Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway Odds
| 4 p.m. ET | |
Check out the Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway odds for UFC 308 on Saturday, October 26, with my betting preview and breakdown for the early fight card in the United Arab Emirates.
On Saturday, the UFC will return to Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi for a 13-fight card featuring a featherweight title bout between undefeated champion Ilia Topuria and former titleholder Max "Blessed" Holloway.
Topuria seeks his first title defense after securing featherweight gold at UFC 298 with a second-round knockout of Holloway's rival, Alexander Volkanovski.
"El Matador" has finished 13 of his 15 career fights and has seen the championship rounds on only one occasion (a five-round win over Josh Emmett in June 2023).
Holloway enters on a three-fight winning streak following a dramatic knockout victory over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300. He's seen a fourth round in 10 of his past 11 fights.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC main event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on Holloway and Topuria, who should make their cage walks at approximately 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ PPV.
Here's my Topuria vs. Holloway pick and prediction.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| Topuria | Holloway | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-0 | 26-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:02 | 16:15 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/21/1997 | 12/4/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.40 | 7.17 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.35 | 4.72 |
| SS Defense | 65% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.92 | 0.25 |
| TD Acc | 56% | 53% |
| TD Def | 92% | 84% |
| Submission Avg | 1.3 | 0.3 |
Five-round experience and cardio could be the most significant advantage for Max Holloway in this matchup.
As I mentioned, Holloway has seen a fourth round in 10 of his past 11 fights while Topuria has seen the championship rounds only once in his career – in a moderate-paced, one-sided contest.
If Holloway is permitted to strike for 25 minutes, he can outpace any opponent:
Max Holloway fight week is as good a time as any to resurrect this absurd figure.
In advance of #UFC308, @BlessedMMA is #1 all-time in both significant strikes landed and significant strike differential in the #UFC.
No other current or prior fighter comes close. pic.twitter.com/Z5hD7jF9z8
— Nate Latshaw (@NateLatshaw) October 22, 2024
Holloway has attempted 15.2 and landed 7.3 significant strike attempts per minute at a distance, and he outpaces his opponents by +2.2 strikes landed per minute. Those marks are 10.2, 3.7, and +0.1 for Topuria.
While Holloway has touted himself as the "best boxer in the UFC," Topuria might have the better hands in this matchup. He carries more power but throws tighter combinations, and he may have the speed advantage.
Still, Topuria doesn't kick the legs nearly as much as Volkanovski, for example, which could allow Holloway to press forward and force Topuria to counter-strike or grapple to break Max's pressure.
I'd expect the striking to be highly competitive and entertaining throughout a 25-minute fight. Holloway should land more volume, but Topuria's punches should cause more damage.
Topuria has more finishing upside, too – specifically after Holloway got knocked down for the first time before defeating Gaethje.
Moreover, Topuria has all of the offensive grappling upside in this matchup.
Holloway does have excellent takedown defense (84% career, denied 127 of 151 attempts) and is highly adept at scrambling back to his feet if he does end up on his back. Still, Topuria has an underrated series of chokes in his arsenal and showed that he had enough left in his gas tank to wrestle successfully against Emmett in the fifth round.
While Topuria seems eager to prove that he can outbox Holloway, grappling is his path of least resistance in this matchup; the question is whether he can put his ego aside to improve his chances of retaining his belt.
If Topuria does grapple early, however, and is not successful in landing takedowns – consider a live bet on Holloway. If Topuria can't land takedowns in this matchup, the overall dynamic pushes closer to a coin flip, and he may tire out down the stretch too.
However, suppose Topuria decides to strike things out early, and the line moves toward Holloway. In that case, I'd consider a live bet on Topuria – before he potentially pursues his most significant advantage in this matchup.
Topuria vs. Holloway Pick
I projected Ilia Topuria as a -260 favorite (72.3% implied), and I'd bet the champion to -237 (70.3% implied) for Saturday's main event.
I expect this fight to reach a decision 49% of the time (+103 implied) and would either bet the Over 3.5 Rounds (-118) or Over 4.5 Rounds (+110), compared to a featherweight divisional average of 54%.
Holloway and Topuria are exceptionally durable, but given Holloway's desire to floor the gas pedal late in the fifth round, I'd take the Overs rather than betting the distance prop at juicier odds.
I also show an edge on Topuria to win by decision (projected +208, listed +260), which I'd bet at +225 or higher.
I expected to bet on Topuria by finish at a better number than we took against Volkanovski (+220); however, Topuria's inside-the-distance odds have halved to +110 relative to his last fight; I'll let the odds adjustment dictate my wagering strategy.
Sean's Picks: Over 3.5 Rounds (-118, 0.5u at FanDuel) | Ilia Topuria wins by decision (+260, 0.1u at FanDuel)
