Mateusz Rebecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai Odds
| Rebecki Odds | +250 |
| Orolbai Odds | -334 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / -115) |
| Location | Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi |
| Bout Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC odds as of Thursday and via bet365. Bet on UFC 308 with our bet365 promo code. | |
Check out the Mateusz Rebecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai odds for UFC 308 on Saturday, October 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Fortunes change quickly in MMA. Six months ago, Mateusz Rebecki was an exciting prospect with a 3-0 UFC record, and he was a massive favorite against veteran Diego Ferreira. Rebecki lost that fight late after a strong start – and now finds himself on the other side of the prospect/veteran dynamic.
Myktybek Orolbai is the promising up-and-comer in this matchup with a 13-1 overall record and a 2-0 run in the UFC. The Kyrgyzstan native has all the trappings of the dominant grappler archetype: beard with no mustache, wrestling-based game plan, festive hat.
The market is certainly treating him as such, installing him as a 3-1 favorite over Rebecki.
Is that line justified, or are we collectively overfitting the model based on other similar fighters?
Here's my Rebecki vs. Orolbai pick and prediction.
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Rebecki | Orolbai | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-2 | 13-1-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:44 | 12:06 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/3/1992 | 2/10/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.69 | 3.02 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.15 | 2.56 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.12 | 7.44 |
| TD Acc | 75% | 44% |
| TD Def | 33% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 0.6 |
Poland's Mateusz Rebecki cut his teeth on the no-gi grappling scene before transitioning to MMA with multiple upper-belt titles at both the national and continental levels. He has a near-perfect build for grappling, standing just 5-foot-7 with short limbs and a nonexistent neck.
"Rebeasti" has managed to make the most out of his physical and technical gifts as an MMA fighter. He has a dominant top game featuring both effective ground and pound and submission skills.
Somewhat surprisingly, he also transitions very well. Often we see MMA fighters with a dominant base art show a bit of "lag" when switching from one domain to another. His countryman Mateusz Gamrot is a good example of this. Rebecki times his takedowns extremely well, either as follow-ups to his own heavy shots or by ducking under strikes from his opponent.
Rebecki wouldn't win many boxing or kickboxing matches, but he's an excellent example of a fighter who uses his grappling to set up his strikes. Rebecki wings wild haymakers and heavy leg kicks on the feet, with the confidence that his opponents lack the ability or desire to take him down.
The wrestling threat also typically leads to a lowered guard from his opponents, since they want their hand(s) in a position to down block or sprawl to protect their lead leg.
He's also fairly sound defensively on his feet, using head movement to press forward and overcome his reach disadvantage.
At least until he gets tired. Rebecki's stocky build, heavy swings and aggressive grappling typically mean he has about seven or eight minutes of cardio. He was dominant through the first half or so of his loss against Diego Ferreira, but totally out of gas from that point on.
That's the key dynamic at play against Orolbai. Both fighters feature a vaguely similar skill set and approach, with forward pressure and heavy shots designed to set up takedowns.
His striking is much smoother than Rebecki's, with straight shots and lead leg kicks as opposed to heavy hooks and rear leg power kicks.
His top game is similarly impressive, with more than 14 of his 24 UFC minutes spent in top control time.
He was briefly reversed on a couple of occasions against the jiu-jitsu-based Elves Brener, which Rebecki could replicate if Orolbai manages to land takedowns.
Orolbai's leaner build and smoother striking should also favor him in the cardio department. However, he was taken down three times by Brener in the final round, and like Rebecki (prior to the Ferreira fight), he's been so dominant over lesser opposition that there are serious questions about his ability to perform as the "nail."
Rebecki vs. Orolbai Pick
As an unabashed grappling nerd, these are two of my favorite lesser-known fighters in the stacked lightweight division.
I came into this one planning on taking Rebecki's point spread, with the +3.5 line at DraftKings a solid +110. The logic there was that Rebecki's aggression and power should serve him well in the first round, with the hope he can survive to the final bell.
I'm still making that bet, but what I saw from Orolbai on tape is pushing me to go a step further and adding a play on the moneyline. His fight with Elves Brener could've easily been scored a draw (thanks to a point deduction), with Orolbai lucky to be given the third round on all three judges.
Rebecki will have hopefully learned some lessons from his first UFC loss in how to manage his gas tank. He needs to thread a fairly tight needle between the aggression that has served him well and awareness of his cardio, but with odds of +260 at Caesars Sportsbook, I'm willing to bet he can.
Billy's Picks: Mateusz Rebecki +3.5 point spread (+110 at DraftKings, 0.5u) | Rebecki moneyline (+260 Caesars, 0.5u)
