Check out our UFC picks with our favorite long-shot UFC 308 props for Saturday, October 26.
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway takes place today at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ beginning at 10 a.m. ET, and the main card is on ESPN+ PPV at 2 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
With 13 fights in today's early card, UFC 308 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found 8 picks they like for the Middle East return.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC 308 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 308 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC 308 Props – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Billy Ward: Oddsmakers Got Carlos Leal All Wrong
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 a.m. ET
The UFC 308 card has been relatively quiet in terms of shuffled fights and late replacements, but we have one with Carlos Leal.
Leal (+195) is taking on Rinat Fakhretdinov (-238) in the opening bout of UFC 308. Fakhretdinov remains undefeated in the UFC at 4-0-1, but he arguably should’ve lost his recent fight to Nicolas Dalby while also fading down the stretch in a draw against Elizeu Zaleski.
Which is something of a problem here as Leal bears a passing resemblance to both men. Like them, he’s a better technical striker than Fakhretdinov. Also like them, he has the grappling chops to survive on the ground with Fakhretdinov. His recent, and only, loss inside the distance was more than a decade ago despite fighting in the PFL and Bellator.
The reason I like the late prop rather than Leal straight up is because I believe books are viewing this the wrong way. They see a short-notice striker and assume he needs an early knockout.
However, Leal was already booked for a fight this week in Abu Dhabi, so this is more of an opponent switch than a true short-notice opportunity. He should have the deeper gas tank in this matchup, making this line (and/or live bets on Leal) a huge value.
The Pick: Carlos Leal in Round 3/Decision (+370 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Myktybek Orolbai's Mispriced Sub Prop
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC prelims feature a lightweight bout between unranked contenders Mateusz Rebecki (+260) and Myktybek Orolbai (-325). The steam is on Orolbai, who opened as a -235 favorite and has since been bet up to his current price.
I agree with the steam, but I believe there is far more value in his submission prop at +500. The game plan has been pretty simple for Orolbai since joining the UFC: land takedowns.
Orolbai landed seven takedowns on 10 attempts in his debut victory over Uros Medic, whom he submitted. Orolbai followed that up with another victory against Elves Brener, whom he took down five times.
Orolbai is averaging 7.44 takedowns per 15 minutes since joining the UFC, and that success is likely to continue against Rebecki. Through five bouts in the UFC, Rebecki has defended just 33% of his takedowns.
That is going to be a recipe for disaster against Orolbai. The question remains, will Orolbai wrestle his way to a decision victory? Will he secure a submission while on the mat? Or can he ground and pound his way to victory?
At 5/1, I believe that the submission route is mispriced. The only reason this line is so long is that Rebecki has never tapped as a professional, but he also possesses a great chin and is an excellent wrestler.
Point being, I think the three Orolbai-winning outcomes are relatively even in terms of probability. However, the odds have the submission route at +500 while a KO/TKO returns +330 and a decision victory is just +150.
I'm taking the value in that submission number, especially in a fight in which Orolbai is likely to land multiple takedowns.
The Pick: Myktybek Orolbai by submission (+500 at FanDuel)
Lian Heslin: The Prop For Newcomer Raffael Cerqueira
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:25 p.m. ET
Raffael Cerqueira is a UFC debutant with an impressive 11-0 resume. At 34, he needs to make an impact quickly in the promotion or he will be cast aside.
Cerqueira represents Galpao Da Luta, the same team that produced UFC prospects Jailton Almeida and Eduarda Moura. He has only produced two wins via submission as a professional fighter (in 11 career victories), but he is also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with extensive experience in and out of the gi.
In the featured UFC 308 prelim, Cerqueira (-125) will face Ibo Aslan (-105), whose only career defeat was against Anton Turkalji via Round 2 submission. Aslan defeated Turkalji in a rematch in his UFC debut and showed improvement by defending all of Turkalji's takedowns.
The problem with evaluating this win is Turkalji is a physical flake, and he has been cut from the promotion after going 0-4.
Sharp books have been taking money on this sub prop despite Cerqueira being a relative unknown to the public. I think oddsmakers and sharps are respecting the potential grappling success of the Galpa Da Luta black belt, and we'll pick off an especially attractive +800 line at FanDuel.
The Pick: Raffael Cerqueira by submission (+800 at FanDuel)
John LanFranca: A Clear Path for Underdog Aleksander Rakic
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:55 p.m. ET
Aleksander Rakic (+295) may no longer have the durability it takes to compete at the highest level of the UFC light heavyweight division, but his path to victory as a substantial underdog over Magomed Ankalaev (-375) is quite clear in my eyes.
Rakic will have to unleash a heavy dose of leg kicks, pick his spots carefully and possibly even land a takedown. The takedown may seem farfetched, but we are only one fight removed from Rakic changing levels and getting Jan Blachowicz to the mat, a fight in which he matched or out-landed Blachowicz in two of the three rounds before his knee gave out.
Ankalaev fights in a manner in which he allows fighters to remain competitive in the fight in the judges’ eyes if he is not getting the finish. An early finish by Ankalaev has plenty of merit here against Rakic, but so does Rakic making this very competitive if Ankalaev is willing to trade at a low-volume pace. Styles make fights, and Rakic had to deal with the much more reckless Jiri Prozachka last time he was in the octagon whereas this fight may look more like a classical kickboxing bout.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Rakic landing more frequently, only for a strike to rock him, making it much more difficult for the judges to score. Living in that gray area is a perfect recipe for a split decision if this does turn out to be a closely contested three-round fight.
There is value on Rakic by decision since Ankalaev has never been knocked out, and it's also worth a shot at the split/majority decision victory for the underdog here as well.
I am splitting my bet between Rakic by decision (+600) and Rakic by split/majority decision (+1800)
The Picks: Aleksandar Rakic by decision (+700 at BetRivers) | Rakic by split/majority decision (+1800 at DraftKings)
Clint MacLean: Robert Whittaker Built for This +700 Prop
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:25 p.m. ET
I know everybody is excited about the return of Khamzat Chimaev on Saturday, but we have seen some cracks in his game. Chimaev is a powerful grappler who likes to bully his opponents early in fights, and if he doesn't get the finish he is looking for, he tends to slow down and start to fall apart a bit the deeper the fight goes.
Chimaev (-225) isn't somebody who's proven he can go 25 minutes at the championship level, and now he is trying to do so against the toughest fighter he's ever faced in a new weight class: Rober Whittaker (+185).
Whittaker is built for 25-minute fights and is a natural 185-pound fighter. We have seen finished early by the current champions in this weight class, but if it weren't for Israel Adesanya or Dricus du Plessis, Whittaker would still have gold wrapped around his waist. The man can strike. The man can wrestle. And he gets stronger the deeper the fight goes.
If Chimaev shows up like he did against Gilbert Burns or even Kamaru Usman, I don't know that he is ready or capable of taking on this kind of opponent. I expect Khamzat to win the early rounds, but if he doesn't get a finish, I expect Whittaker to win the late rounds.
It might all come down to Round 3, and if it does, I like these odds.
The Pick: Robert Whittaker by decision (+700 at Betway)
Dan Tom: Max Holloway – Late, Of Course
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to split my bet between a couple of potential "hot rounds" in UFC 308's main event between Ilia Topuria (-258) and Max Holloway (+210).
Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds in which there's serious potential for a particular party to finish.
Although Topuria's recent form and undefeated record earn him some deserved respect, the Spaniard is not beyond being sat down by strikes.
Aside from Holloway sporting one of the best chins in MMA, the Hawaiian standout wields a diverse shot selection that I see troubling the champ on paper.
Holloway has also historically been more dangerous when being pressured (e.g. his fights with Chan Sung Jung, Brian Ortega, etc.), making his upside for a knockout even higher as far as potential win conditions go.
But to put things in more plain science: Holloway is a fighter you don't feel bad about betting because you know he will always fight hard for your money.
And as someone who cashed a massive Round 5 win ticket on Holloway in his memorable finish of Justin Gaethje last time out, I can also tell you that the former champ is an auto bet when it comes to late-round fliers.
The Picks: Max Holloway by Round 4 KO/TKO/DQ (+3300 at Betway) | Holloway by Round 5 KO/TKO/DQ (+5000 at Betway)
