Check out our UFC 308 predictions for the Saturday, October 23, event in Abu Dhabi that starts at a special early time of 10 a.m. ET (7 a.m. PT).
Our MMA experts have studied this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets. And we've found plenty of value on the Middle East fight card.
UFC 308 takes place at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ beginning at 10 a.m. ET, and the main card is on ESPN+ PPV at 2 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
So where should you look to place your UFC 308 bets? Our crew has pinpointed X bouts and X picks on the Topuria vs. Holloway fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
UFC 308 odds for matchups as of Friday. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
UFC 308 Predictions
Billy Ward: Mateusz Rebecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 p.m. ET
There’s a certain degree of poetic matchmaking in the UFC 308 prelim bout between Mateusz Rebecki and Myktybek Orolbai.
Orolbai has run through lesser competition early in his UFC career with a 2-0 record thanks to stifling grappling and heavy shots on the feet.
However, we saw a momentary crack in the armor down the stretch against Elves Brener late in his last fight as Orolbai faded heavily in the third round and nearly lost the fight.
That would’ve been a reasonably accurate one-paragraph summary of Mateusz Rebecki’s UFC career before his last fight. He was 3-0 in the promotion with two finishes, and he had a dominant first round against Carlos Diego Ferreira before fading and getting finished in the third.
The hope here is that Rebecki has learned some lessons in terms of managing his gas tank following the loss. Even if he hasn’t, the multiple-time European no-gi grappling champion can hang with Orolbai on the ground, and he is a dangerous enough striker to potentially take an early round on the feet.
I’m splitting my exposure between Rebecki’s +260 moneyline and his point spread prop, but the latter is a much safer pick and still comes with some plus money attached.
The Pick: Mateusz Rebecki +3.5 point spread (+110 at DraftKings)
Sean Zerillo: Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan
Senior Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:25 p.m. ET
I'll continue to find ways to bet against the undefeated Shara Magomedov, whose point-fighting, kick-oriented skill set doesn't match the Bond villain hype or aesthetic.
Magomedov has a two-inch reach advantage in this matchup. Still, Armen Petrosyan has much better hands and has proven to be an educated and technical distance striker (+3.4 differential per minute) against high competition. He's also slightly taller and has longer legs, assisting his kicking game.
Petrosyan has mostly faced grapplers in the UFC. In his lone fight against a fellow kickboxer – Christian Leroy Duncan – Petrosyan won the distance striking (77-58) but also initiated the wrestling (landed one of two takedown attempts, denied all three from Duncan, and spent 3:21 in control positions).
I'd expect Petrosyan to keep the striking extremely competitive against Shara, but he retains all of the grappling upside in this matchup, too. Shara has been taken down six times in his three UFC fights – three each by Bruno Silva and Michael Oleksiejzuk, a pair of power strikers with limited cardio.
I projected Petrosyan as a +122 underdog; bet his pre-fight moneyline at +130 or better. Take his point spread (+3.5 points) to -200; I'd be stunned if Shara shut him down for 15 minutes.
I view Shara as the more durable of the two fighters, but Petrosyan might also offer better cardio in a high-paced fight; I'd bet Armen live at a better number after Round 1 – especially if he hasn't grappled to that point.
Lastly, consider betting Petrosyan to win by decision (projected +196, listed +270 at BetRivers)
The Pick: Armen Petrosyan (+155 at DraftKings)
Dann Stupp: Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:25 p.m. ET
As a fight fan with at least a tiny bit of empathy, I was a bit bummed when the UFC first decided to make five-round non-title fights a regular occurrence in the promotion. After all, the assignments came with no extra compensation for the fighters – despite the extra two rounds of work and the near-guarantee that they'd be facing fellow killers in these showcase fights.
And let me tell you, by the time the UFC 308 co-main event of Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev concludes on Saturday afternoon, I have a feeling these two contenders are going to give us our money's worth – and then some.
Ex-champ Whittaker is a very live underdog against Chimaev, and like my colleague Dan Tom, I'll take a bet on the moneyline. However, I think there's a sharper way to play this bout – or even double dip. Regardless, my favorite pick for this fight is the Over 2.5 rounds at -110 odds.
First of all, I'm not sure most fight fans even realize this non-title co-headliner is scheduled for five rounds. Both fighters are going to be encouraged to pace themselves, which works in our favor for the over.
Still, I expect Chimaev to give us some dicey moments early, but Whittaker is equipped to handle it and then pull away the longer the fight wears on. But I think we've got at least a 60% shot (implied odds of -150) of this fight hitting the midway mark.
Yet, we're getting essentially coin-flip odds (-110) on the fight reaching 2.5 rounds.
I think Whittaker can survive the early storm, and by betting Over 2.5 rounds, we're also insured against the possibility of Chimaev getting a friendly decision with the UAE judges.
Whittaker is live no doubt. But the Over 2.5 is a bit livelier in my eyes.
The Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (-110 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:55 p.m. ET
With the Ilia Topuria (-278) vs. Max Holloway (+225) main event at UFC 308, the featherweight belt is on the line. Instead of looking at a winner, I am targeting the duration of this fight.
At +150, I believe it is worth taking a shot on this fight to require all five rounds to determine a champion. Let's do the easy part of this equation first: challenger Max Holloway.
You can't knock him out. He possesses perhaps the greatest chin in the history of the sport, and it simply doesn't have an off button.
The only time Holloway has lost inside the distance across 33 professional bouts is by submission to Dustin Poirier. That was more than a decade ago, and while Topuria possesses an underrated grappling game, this fight is almost certainly going to take place on the feet across the 25 minutes.
Now, what if Holloway upsets Topuria? That is absolutely a possibility, but it would most likely come from volume over the five rounds.
Topuria has never lost, and I would be shocked if the first time he does so comes inside the distance. He went the distance in a five-round fight against Josh Emmett, who hits as hard as anyone at 145 pounds (just ask Bryce Mitchell).
I think we get an instant classic on Saturday afternoon, and regardless of who comes out on top, I don't think it is likely that either fighter gets taken out early.
The Pick: Fight goes to decision (+150 at Betway)
