Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Carlos Leal Odds
| Fakhretdinov Odds | -225 |
| Leal Odds | +185 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-245 / +180) |
| Location | Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi |
| Bout Time | 10 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 308 odds as of Saturday and via BetRivers. Bet on UFC 308 with our BetRivers promo code. | |
Check out the Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Carlos Leal odds for UFC 308 on Saturday, October 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Rinat Fakhretdinov was originally slated to take on Nurlston Ruziboev at UFC 308 today, but an injury to Ruziboev forced him off the card. In his place is newcomer Carlos Leal.
Leal is a former LFA welterweight champion who also had a 5-2 record in the PFL, making him more than ready to step up to the UFC level. He was also already booked for a fight in Abu Dhabi this week, so some of the "short notice" concerns are at the least lessened this time around.
However, Fakhretdinov is undefeated through five fights in the UFC, so this isn't the easiest welcome to the promotion.
Let's dig through some tape on the newcomer to see how his style matches up with Fakhretdinov, and figure out what betting angles we can find.
Here's my Fakhretdinov vs. Leal pick and prediction.
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Fakhretdinov | Leal | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-1-1 | 21-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:11 | n/a |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/28/1991 | 5/4/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.17 | 0.00 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.71 | 0.00 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 0% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.43 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.0 |
The Brazilian Carlos Leal trains out of a muay Thai gym in Curitiba, which should already have old-school MMA fans paying attention. Curitiba was home to the original Chute Boxe muay Thai academy, which produced striking-focused MMA superstars Anderson Silva, Wanderlei Silva and the Rua brothers in the early 2000s.
The stance-switching Leal draws some inspiration from those fighters with an upright stance, low hands and dangerous all-around striking game. Leal is a pure striker, who mixes in heavy leg kicks, straight punches and the occasional spinning attacks.
His style is more reminiscent of Anderson Silva than the hyper-aggressive Wanderlei since he looks to counter and land big single shots rather than swarm his opponents with volume. That's probably a better style against a grappler like Fakhretdinov, who provides less obvious takedown opportunities by remaining patient at range.
Leal's only losses in the past decade came under the PFL banner to Sadibou Sy, who went on to win the 2022 PFL welterweight championship. Sy held an eight-inch reach edge over Leal, which proved challenging for the Brazilian's range-based striking attack.
Leal mostly unsuccessfully resorted to grappling in that fight, though he did land a second-round takedown and control that round with about three minutes of control time.
Either way, grappling won't be the Plan A against Fakhretdinov, who's never been taken down in the UFC while averaging more than four takedowns per 15 minutes of his own. On the plus side, Leal at least theoretically has the chops to survive grappling encounters with Fakhretdinov, whose only UFC finish came against an injured Kevin Lee.
While Fakhretdinov is undefeated in the UFC, he arguably lost his fight against Nicholas Dalby, which was scored a split decision in his favor. Prior to that, he had a majority draw against Elizeu Zaleski, and the finish over a compromised Lee.
Both of his close fights were against vaguely similar stylistic fighters as Leal: dangerous strikers with enough ground game to make Fakhretdinov work for his success in that realm.
Notably, in both of those fights, Fakhretdinov won the first rounds easily before fading down the stretch. That's fairly common for wrestling-heavy fighters at heavier weight classes since grappling is so much more taxing than striking.
Leal was able to find more success down the stretch in both losses against Sy, but he has finished his four other most recent fights.
Fakhretdinov vs. Leal Pick
I fully expected to be on the other side of this one when I started my research, but my favorite way to bet this is a live bet on the short-notice fighter. Normally, that's a bad idea, but given that he was already fighting in the same place this week, it's more of an opponent switch than a short-notice booking.
This is the opening bout of a card that starts at 10 a.m. ET (7 a.m. PT), so I wouldn't blame anyone for not being ready to fire bright and early.
That being said, we can bet on a similar dynamic by taking Leal's Round 3/Decision prop at FanDuel at +370 odds. We're taking on the risk of Rakhretdinov mauling him on the ground early, but waiting for a live bet is taking a risk that we don't get a better price.
As a reminder, the bet can be round under "Alternate Round Betting" in the FanDuel menu.
Billy's Pick: Carlos Leal in Round 3/by Decision (+370 at FanDuel)
