UFC 309 Picks, Predictions, Odds for Every Fight Tonight (Saturday, November 16)

Check my UFC 309 picks and odds with betting lines for all 13 fights tonight for UFC 309, headlined by Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic from Madison Square Garden in New York City.

Here's how to watch UFC 309: The eight-fight prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+. The 5-fight main card then starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view (PPV cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 309 odds, this event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 309 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC 309 odds below as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 309 with our DraftKings promo code.

Billy Ward's UFC 309 Picks, Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

• Eduarda Mouras (+111, 1u) at Caesars/FanDuel
• Bassil Hafez +235 (0.5u Caesars)
• Jim Miller +150 (0.5u DraftKings)
• Ramiz Brahimaj +120 (1u DraftKings)
• Diniz +124 (1u DraftKings)
• Joanathan Martinez +124 (0.5u DraftKings)

Prop Bets and Totals

• Miller-Jackson Under 2.5 Rounds +124 (0.5u DraftKings)
• Wediman-Anders Point to be Deducted +2000 (0.1u DraftKings)
• Karine Silva -3.5 -115 (0.575u)
• Paul Craig Submission +1300 (0.1u BetRivers)
• Jones via T/KO +135 (FanDuel 0.5u)
• Jones/Miocic Point To Be Deducted +2000 (DraftKings 0.1u)

Live Bets

• Charles Oliveria After Round 1/2
• Jonathan Martinez After Round 1

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura

The opening bout of UFC 209 features what should be a fairly close fight between Eduarda Moura and Veronica Hardy.

Moura is 1-1 in the UFC, with a second-round ground-and-pound finish in her debut followed by a split decision loss to Denise Gomes in her sophomore appearance. I have a fairly high opinion of Gomes, and Moura was able to land five takedowns in the fight but was picked apart on the feet. The judges probably got that one right, but it could've gone either way and not been egregious.

Moura is also 0-2 against the UFC weigh-in scales, missing weight in both of her promotional appearances. That's led to a move up to flyweight this time around. I'm generally in favor of that for fighters, especially those like Moura who at age 30 were likely cutting more and more weight to make her previous division.

The matchup with Hardy is reminiscent of that against Gomes. Hardy is slightly bigger than Gomes but with a similar striking game at range. Both women prefer to keep things standing, with their losses typically coming against fighters who can take them down.

Despite coming up in weight for this one Moura should still be the bigger fighter, and won't have the extreme speed disadvantage against Hardy that she did against Gomes. If she's able to get takedowns she'll win rounds clearly, while the ceiling for Hardy is edging out rounds on the feet with volume.

I'll take the plus money on Moura given the circumstances, with the line as high as +122 at FanDuel and Caesars. This one could come down to a coin-flip decision, but I like the side of the coin that pays out more.

I talked about this one with John LanFranca in our UFC 309 podcast episode this week.

Bets

• Eduarda Mouras (+122, 1u) at Caesars/FanDuel

Oban Elliot vs. Bassil Hafez

This fight was one of my early week bets from my Luck Ratings, in which I laid one-half unit on Haffez at +180.

Surprisingly, the line has gone the other way, with Elliot's moneyline swelling to -285. This is a somewhat tough stylistic matchup for Elliot, who was taken down multiple times by Val Woodburn and once by Preston Parsons but is now facing a somewhat tougher grappler in Hafez.

Elliot is the better technical striker in the matchup but lacks meaningful power, with just two knockouts among his 12 career wins. Both came via ground and pound against opponents with losing pro records.

Hafez is the better overall grappler, scoring three takedowns over top-five welterweight Jack Della Maddalena and nearly finishing JDM on the ground before gassing out during their short-notice fight. His cardio looked much better in his sophomore UFC appearance against Mickey Gall, in which he won all three rounds.

This fight is lined as fairly likely to go to the judges, which automatically makes the underdog more appealing. That's especially the case since the rounds won by Hafez should be pretty clear, while Elliot's low-power striking might be less so.

If you haven't already bet Hafez, his +235 moneyline at Caesars is the bet to make. If, like me, you already have some moneyline exposure, I'll be betting to win half a unit on Hafez's +3.5 point spread at -125. As long as he wins one round that bet hits, and it works as a hedge of sorts against the moneyline bet earlier in the week.

Bets

• Bassil Hafez +235 (.5u) Caesars
• Hafez +3.5 -125 (.625u) DraftKings

Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

I touched on this fight in my Luck Ratings piece as well, this time choosing to hold off in hopes of a better line on Brahimaj.

While the line hasn't moved a ton, that turned out to be the right decision. Brahmaj is now as high as +120 after opening around +105.

For Mickey Gall, this is a stylistically similar matchup as his last fight against Bassil Hafez. Brahimaj is a better submission grappler and worse wrestler than Hafez, but the overall dynamics are fairly similar.

Both men have fairly lackluster striking, with both getting outstruck in each of their last five UFC fights. Somebody has to break that trend here, and I'm slightly more confident it will be Brahimaj. Gall has been in the UFC more than eight years at this point and would've figured out his striking by now if he was ever going to.

On the other hand, Brahimaj made his promotional debut in 2020, but also missed two years due to a serious neck injury that required surgery. This will be his second fight back since returning, making this a solid buy-low spot now that the ring rust is knocked off.

I like Brahimaj straight up at +120, but I'd make him a slight favorite so the bet is good to even money.

Bets

• Ramiz Brahimaj +120 (1u) DraftKings

Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz

Jhonata Diniz was booked in a fun striker vs. striker matchup a couple of weeks ago against Derrick Lewis, but an illness from Lewis caused the fight to be scrapped.

Now Diniz got moved to UFC 309 — where he faces an entirely different matchup against BJJ black belt Marcin Tybura. It's a short-notice matchup for Tybura but given the contrasting styles for Diniz, both men are facing similar challenges here.

Diniz is a former kickboxing champion at both light heavyweight and heavyweight but has fought exclusively as a heavyweight in MMA. He also weighed in at 255 lbs, near the 265 lbs limit, so he's not undersized by any stretch. He's got an inch or so of height and reach on Tybura.

After consecutive knockouts on the Contender Series and against Austen Lane, Diniz won a fairly lackluster decision over Karl Williams in August.

Diniz is fairly patient against fighters who pose a grappling threat and has shown solid defense on the ground.  Note that I said "defense" and not "escapes." Diniz finished the first round on his back against Austen Lane, before finishing him in the second with his best weapon, a short left hook.

Tybura is firmly in "just a guy" territory at heavyweight but has plenty of finishing ability on the ground. He's not the most explosive wrestler, though, and could struggle to get the athletic Diniz to the ground.

I'm tempted to take the over 1.5 line here due to Diniz's patience, but I like the price on Diniz's moneyline instead. The larger PPV cage should help the longer striker here as well.

Bets

• Diniz +124 (1u) DraftKings

Roberto Romero vs. David Onama

This one came together in the middle of fight week, with Roberto Romero stepping in to make his UFC debut on short notice.

He's 8-3-1 as a pro fighter and brings a one-fight winning "streak" into the matchup, so not exactly a top prospect. Combined with the circumstances of the fight, it's easy to see why he's a massive underdog.

There are no prop lines available yet thanks to the late addition of this fight, and I'm not interested in laying -900 on Onama, so this one's a pass for me.

Bets

• Pass

Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson

For a full breakdown of this fight, check out my full betting preview.

It's always tricky to handicap fights where both participants are cardio liabilities. It's hard to predict who gasses first, and totals are tricky as well. If both fighters gas it's harder for finishes to happen, but if one has a slightly deeper gas tank they can put their opponent away.

I have some optimism that the 155-pound version of Jackson has a bit more to give down the stretch than he did at 145 pounds. He was always big for featherweight at 5'11", and presumably had a fairly tough weight cut.

On the other hand, Miller certainly has the early finishing upside here. Power is the last thing to go, and it's hard to trust Jackson's chin at a higher weight class.

Therefore, I'm splitting my exposure between two picks: Jim Miller's moneyline at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds at +124, both at DraftKings. We'll turn a slight profit if either bet hits, but we can obviously hit both with a Miller finish. With both picks coming at plus money, half a unit on each limits our total exposure to one unit.

Bets

• Jim Miller +150 (.5u)
• Under 2.5 +110 (.5u)

Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders

Money has come in fairly heavily on the former champion Chris Weidman, moving his line from +120 early in the week to essentially a pick'em price on Friday. He hasn't looked great since returning from the broken leg he suffered in 2021, with a lackluster decision loss to Brad Tavares followed by a controversial win over Bruno Silva.

While it went down as a TKO, Weidman dropped Silva with a vicious eye poke, the second one he landed in the fight. That was with the "new" UFC gloves that the promotion tried out this summer in order to limit eye pokes.

They announced this week that they're switching back to the standard UFC gloves, which allow the fingers to open more easily. Just in time for two of the sport's more notable eye pokers — who also happen to be New York natives — to fight on the card (the other being Jon Jones.)

I don't have a ton of interest in this fight but given the circumstances, I'm sprinkling a tenth of a unit on a point to be deducted at +2000, available on DraftKings. We'll revisit that prop later, but that's my only action on what's likely to be a fairly low-paced middleweight slog.

Bets

• Point to be Deducted +2000 (.1u)

Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee

Another pick from my Luck Ratings, I was (and am) surprised to see Martinez as the underdog in this matchup.

He had a six-fight winning streak (that included wins over Adrian Yanez and Said Nurmagomedov) snapped in his last appearance, a decision loss to Jose Aldo. Aldo is one of the two or three best featherweights of all time, so I'm not holding that one against Martinez.

Martinez gets a step back down this time in Marcus McGhee, who's 3-0 in the UFC and hasn't seen a third round but has fought much softer competition than Martinez. Martinez is also younger by four years despite having more than twice as many fights as McGhee.

McGhee might really be that good, but I'm willing to bet one-half unit that he fails his first big step up against a ranked fighter. I'll take Martinez at +124 for half of a unit, and look to add more following the first round if the line swells even more. Martinez has solid cardio and trains in Colorado, while McGhee has never seen an MMA fight hit 11 minutes.

Bets

• Joanathan Martinez +124 (.5u) | Live After Round 1

Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Lllontop

Action Network contributor John LanFranca handled this breakdown this week. Here's what he ended up on:

"It’s never an easy task to find a betting angle with good value on such a large favorite, but considering Llontop has never been knocked out, this may be the last chance to play Ruffy by knockout at a reasonable price against a fighter he clearly out-classes.

This is unlikely to be the 1st-round KO that steals the show, but the accuracy, speed, and timing of Mauricio Ruffy will be too much for his opponent Saturday night. Mauricio Ruffy by T/KO at -140. "

That's certainly by far the most likely method of victory from Ruffy, who has knockouts in all 10 of his pro victories. With that said, Llontop is tough and a solid technical striker in his own right. I'd want plus-money if taking that pick myself, so it's going to be a pass from me. I'd consider a small bet on Llontop if the line moves even farther here.

Bets

• Pass

Karine Silva vs. Viviane Araujo

Action Network contributor Tony Sartori broke why he's taking Silva by decision in his betting preview:

"Araujo should theoretically serve as the perfect opponent for Silva to jump into the top 10. Araujo is a capable veteran, but she is on the back end of her career and has dropped three of his past four fights.

All three of those losses came by decision. In fact, the judges' input has been needed in each of her past 10 bouts, a trend that dates back to 2019.

She possesses a good chin and has never tapped across 18 professional bouts, which is another reason why Silva's decision prop is only returning +110. However, I still think that number is too long.

Araujo has stuffed just 50% of her opponents' takedown attempts over her past five fights, which is a recipe for disaster against someone of Silva's grappling ability. Once on the mat, I trust Araujo to fight off submission attempts, but it will be tough to win rounds in that position, which is why I believe this fight will play out similarly to Silva's latest win over Ariane da Silva."

That logic makes a ton of sense to me, with both Silva's moneyline odds and the odds of a decision heavily juiced. With that said, I prefer her -3.5 "point spread" at -115 on DraftKings. It covers a dominant decision win but also pays off if Silva picks up another stoppage like she's done in three of her four UFC appearances to date.

While Araujo hasn't been finished in any of her five UFC losses, she takes a lot of damage and hasn't fought many women with Silva's power. Plus, she turns 38 later this month, so her durability could begin to be an issue. I'm willing to pay the extra 25 cents of juice for what I view as a considerably more likely outcome.

Bets

• Karine Silva -3.5 -115 (.575u)

Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

LanFranca also handled this fight this week, settling on a pair of long shots.

"Nickal taking Craig down will present challenges he has yet to face in his young UFC career. Craig’s chances of finishing the fight decrease exponentially the more the fight is played out as a striking affair, as the most likely path to victory involves catching the inexperienced Nickal in a submission off of his back.

This line is much too wide in favor of a fighter as unproven as Nickal, and if he is to prove me wrong and control Craig with ease, it is still no certainty he finds a finish of his own nearly as easily as he has previously inside the octagon.

Thus, I will be splitting my bet into two half-unit plays: Bo Nickal by points +800 (Fanduel) 0.5 unit and Paul Craig's moneyline +750 (Caesars) 0.5 unit."

While I like that look from John, I'm going a bit further personally. If Craig is to win this fight, it will almost certainly be via submission. Nickal is the rare opponent who just might engage with him on the ground, where Craig's only advantage is. Craig to win via submission is +1300 at BetRivers, where I'll be playing it for one-tenth of a unit.

Bets

• Paul Craig Submission +1300 (.1u)

Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

Tony Sartori stepped in to handle the co-main event this week, with his full betting preview available here. Here's the conclusion he came to.

"So, what has happened since that Saturday evening in May 2021? Well, nothing good for Chandler, which is why these odds are much further apart than they were three years ago.

Let alone the fact that he is 1-2 over his past three fights, Chandler has dealt with the out-of-octagon experience that is Conor McGregor. Those two coached TUF, were scheduled to fight, and then had on-and-off-again "negotiations" for two years.

I put negotiations in quotes because a negotiation requires two parties, and I'm not sure McGregor was too present during this time. Point being, while Chandler was waiting for the Notorious to figure it out, the 38-year-old missed two years of octagon time, which is almost always a death sentence in this sport, unless you are Jon Jones.

Meanwhile, since his fight against Chandler, Oliveira has gone 3-2 with wins over the two guys who beat Chandler as well as Beneil Dariush. His two losses came against Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, two guys who will battle for the 155-pound title shortly (rumored for UFC 311 in January).

Not only did Oliveira beat Chandler the last time out, but everything since then would only suggest a repeat of history. However, I have no interest in laying -258 in him to do so, which is why I am going to go with his submission prop at +150.

The only reason this line isn't closer to even odds is because Oliveira won by TKO in the first meeting. However, this is still the greatest submission artist in the history of the UFC.

And, if Poirier can submit Chandler, then so can Oliveira."

Tony's taking Oliveira to pick up a submission at +150 odds at FanDuel. Personally, I want a little better price if I'm taking a method-of-finish bet on a multi-dimensional fighter like Oliveira so I'll be passing. If I had to bet this one I'd take the submission prop too.

I will, however, be keeping an eye on the live market. If Chandler comes out hot and pushes the moneyline price on Oliveira down, I'll be looking to jump in on the former lightweight champ after Round 1.

Bets

• Oliveira Live

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

I wrote up the full betting preview for the UFC 309 main event this week. Here's how I'm playing it.

This feels like a borderline squash match for Jones, who's still near the prime age for a heavyweight MMA fighter. While I have no interest in laying more than -600 on his moneyline, there are other ways to play it.

My two favorite bets are Jones by T/KO at +135 and Jones in the first three rounds at -145, both on FanDuel. Given Miocic's bad knockout loss in his last fight, I'm going with the former for half of a unit. Miocic has also never been submitted, so the knockout prop feels like a solid line relative to Jones by finish at +250.

Just for fun, I'm also sprinkling one-tenth of a unit on a point to be deducted in this fight at +2000 on DraftKings. Jones will almost certainly land an eye poke, so we're betting on a ref to actually call it. It's unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

Bets

• Jones via T/KO (+135 Fanduel .5u)
• Point To Be Deducted (+2000 DraftKings .1u)