Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines with UFC 308 predictions for Saturday, October 26, and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued in the Luck Ratings.
UFC 308 takes place at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The 14-fight event starts early with a preliminary card on ESPN+ at 10 a.m. ET and the main card on ESPN+ PPV at 2 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 308 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 308 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Ilia Topuria (-238) vs. Max Holloway (+195)
For years, Max Holloway was the unquestioned second-best featherweight in the world. Outside of fights against Alexander Volkanovski, Holloway has won 17 straight at 145 pounds with his last loss in 2013.
Three losses to the champion made it hard for Holloway to get another crack at his former belt, though. That led to moving up to 155 pounds to fight for the "BMF" title against Justin Gaethje at UFC 300, producing a dominant performance capped off by the Knockout of the Year.
Luckily for Holloway, new featherweight champion Ilia Topuria did what he couldn't and beat Volkanovski for the 145-pound title, giving Holloway's title dreams new life.
Topuria is a rightful favorite here, even without doing the MMA math around their fights with Volkanovski. He's undefeated, five years younger, and has no real flaws. The line has been creeping his way since he opened at around -200.
My only concern for the Topuria side is that he'll engage in the kind of slugfest that Holloway excels in, rather than use his advantages in other areas. It's a slight concern, but given the price tag, it's enough to keep me away.
Verdict: Fairly valued
Khamzat Chimaev (-238) vs. Robert Whittaker (+195)
I won't be sold on this fight actually happening until I see both men in the cage, but as of Monday, it's still on. This UFC 308 co-main event was originally scheduled for June, but the notoriously unreliable Khamzat Chimaev fell ill and couldn't make the walk.
Instead, Robert Whittaker steamrolled replacement opponent Ikram Aliskerov, building some extra hype for this one.
At his best, Chimaev is a mauler with elite physical tools, world-class wrestling, and aggressive ground and pound. However, he's struggled when forced to go the distance, slowing noticeably in later rounds against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman.
On the other hand, Whittaker has plenty of five-round experience with borderline elite cardio and durability for the division. Given that this is a five-round fight, that's a huge edge for Whittaker.
I'd be more than happy jumping in on Whittaker's moneyline, but I think we can do better. Let's wait for later in the week, when his Round 4/5/Decision prop opens up, or hold out for a live bet following a round or two.
Verdict: Robert Whittaker undervalued – but wait for props
Shara Magomedov (-175) vs. Armen Petrosyan (+145)
"Shara Bullet" came into the UFC with plenty of hype, and he's lived up to it in some ways with a 3-0 record.
However, they were relatively uninspiring wins given the level of competition for Shara Magomedov with one late stoppage and two decision victories.
He faces a big step up in Armen Petrosyan. Magomedov comes from a pure striking background, but Petrosyan is arguably the more decorated kickboxer. He won the world amateur muay Thai championship before transitioning to MMA, and he has never been out-struck in a UFC fight.
Assuming Magomedov lacks either the desire or ability to take down Petrosyan, this fight is – at worst – a coin flip. Petrosyan could even mix in a takedown of his own, as he did against Christian Leroy Duncan.
Which makes the plus-money lines on Petrosyan a solid value. He was as high as +205 at open, so the sharp money is coming in heavily. Grab the +155 at Caesars Sportsbook before that's gone too.
Verdict: Armen Petrosyan undervalued
Abus Magomedov (-148) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+124)
I have a suspicion the only reason Abus Magomedov is favored in this bout is his last name. The middleweight is 2-2 in the UFC with wins over a former welterweight on a four-fight losing skid (Warlley Alves) and a fighter who's 2-5 in the UFC (Dustin Stoltzfus).
He also got knocked out by Sean Strickland, so he's the only fighter to be finished by the former champ in his past 10 fights.
Brunno Ferreira is 3-1 in the UFC with three first-round knockouts, including won as a massive underdog against Gregory Rodrigues, who's 7-2 in the UFC. That's a scary sign for Magomedov, given he's suffered two knockdowns in four UFC fights.
If his name were Abus Smith, I suspect these lines would be reversed. The only thing keeping me from betting it now is the fact that the market is moving the lines toward Magomedov, and my desire to play knockout or first-round props instead.
Keep an eye on the lines, though. If they start to drop before props are released, I'll be jumping on the Ferreira moneyline.
Verdict: Brunno Ferreira undervalued
Myktybek Orolbai (-298) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+240)
Kyrgryzstan's Myktybek Orolbai has impressed in his two UFC fights to date with a submission victory and a dominant 30-27 decision.
Like many UFC 308 fighters, he's stepping up in competition. This time, it's against Mateusz Rebecki, who's is 3-1 in the UFC and nearly finished Diego Ferreira in the first round of his only loss.
Rebecki's cardio is a concern as he showed against Ferreira, but he's otherwise a tough stylistic matchup for Orolbai. Orolbai has 12 takedowns across his two wins while Rebecki is a former European Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion and a high-level BJJ black belt.
Given the odds, this would also be a solid spot to take a +3.5 point spread bet on Rebecki. I expect him to win the first round at a fairly high clip, which would cash that bet as long as he doesn't get finished.
For that reason, I'm betting just a half unit on Rebecki's moneyline, where the +240 line is widely available. Assuming it's solidly plus money, I'll double down on the point spread later in the week.
