Check out our UFC picks and our favorite long-shot UFC 309 props for Saturday, November 16.
UFC 309 marks the UFC's annual November trip to Madison Square Garden in New York City. The prelims stream on ESPN+ beginning at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ PPV starting at 10 p.m. ET.
With 13 fights on the card, UFC 309 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found four picks.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC 309 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 309 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC 309 Prop Picks – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Tony Sartori: Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:15 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC 309 prelims kick off with a flyweight bout between unranked contenders Veronica Hardy (-143) and Eduarda Moura (+115). The steam is slightly on Moura, who opened as a +125 underdog and has since been bet down to her current price.
I agree with the steam, but I don't agree with the 11.11% implied probability of her +800 odds to win by submission. Speaking of 8/1, this line should almost be considered an automatic bet from a pure market perspective.
BetRivers is still hanging this price at the time of writing, while every other book has Moura by submission between +450 and +550, which is around a three-dollar differential in payout. That's a lot of value, let alone the fact that this is Moura's most likely path to victory if she is to win inside the distance.
She enters this bout in great form, winning nine of her past 10 fights, with five of those nine wins coming by submission. Moura has been involved in BJJ tournaments outside of the UFC and is a credentialed grappler.
Meanwhile, Hardy is submittable, given that she tapped to Gillian Robertson's rear naked choke. At the end of the day, I just want the value of the 8/1 number, which is mispriced on a certainly plausible outcome.
I also don't trust Hardy's mere 60% takedown defense rate, which further opens the door for Moura to win by submission given how often she shoots for takedowns.
The Pick: Eduarda Moura by Submission (+800 at BetRivers)
John LanFranca: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
Michael Chandler is coming off a two-year absence from the octagon after waiting for the Conor McGregor fight to materialize. Instead of fighting one of the division’s premier strikers, he now has to take on the lightweight division’s most dangerous submission artist in Charles Oliveira, which is a rematch from their 2021 title tilt.
Chandler has brought an exciting style to the UFC since making his way to the organization. A case can be made that he has detoured around his most likely paths to victory, and instead opted to fight in a manner that would entertain the fans, and thus, allow him more opportunities to be involved in headline-type fights against the UFC’s best. This is a long way of saying that I am expecting more of the same from Chandler as he looks to avenge his 2021 loss to Oliveira.
If I thought Chandler would take a different approach, implementing more patient tactics, I would be looking to play his moneyline. However, I see him once again looking for the finish from the opening bell.
Considering the odds of Oliveira getting a hold of Chandler and out-wrestling him early in the fight are rather low, that means both men will be unleashing potential fight-ending strikes in Round 1 at kickboxing range.
The first fight between the two was a wild back-and-forth affair that showcased Oliveira’s well-rounded skills — yet it also proved his durability is less than ideal for a -265 fighter.
The rematch on Saturday night is -190 to end within the first two rounds (65.5% implied odds). This prop is amazing value for somebody with the explosive power of Chandler, as he is more than capable of being the one to get the stoppage this time around.
The Pick: Michael Chandler by KO/TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 +650 (FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
Staff Writer at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:15 a.m. ET
Jon Jones is the most prolific eye poker in the history of the UFC. Former opponent Dominik Reyes said it was the best "weapon" in Jones' arsenal in a recent interview, and it's been a frequent complaint of other past opponents.
Curiously, the UFC also announced this week that they were abandoning the new UFC glove design that was ostensibly built to reduce eye pokes. The timing of the shift was curious to say the least, considering Jones is fighting in the main event this week.
While we can't bet directly on a fighter to land an eye poke, we can bet on a point to be deducted at +2000 on DraftKings. For the bet to hit we need both the foul to occur and the ref to actually penalize it, but that's why we're getting 20-1 odds on the prop.
I'm also taking the same prop in Weidman-Anders, with Weidman also known for his frequent eye poking. They'll both be 0.1 unit bets for me, with a parlay of the two for +44000 odds at .05 units just for fun.
The Pick: Point to be Deducted +2000 (DraftKings)
