Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige Odds
Check out the Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige odds for UFC 308 on Saturday, October 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.
In one of this weekend's featured main-card attractions, Dan Ige is back in his usual role as unofficial gatekeeper for the 145-pound division. This time, it's against the unbeaten but often unforgotten Lerone Murphy.
While it may be tempting to go contrarian in search of value for this featherweight fight, I think a straightforward approach could make the most sense (and cents).
Here's my preview with my Murphy vs. Ige pick and prediction.
Dan Tom's Tale of the Tape
| Murphy | Ige | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-0-1 | 18-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:30 | 12:39 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/22/1991 | 8/6/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.01 | 3.70 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.60 | 3.51 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.59 | 0.99 |
| TD Acc | 52% | 26% |
| TD Def | 46% | 59% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Dan Ige flew under the radar for much of his early UFC career – so much so that he went 6-1 under the UFC banner before I couldn't consistently remember how to pronounce his name.
Ige quietly shored up his game and climbed the ranks, but he could never break through as a top contender. He's a well-rounded and completely serviceable top-15 UFC featherweight (currently ranked the No. 14 contender). Despite all that, he's failed to win the big one that'd push him to the next level.
Still, Ige's been known to turn away or a hopeful or two of his own.
Is that Lerone Murphy, a fellow 34-year-old whose spotless record is a bit marred by some close decisions and a lot of past inactivity during his sporadic career?
Sure, Ige is a popular underdog pick this week, but big money has pushed Murphy from -170 at opener to a three-dollar favorite. And I get it. Murphy's most recent performance undoubtedly answered a lot of questions for his former critics. It was a complete, well-rounded, career-vaulting Performance of the Night win over showman Edson Barboza back in May.
Murphy looked sensational in the dominant five-round headliner. Best of all, after years of inconsistent bookings, Murphy now appears to be on a regular schedule of UFC fights.
With his ever-improving wrestling and his top-notch standup, Murphy's healthy body is hopefully the final piece of the puzzle before Father Time becomes a serious concern for the vet.
Murphy vs. Ige Pick
I think Murphy should lead the standup, avoid the takedowns, and even initiate a takedown of his own if he needs to tighten up a round in his favor.
I also think Ige has the durability – and Murphy doesn't necessarily have the KO power – to survive the full 15-minute affair.
While I initially leaned toward a bet of Murphy via decision (at a market-best -127 via BetRivers), I was hoping we'd be offered something closer to even money. But then I remembered a trusty option in our UFC betting tool kit and went with another option: the MMA point spread.
In this case, Murphy is handicapped 3.5 points (-3.5) at -105 odds. If Murphy wins all three rounds with 30-27 scores (90-81 overall), we easily cover the spread. We just need Murphy to win by scores of 30-27, 29-28, 29-28 – or better – to win. Of course, if Murphy wins by a KO or submission (not easy against Ige), the bet is also an automatic winner.
Long story short, Murphy – with a height and reach advantage – just has too many avenues to comfortably win rounds against a well-rounded but overmatched challenger.
And at near-even money via DraftKings? That works for me, though it'll be a smaller half-unit play.
Dann's Pick: Lerone Murphy -3.5 point spread (-105 at DraftKings)
