UFC 308 Odds, Predictions for All 13 Fights With Sean Zerillo’s Betting Breakdown & Preview for Saturday, October 26

Check out the latest UFC 308 odds and betting lines with my predictions for all 13 fights for Saturday afternoon's pay-per-view in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Below, I take a look at all of the latest UFC 308 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card.

Here's how to watch UFC 308 today: The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ at 10 a.m. ET (7 a.m. PT), and then the main card is on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 2 p.m. ET (PPV cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 308 odds, today's event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 308 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC 308 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 308 with our DraftKings promo code.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 308 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's x bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC 308 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

UFC 308 Odds

Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Carlos Leal

Crowdsourced Projections: Rinat Fakhretdinov (62.6%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Rinat Fakhredtinov vs. Carlos Leal preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Leal is making his UFC debut on short notice instead of Nursulton Ruziboev. However, Leal was initially scheduled to fight on UAE Warriors 55 in Abu Dhabi on this week before signing with the UFC, alleviating most of the travel and training camp concerns I'd have for fighters on short notice.

Leal is three years younger than his opponent, Fakhretdinov, who has shown cardio issues in extended fights. Leal hasn't been finished since a 2014 submission or lost to anyone other than a huge Saidobou Sy (6'3", 80" reach) – including one split loss – over that span.

Leal is the better striker in this matchup, with superior cardio – and he's at size parity. If he can resist the early grappling from Fakhredtinov, he should land more damage over the final 10 minutes of the fight.

I projected his moneyline closer to +167; bet Leal to +180 pre-fight, and look to add more live after Round 1.

I also show slight value either on Leal by decision (projected +435, listed +490) or by KO/TKO (projected +535, listed +550), and I think his odds to win in Rounds 3 (+1800) could be a worthy dart throw against a gassy opponent.

And if you're going that route, you might as well play the prop Billy recommended in his preview linked above.

Rinat has received positive scorecard variance in his past two decisions; 72% of fans and the majority of media members scored his split win for Nicolas Dalby, while 51.6% of fans and the majority of media cards thought he lost or drew in a majority win against Elizeu Zaleski.

Bets

• Carlos Leal (+200, 0.25u) & (+190, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Carlos Leal Live after Round 1

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Ismail Naurdiev vs. Bruno Silva

Crowdsourced Projections: Ismail Naurdiev (63%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Ismail Naurdiev vs. Bruno Silva preview from my colleague Clint Maclean.

Naurdiev returns to the UFC as a middleweight after a 2-2 stint at welterweight (four decisions) from 2019-2020. He's six years younger than Bruno Silva, who has looked progressively worse in the UFC (three-fight losing streak, 1-5 in his past six fights) after a 3-0 start with three knockouts.

Silva is the more dangerous striker, but Naurdiev has the grappling upside in the fight, justifying his favoritism. He's closer to the value side of the moneyline (projected -170), but I'd need at least -155 or better to back the favorite.

Instead, bet the Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) or Goes to Decision Prop (+140) at plus money; I expect this fight to reach the scorecards on the positive side of a coinflip (projected 51.2%, -105).

Also, consider sprinkling Naurdiev by decision (projected +189, listed +350) or including the prop on round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Over 2.5 rounds (+110, 0.25u) at Caesars

Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo

Crowdsourced Projections: Farid Basharat (84.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo preview from my colleague Bryan Fonseca.

The underdog, Hugo, is closer to the value side of the moneyline; however, I'd need him to blow out closer to +625 (13.8% implied) before jumping in.

Otherwise, I project a slight edge on Basharat by decision (projected -143, listed -130 at FanDuel). Still, most of the market is at -138 or higher for that prop, and I wouldn't play that bet beyond -132 (56.9% implied), at a 2% edge compared to my projected line.

The Basharat brothers have both been criticized for their lack of finishing aggression.

Farid's brother, Javid, lost his most recent decision in March – the first loss of either of their careers – and perhaps Farid is more proactive about progressing towards a finish in his first fight since.

Bets

• Pass

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Chris Barnett

Crowdsourced Projections: Kennedy Nzechukwu (86.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Chris Barnett preview from my colleague Clint Maclean.

Kennedy is moving up to heavyweight for this fight but will still have a significant eight-inch advantage in height and reach over Barnett, one of the shorter heavyweights in UFC history, who does have a 25-pound weight advantage.

However, Barnett has also withdrawn from three of his past four scheduled fights, including his most recent booking against Justin Tafa two weeks ago. He might be nursing several injuries and taking this fight to fulfill his contract.

I don't project value on the moneyline, total or any winning method props for this fight. I'd lean to the Under 1.5 rounds (-120) rather than betting Nzechukwu to win in Round 1 (+188).

Bets

• Pass

Abus Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira

Crowdsourced Projections: Abus Magomedov (63.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Abus Magomedov vs. Brunno Ferreira preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

Ferreira is a monster puncher – with all 12 of his career wins by Round 1 KO/TKO – but he's at a severe size (4" shorter, 6" reach discrepancy) and grappling disadvantage against Magomedov.

Magomedov has range weapons – specifically his teep kicks – to stay out of Ferreira's range while landing damage of his own, and he showed a willingness to proactively grapple in his last fight against Warrley Alves (landed six of seven takedowns, 11:56 control time).

Neither fighter has great cardio, but Abus has substantially more MMA experience and a winning record in decisions (6-2).

Early iterations of this fight favor the underdog – and playing Ferreira by Round 1 KO/TKO (+600) is always viable.

Still, I prefer Abus on the moneyline up to -157 (projected -171) pre-fight, and I'd add more live after Round 1.

Alternatively, you could place a same-game parlay (SGP) with Magomedov & Over 1.5 Rounds (+250) or take him to win by decision (projected +428, listed +550 at FanDuel).

Bets

• Abus Magomedov (-142, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• SGP: Abus Magomedov & Over 1.5 Rounds (+215, 0.1u) at BallyBet
• Abus Magomedov Live after Round 1

Mateusz Rebecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai

Crowdsourced Projections: Myktybek Orolbai (69.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Mateusz Rebecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

I'd encourage you to read Billy's breakdown. We agree on this fight, but it's also his favorite bet on this card.

Orolbai has a significant size advantage in this matchup (3" taller, 8" reach advantage). However, Rebecki is the more skilled MMA fighter and has the wrestling skills to resist or deny Orolbai's primary plan of attack.

Rebecki is well-rounded and has been favored in each of his UFC bouts, including his recent loss (which closed as high as -480), so it's surprising to find him as a sizeable underdog.

I projected his moneyline at +232 for Saturday and would happily bet Rebecki at +250 or better.

However, I prefer his +3.5 point spread at plus money; at a minimum, I'd expect Rebecki to win one round and make this fight much more competitive than the odds indicate.

As a possible round-robin boost, I project a slight edge on Rebecki by decision (projected +564, listed +700 at BetRivers).

Bets

• Mateusz Rebecki (+275, 0.2u) at Caesars
• Mateusz Rebecki +3.5 points (+110 0.25u) at DraftKings

Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Crowdsourced Projections: Geoff Neal (73.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

I'd insist that RDA has faced the most difficult strength of schedule in MMA history – with fights against prime Donald Cerrone, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez, Tony Ferguson, Robbie Lawler, Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards – among plenty of other recognizable names.

The Brazilian turns 40 on Saturday and, with his permanent move to welterweight, will be at a size disadvantage against a potent striker in Geoff Neal (3" taller, 5" reach discrepancy).

RDA no longer has the speed to compete with ranked lightweights, but I'm not confident that he has the strength to wrestle welterweights. His fight against Vicente Luque (landed two of seven takedowns, permitted eight of 11, and spent 48% of the fight in control positions) was a concerning look.

Dos Anjos will proactively grapple (averages 3.7 takedown attempts per round at a distance, 55% accuracy) and force Neal to fight in the clinch up against the cage or look to control him on the mat.

Neal has shown solid takedown defense (90% career) and is the much more powerful striker in this fight. He has vastly more finishing upside and should land the more noticeable damage to win clearer rounds.

RDA's upside is likely a narrower 29-28 win, but his decision prop (projected +398, listed +550 at FanDuel) should also be more closely aligned with his moneyline price.

Poke RDA by decision to +425 or consider Neal by KO/TKO (projected +204, listed +230) to +215. I have repeatedly gone back and forth on which prop I'd prefer to bet.

Bets

• TBA

Ibo Aslan vs. Raffael Cerqueira

Crowdsourced Projections: Raffael Cerqueira (53.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Ibo Aslan vs. Raffael Cerqueria preview from my colleague Clint Maclean.

Cerqueria will make his UFC debut on Saturday in a featured prelim after three canceled Contender Series bouts. He opened as a +150 underdog against Aslan, but the line has steadily ticked in his direction; I'd consider Aslan at +120 or higher.

The Brazilian, Cerqueria, is an undefeated teammate of Jailton Almeida, but he's 34 and has faced low-level regional competition (his past five opponents have a combined sub .500 record); it's difficult to judge how his skillset will translate against a high level of competition.

Aslan was submitted in his only career loss – a fight he later avenged against Anton Turkalj after improving his defensive wrestling (he stuffed all eight takedown attempts in the rematch).

Still, Cerqueria is likely a more potent finisher than Turkalj if this fight does hit the mat, and I show slight value on Cerqueria to win by submission (projected +527, listed +800), which I'd take small at +600 or better.

Bets

• Raffael Cerqueria wins by Submission (+800, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan

Crowdsourced Projections: Shara Magomedov (55%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

I'll continue to find ways to bet against the undefeated Magomedov, whose point-fighting, kick-oriented skill set doesn't match the Bond villain hype or aesthetic.

Magomedov has a 2" reach advantage in this matchup. Still, Petrosyan has much better hands and has proven to be an educated and technical distance striker (+3.4 differential per minute) against high competition. He's also slightly taller and has longer legs, assisting his kicking game.

Petrosyan has mostly faced grapplers in the UFC. In his lone fight against a fellow kickboxer (Christian Leroy Duncan), Petrosyan won the distance striking (77-58) but also initiated the wrestling (landed one of two takedown attempts, denied all three from Duncan, and spent 3:21 in control positions).

I'd expect Petrosyan to keep the striking extremely competitive against Shara, but he retains all of the grappling upside in this matchup, too. Shara has been taken down six times in his three UFC Fights, three each by Bruno Silva and Michael Oleksiejzuk, a pair of power strikers with limited cardio.

I projected Petrosyan as a +122 underdog; bet his pre-fight moneyline at +130 or better. Take his point spread (+3.5 points) to -200; I'd be stunned if Shara shut him down for 15 minutes.

I view Shara as the more durable of the two fighters, but Petrosyan might also offer better cardio in a high-paced fight; I'd bet Armen live at a better number after Round 1 – especially if he hasn't grappled to that point.

Lastly, consider betting Petrosyan to win by decision (projected +196, listed +270 at BetRivers)

Bets

• Armen Petrosyan (+155, 0.5u) at DraftKings
• Armen Petrosyan +3.5 Points (-175, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Armen Petrosyan Live after Round 1

Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige

Crowdsourced Projections: Lerone Murphy (75.6%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige preview from my colleague Dann Stupp.

Murphy's first main event appearance – against Edson Barboza in May – seemed like a potential championship-worthy performance. Still, the unbeaten Englishman will have to maintain the same pace in a three-round fight against the very dangerous Ige, who got off a massage table in June to fight Diego Lopes to a competitive decision on a mere hours' notice.

Fighters can struggle to dial back to their first three-round fight after training for and competing over 25 minutes. The margins are slimmer, rounds require more urgency, and Murphy can be a slow starter.

He is the taller and longer fighter in this matchup (2" advantage in height and reach) and the quicker athlete, but he must be mindful of Ige's power – which ranks among the best in the featherweight division.

Murphy has all of the grappling upside in this fight, too. Ige has struggled to defend takedowns (59% career), and he can get stuck in defensive positions for long stretches, especially if his opponent can take his back.

I show a slightly more significant edge on Murphy to win by decision (projected -153, listed -134 at BetRivers) than on Murphy's moneyline at -270 (projected -309); Ige offers substantially more finishing equity in this fight.

Bet Murphy's decision prop to -145 or use his moneyline as a parlay piece to -293.

Bets

• Lerone Murphy wins by Decision (-134, 0.25u) at BallyBet

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Crowdsourced Projections: Magomed Ankalaev (78.4%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Ankalaev might be the best light heavyweight on the planet – and I'd favor him in a matchup against current champion Alex Pereira. His only career loss remains a questionable submission in the final second of his UFC debut against Paul Craig (while leading on the scorecards).

Still, Ankalaev rarely optimizes his skill set and pursues the path of least resistance, which often involves grappling against fellow heavyweights.

He's a highly technical but low-volume striker (lands 3.7 strikes per minute) who doesn't pursue takedowns as often as he should (attempts 1.6 per round at a distance, 31% accuracy).

Rakic has a three-inch reach advantage and is the more aggressive fighter; there's a chance that Rakic's aggression brings out the best in Ankalaev, who likes to sit back and counter.

Ankalaev may respond to pressure by shooting a takedown if he can't land his check hook. Still, he's also the more durable athlete and likelier to come out on top in a swinging match – which he had against a hyper-aggressive Ion Cutelaba.

I don't project value on the moneyline or the total in this matchup. Still, if Ankalev pursues the grappling, he should have an opportunity to secure his first career submission (projected +1176, listed +1800 at DraftKings), and I'd prefer his odds to win inside the distance (projected +184, listed +210 at FanDuel).

If you like the underdog, Rakic might land more volume across a 15-minute fight, creating value in his decision prop (projected +670, listed +700 at BetRivers).

Bets

• Magomed Ankalaev wins Inside the Distance (+210, 0.25u) at FanDuel

Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Crowdsourced Projections: Khamzat Chimaev (68.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

In nearly all iterations of this fight, I'd lean towards Khamzat early or Whittaker late. Chimaev has a severe physicality edge over his opponents, particularly early, and he's a bigger athlete than Whittaker (2" taller, 2" reach advantage).

While Whittaker is an excellent counter-grappler (82% takedown defense), he struggled with Dricus Du Plessis' physicality. I'd expect "The Reaper" to get outmuscled for the first 10 minutes before potentially working himself back into the fight.

I think Khamzat's KO/TKO win is far likelier than a submission; Whittaker has shown himself to be potentially chinny in the latter stages of his career, reacting poorly to strikes from du Plessis and Israel Adesanya, in particular.

It's highly viable to bet Khamzat by Round 1 KO/TKO (+700) or to win in Round 1 (+290) pre-fight and then roll those into a live wager on Whittaker after the opening round.

Still, I'm not fond of Khamzat's cardio in an extended fight – he likely loses to both Kamaru Usman (on short notice) and Gilbert Burns over five rounds, and Whittaker is arguably the most technical and efficient striker he's ever faced (+1.3 to -0.9 strike differential per minute at distance).

I'd want at least +250 to bet Whittaker on the pre-fight moneyline (projected +215) since I expect Khamzat to win the first five to seven minutes at a high rate. However, the longer the fight, the better it is for Bobby Knuckles; bet Whittaker live after Round 1 regardless of your pre-fight position.

I project value on the Over 2.5 Rounds at a pick'em or the go-to decision prop (projected +258, listed +350 at FanDuel) at juicier odds.

I prefer the Over, alongside Whittaker by decision (projected +600, listed +700), or a same-game parlay with Whittaker and the Over 1.5 (+250) or 2.5 (+310) rounds.

And I'd consider targeting Whittaker to finish the fight in Round 4 (+2000) or Round 5 (+2200) with Khamzat potentially extending to five rounds for the first time in his career.

Bets

• Over 2.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Robert Whittaker Live after Round 1

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway

Crowdsourced Projections: Ilia Topuria (72.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out my Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway preview.

In short, I projected Topuria as a -260 favorite (72.3% implied), and I'd bet the champion to -237.

I expect this fight to reach a decision 49% of the time (+103 implied) and would either bet the Over 3.5 Rounds (-118) or Over 4.5 Rounds (+110), compared to a featherweight divisional average of 54%.

I also show an edge on Topuria to win by decision (projected +208, listed +260), which I'd bet at +225 or higher.

Bets

• Over 3.5 Rounds (-118, 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Ilia Topuria wins by Decision (+260, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Sean Zerillo's UFC 308 Picks & Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

• Carlos Leal (+200, 0.25u) & (+190, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Abus Magomedov (-142, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Mateusz Rebecki (+275, 0.2u) at Caesars
• Armen Petrosyan (+155, 0.5u) at DraftKings

Prop Bets and Totals

• Naurdiev/Silva, Over 2.5 Rounds (+110, 0.25u) at Caesars
• Mateusz Rebecki +3.5 Points (+110 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Raffael Cerqueria wins by Submission (+800, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Armen Petrosyan +3.5 Points (-175, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Lerone Murphy wins by Decision (-134, 0.25u) at BallyBet
• Magomed Ankalaev wins Inside the Distance (+210, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Chimaev/Whittaker, Over 2.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• Holloway/Topuria, Over 3.5 Rounds (-118, 0.5u) at FanDuel
• Ilia Topuria wins by Decision (+260, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Parlays

• SGP: Abus Magomedov & Over 1.5 Rounds (+215, 0.1u) at BallyBet

Live Bets

• Carlos Leal Live after Round 1
• Abus Magomedov Live after Round 1
• Armen Petrosyan Live after Round 1
• Robert Whittaker Live after Round 1