos wins by decision (+490 at FanDuel)
