Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic Odds
| Ankalaev Odds | -400 |
| Rakic Odds | +300 |
| Over/Under | TBA |
| Location | Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi |
| Bout Time | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC odds as of Wednesday and via BetMGM. Bet on UFC 308 with our BetMGM promo code. | |
Check out the Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic odds for Saturday, October 26, with my UFC 308 betting preview and breakdown.
Magomed Ankalaev is 19-1 overall and 10-1 in the UFC with his last loss coming in his debut against Paul Craig in 2018. He deserves to be the next – and was deservedly the most recent – title challenger at light heavyweight, but instead is taking on the UFC's No. 5-ranked 205-pound contender, Aleksandar Rakic.
Rakic was once a title contender himself, but he's fought just once since tearing his ACL against Jan Blachowicz in 2022. That fight resulted in a knockout loss to Jiri Prochazka at UFC 300, making Rakic now winless in the past 42 months.
However, he had his moments against Prozchaka, and he's now one more fight removed from the injury. Will that be enough to get past Ankalaev, or will the Russian finally earn his title shot at UFC 308?
Here's my Ankalaev vs. Rakic pick and prediction.
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Ankalaev | Rakic | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-1-1 | 14-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:21 | 11:02 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/2/1992 | 2/6/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.64 | 4.26 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.25 | 2.80 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.02 | 0.76 |
| TD Acc | 31% | 25% |
| TD Def | 86% | 85% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.1 |
One of the reasons Ankalaev has yet to get a crack at champ Alex Pereira's title is an arguably undeserved reputation for being a boring fighter. Despite his Dagestani lineage, Ankalaev's best attribute is arguably his striking, not his grappling.
Six of his 10 UFC wins have come via knockout, and none of those was via ground and pound.
Officially listed as orthodox, Ankalaev often starts fights as a southpaw. While he doesn't often win the lead-leg battle against opposite-stance fighters – see his draw against Jan Blachowicz for a good example – the stance opens up powerful open stance kicks from the rear left leg.
Ankalaev is fairly patient on his feet, looking to draw big misses from his opponent that he'll counter with heavy shots. That can be an issue when fighting taller and longer fighters until he finds his range, but once he makes his reads, he typically is able to find a comfortable distance from which to do damage.
The Russian has solid overall defense with a high guard and good head movement. However, a wide stance and the aforementioned footwork issues leave him vulnerable to leg kicks. To his credit, he almost always responds with one of his own after taking one, but it's a dangerous game to play over an extended period.
While it's not Plan A, we still should note the grappling from Ankalaev. He does a good job of mixing in takedowns to secure close rounds (Blachowicz fight) or give himself a breather against over-aggressive opponents (the first Johnny Walker fight). The 31% listed takedown accuracy is a bit misleading; many of the failed attempts were merely disrupting his opponent's rhythm rather than earnest attempts to bring the fight to the ground.
Ankalaev's lack of offense after getting the takedown is a concern, though. He's never (officially) attempted a submission, and damage on the ground is mostly an afterthought. Not only can that cost him rounds, but it also reduces his chances of hurting his opponent.
He'll need to take advantage of any opportunity to hurt Rakic he can find. "Rocket" is a dangerous striker, particularly with the leg kicks that have troubled Ankalaev in the past. Over Rakic's past two fights, 40% of his landed strikes have been to the leg.
The height and reach edge of Rakic further help his kicking game; if he manages distance well, he can land leg kicks while out of Ankalaev's range. He won the first round at UFC 300 against Jiri Prochazka with that plan, while landing 17 leg kicks in the round.
Then Prochazka turned up the pace late in the first round and into the second. Rakic got sucked into a brawl with his reckless opponent, and his durability failed him in the war.
Ankalaev vs. Rakic Pick
While Ankalaev doesn't have the same level of aggression that Prochazka brought to his fight with Rakic, he's similarly dangerous on the feet. Ankalaev's tendency to "kick the kicker" will make Rakic think twice about a leg kick-heavy approach, and his counterstriking will force Rakic to take some shots in order to give them.
Following serious injuries and a knockout loss, I have serious questions about Rakic's ability to withstand that type of fight. Which makes it puzzling that the market expects this one to go the distance; Rakic probably needs a finish, and he could easily get finished himself.
I'm even more surprised at the disparity between Ankalaev's -380 moneyline and +200 odds to win inside the distance. He knows a finish goes a long way toward making himself undeniable for a title shot.
Which is why that's the bet this time around. Ankalaev has too many weapons, and Rakic has too many durability question marks for a +200 line.
Billy's Pick: Magomed Ankalaev by finish (+200 at DraftKings)
