Ibo Aslan vs. Raffael Cerqueira Odds
Check out the Ibo Aslan vs. Raffael Cerqueira odds for UFC 308 on Saturday, October 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Ibo Aslan is making his second UFC appearance off Dana White’s Contender Series when he meets Raffael Cerqueira, a relatively unknown UFC newcomer from Brazil.
Their bout kicks off this weekend's early UFC 308 fight card, and I'm targeting the fight's total.
Here's my Aslan vs. Cerqueira pick and prediction.
Clint MacLean's Tale of the Tape
| Aslan | Cerqueira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-1 | 11-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:57 | n/a |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 4/23/1996 | 3/15/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.83 | 0.0 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.53 | 0.00 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 0% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Aslan avenged his only professional loss by knocking out Anton Turkalj in his UFC debut, and frankly, he did not look all that impressive.
Alsan is a powerful striker who just relies on his physicality to run through his opponents. Turkalj was able to withstand the striking power the first time they fought in 2020, and he put a pace on Aslan that ended up being his doom.
Aslan did, in fact, make the needed adjustments to win the rematch earlier this year. But it showed his potential limitations as Turkalj was having far more success striking than he should have, and it appeared that Aslan was fading again.
Aslan's next opponent at UFC 308, Cerqueira, makes his UFC debut, and outside of being a teammate of current UFC fighter Jailton Almeida, we don't know much about him.
You'd think being a teammate of Almeida, this man would be a strong grappler. However, in all the fights I have been able to watch, Cerqueira much prefers to strike. He's built a highlight reel and is capable of some very flashy striking techniques, but he seems like a home run hitter rather than a minute winner.
This fight sets up very interestingly because both men seem more than capable of finishing, but at this point, I would say they fall in the “can-crusher” category. I am not sure which one of them belongs in the UFC; I'm not sure if either of them belongs in the UFC.
This fight should be violent, and whoever makes the first mistake might hit the canvas. I would say that I trust the durability of Aslan to hold out, but he hasn't really been tested against another big hitter at the UFC level.
Aslan vs. Cerqueira Pick
This fight is lined as pick'em, and my gut says Aslan will find the big shot eventually. However, I am going to ride the total instead.
Both men are theoretically getting a step up in competition here, and whenever that happens, the fights tend to be more competitive and go a bit longer.
In 2024, the rate of UFC decisions has gone drastically up. Some of that is the fighters and their game plans, but some of that is being blamed on the UFCs new gloves.
Whatever it is, we rarely get reasonable 1.5 totals these days (let alone at plus money), and I think we should try to take advantage of it.
Clint's Pick: Aslan vs. Cerqueira Over 1.5 rounds (+105 at bet365)
