Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev Odds
Check out the Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev odds for UFC 308 on Saturday, October 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The co-headliner in Abu Dhabi features an important fight for the middleweight title picture with Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev.
Despite being officially ranked the No. 13 contender in the UFC middleweight division, Chimaev's hype and promotional push could help him leapfrog a large part of the stable with a potential win over a perennial contender such as Whittaker.
A former champion who had a short but memorable reign, Whittaker has lost only to championship-level fighters while campaigning in this weight class.
Currently riding an impressive two-fight winning streak, Whittaker will look to make a case for another chance at gold should he be the first to best the undefeated Chimaev.
Here's my Whittaker vs. Chimaev pick and prediction.
Dan Tom's Tale of the Tape
| Whittaker | Chimaev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 27-7 | 13-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:33 | 6:27 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/20/1990 | 5/1/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.58 | 5.72 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.44 | 3.46 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 42% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.80 | 3.99 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 46% |
| TD Def | 82% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 2.7 |
This matchup pits together two powerful 185-pound middleweights who, somehow, used to compete as 170-pound welterweights.
Chimaev, who spent the earlier part of his UFC tenure bouncing between weight classes, appears to be settling into his more natural home of 185 pounds.
Although Chimaev comes from a wrestling base, the Chechen wildman has proven that he can hold his own on the feet. Competent from both stances, Chimaev is good about staying active with stiff jabs from either side. When feeling in stride, Chimaev will combo off of kicks and look to step into power shots from the rear.
That said, Chimaev's A game undoubtedly lies within the grappling realm.
An accolades freestyle wrestler, Chimaev has seamlessly picked up a submission grappling style that compliments his riding sensibilities. From front chokes to rear-naked chokes, Chimaev's aggressive rides allow him to abuse turtling opponents with impunity.
Luckily for Whittaker, the Australian has put a lot of work into his wrestling since moving up to this weight class.
Aside from winning an Australian national championship for wrestling, Whittaker has maintained one of the better takedown defense rates in the division at a solid 82 percent. And when fights have hit the floor, Whittaker's submission defense has also held up (with the Brazilian jiu-jitsu's lone blemish in this department coming over a decade ago when Whittaker was only 20).
As one of the best jabbers at middleweight, Whittaker typically likes to make his money on the feet.
Coming from a traditional martial arts base, Whittakers possesses a unique blend of boxing to his slightly bouncy, in-and-out movements.
When feeling in stride, Whittaker will attach sneaky head kicks off the same side of his crosses – something that could serve the former champion well this Saturday.
But with Chimaev's looming takedown threats, I wouldn't be surprised if Whittaker is forced to shelve some of his offense early on.
Whittaker vs. Chimaev Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the younger fighter, listing Chimaev -275 and Whittaker +210 as of this writing.
Between the bookmakers loving undefeated fighters to the gen pop loving anyone who resembles the style or swagger of Khabib Nurmagomedov, no one should be shocked to see Chimaev installed as a decent favorite over a respected former champ like Whittaker.
Nevertheless, I still can't justify laying any juice on the Chimaev side as north of a 2-1 favorite.
Aside from the fact that Chimaev's health is constantly in question due to his admitted, well-documented struggles with COVID-related issues, the Chechen juggernaut has traditionally struggled with his stamina any time fights extend past the first frame.
I also believe that Whittaker possesses a uniquely tough stylistic matchup for Chimaev given his takedown defense and countering ability (which is probably why Chimaev tried to initially buddy up to Whittaker when entering this division).
Whether you're looking at his takedown defense against Yoel Romero or his submission defense against Ronaldo Souza, Whittaker has traditionally been nightmare fuel for grapple-first fighters.
I may be on a bad betting skid, but Whittaker is the only fighter I've yet to officially pick against since moving up to middleweight (as Whittaker has produced positive ROI for myself and his backers during his UFC tenure).
That reason alone is more than enough for me to take Whittaker at 2-1 underdog odds against nearly anyone, especially a less-proven product.
Outside of the Under 2.5 rounds option for bullish Chimaev backers looking for a better price tag, the totals department feels like trap territory this week.
I invite you to tail me on some mid-to-late round sprinkles on Whittaker if you're looking for some long odds to have fun with, but it's underdog or bust from my view.
Dan's Pick: Robert Whittaker (+210 at Caesars Sportsbook)
