Check out some early UFC 309 picks to see which fighters are over or undervalued heading into the Saturday, November 16 event.
The UFC makes their annual November trip to Madison Square Garden this week, for a heavyweight title fight between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. The Prelims stream on ESPN+ beginning at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT), with the main card available on ESPN+ Pay Per View starting at 10 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: A market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 309 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 309 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Jon Jones (-675) vs. Stipe Miocic (+490)
The UFC is doing their best to sell this as a competitive fight, but it's not the easiest case to make. Originally booked for this event last year, the delay in making it happen only makes Miocic's chances longer.
The 42 year-old fireman hasn't fought in more than three and a half years. The last time we saw him he was losing his heavyweight title on a vicious knockout from Francis Ngannou.
While the 37 year old Jones is almost certainly past his prime, he's still five years younger and leagues more athletic than even the best version of Miocic we've seen. He's also arguably the best MMA fighter of all time, which probably helps here.
I'm not laying the -675, but it's hard to make a case for Miocic either. Keep an eye out for my full betting preview of this card later in the week where I'll mine for a playable line on "Bones."
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Marcus McGhee (-135) vs. Jonathan Martinez (+114)
I'm still not sold on Marcus McGhee. The Detroit native got a somewhat late start to his UFC career, debuting in the promotion last January just shy of his 33rd birthday.
Now 34, he's looked great in his UFC tenure. He has a 3-0 record in the Octagon with three stoppages, each one earning him a performance of the night bonus. However, his quality of competition is extremely lacking.
His three opponents have gone a combined 3-9 in the UFC, making this a huge step up against Jonathan Martinez. "Dragon" is 10-4 in the promotion, and had a six-fight winning streak snapped by Jose Aldo.
Despite his far greater experience, Martinez is also four years younger. This is a nice bounce back spot for the ranked bantamweight, and I love getting him at plus-money. Grab the +115 line at Caesars before the favorite flips.
Verdict: Jonathan Martinez Undervalued
Mick Gall (-125) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+105)
Mickey Gall made his UFC debut nearly a decade ago with a 1-0 pro record. He was part of the search to find an appropriate (i.e. beatable) opponent for pro wrestler C.M. Punk, and he earned his shot against Punk by defeating photographer-turned-fighter Mike Jackson (no relation).
It's been largely downhill since then for Gall. He has just one win in his last five fights, and it came against a fighter who went 0-3 for the promotion before being released.
Yet he's a slight favorite against Brahimaj, a once-promising prospect who has his career derailed by a significant neck injury. Brahimaj was unsuccessful in his return from more than two years off against Themba Gorimbo earlier this year — but this is a much easier matchup.
I'm also generally looking to buy low on fighters in their second bout back from a long layoff. Typically they're undervalued by the market due to their previous performance, but theoretically have knocked off some of the ring rust.
The line seems to be going against Brahimaj for some reason so we can wait for a better line, but I'd gladly take any number with a + sign on it.
Verdict: Ramiz Brahimaj Undervalued
Oban Elliot (-218) vs. Bassil Hafez (+180)
Bassil Hafez's 9-4-1 pro record isn't particularly impressive on the surface. Dig a little deeper, though, and you'll see he's fought tough competition every step of the way.
Prior to getting the call to the UFC, Hafez fought undefeated prospects, regional title holders, and future UFC fighter Jeremiah Wells. His four losses are all by decision, with a whopping three of those decisions being split.
That includes his UFC debut, which he took on short notice against top-five welterweight Jack Della Maddalena. Hafez gave JDM everything he could handle, before understandably gassing down the stretch and dropping a close decision.
Elliot is more impressive on paper, with a 2-0 UFC record plus a Contender Series win. However, both UFC victories were relatively unimpressive decisions, and he needed a majority decision on the Contender Series.
Plus, Elliot was finished in both of his career losses. The only thing stopping me from betting a full unit here is a desire to play Hafez by finish later in the week, but I'm risking a half unit on his +180 moneyline. DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars all have identical lines.
Verdict: Bassil Hafez Undervalued
