UFC 310 Odds, Predictions, Breakdown, Preview for All 14 Fights on Saturday, December 7

Check out the latest UFC 310 odds and betting lines with my predictions for all 14 fights for Saturday afternoon's pay-per-view in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Below, I look at the latest UFC 310 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card.

Here's how to watch UFC 310 today: The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT), and then the main card is on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET (PPV cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 310 odds, today's event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 310 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC 310 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 310 with our DraftKings promo code.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 310 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 14 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC 310 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside the distance.

UFC 310 Odds

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Lukasz Brzeski

Crowdsourced Projections: Kennedy Ncechukwu (80.5%)

Moving to Heavyweight seems like a natural fit for Kennedy Nzechukwu – who maintains a reach edge (5" over Brzeski) with an enhanced speed and grappling advantage over lower-level fighters within the division.

Brzeski is 1-3 in the promotion after earning a contract as a substantial favorite on the contender series. He's not a particularly big (235 pounds) or powerful Heavyweight, and given the discrepancy in athleticism, it isn't easy to see him winning consistent minutes against Kennedy. Brzeski has posted competitive distance striking numbers (+2.4 per minute), but his durability has cost him in otherwise competitive fights.

Nzechukwu doesn't have a great chin – and I'd worry about his durability against Heavyweights with considerable power – but Brzeski doesn't have the skill set to endanger Kennedy anywhere and seems unlikely to win a volume-based decision against a quicker and longer striker.

Ultimately, I don't project value on this fight regarding the moneyline, total, or winning method props. I'd lean toward an attritional finish for Nzechukwu, but his odds to win in Round 2 (+350) and Round 3 (+600) aren't moderately enticing.

Bets

• Pass

Clay Guida vs. Chase Hooper

Crowdsourced Projections: Chase Hooper (93.2%)

Clay Guida turns 43 years old this weekend, and his matchup with 25-year-old Chase Hooper will feature the most significant age gap (17 years, 9 months) in the UFC's modern era (28-year-old Royce Gracie defeated 51-year-old Ron van Clief at UFC 4).

When there is at least a decade in age between MMA opponents, the younger fighter has won 72.3% of the time at average odds of -138 (58.1% implied); more than 13% above expectation.

Guida has remained competitive in his forties, but Hooper has been on an upward trajectory since moving to lightweight. He's gained muscle and will continue to add strength as he enters his physical prime. A smaller version of Hooper submitted Guida via calf slicer at Fury Pro Grappling in December 2022.

Guida has oft been caught in submissions throughout his MMA career (11 of 24 losses). Hooper is the much more advanced submission grappler, even though Guida is the better pure wrestler (he has won 42% of combined takedown attempts vs. 33.3% for Hooper). Still, Hooper is the bigger, stronger, and quicker athlete—and he could potentially bully his way to the top position against an aging Guida.

Hooper is the more efficient distance striker (career +0.8 to -1.2 differential per minute) and an increasingly powerful puncher. His primary weaknesses are his terrible striking defense (36%) and lack of head movement, but Guida hadn't knocked out an opponent with punches since 2008 (Hooper was nine years old at the time).

I project value on the Unders or the fight ending inside the distance (projected -265, listed -240), with correlated value on Hooper inside the distance (projected -232, listed -200) or by a potential positional KO/TKO (projected +615, listed +750) on round-robin tickets. 

The price discrepancy between Under 2.5 Rounds (-175) and Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-240) is particularly wide.

Bets

• Under 1.5 Rounds (+125, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +110
• Under 2.5 Rounds (-175, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -185

Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin

Crowdsourced Projections: Michael Chiesa (51.4%)

The line has flipped on this contest as Michael Chiesa has moved from a +130 underdog (43.5% implied) at open to as high as -130 (56.5%) as of writing.

While Max Griffin is the more well-rounded fighter, Chiesa is the better offensive grappler and has faced more challenging opponents in his UFC career (12-7 record vs. 8-8 for Griffin).

Griffin has won a higher percentage of takedown attempts in the UFC (55.2% landed offensively and defended combined vs. 54.1% for Chiesa). Still, Chiesa is the more proactive offensive wrestler (5.9 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, compared to 1.7 for Griffin) and much likelier to hold dominant control positions (68% vs. 53% control rate of ground/clinch time)

Moreover, Chiesa is a far greater submission threat than Griffin, who seemingly has the damage and knockout upside on the feet if he can stay upright in this fight.

Griffin tends to hurt opponents at some point in the fight but often fails to close the show (three KO/TKO wins, but his eight UFC knockdowns have only directly led to one knockout win), and Chiesa has never been finished with strikes.

Griffin is starting to come into range pre-fight at +110; however, I'd potentially live bet Chiesa at better odds after Round 1. Griffin is dangerous early, and I'd expect Chiesa's wrestling and cardio advantages to prove more determinative in a more prolonged fight.

Bets

• Michael Chiesa Live after Round 1

Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van

Crowdsourced Projections: Joshua Van (56.1%)

Joshua Van is a decade younger than Cody Durden – and as I mentioned in the Guida-Hooper breakdown, the younger fighter has won 72.3% of those decade-plus age-gap fights at average odds of -138 (58.1% implied), more than 13% above expectation.

Durden typically starts hot before fading as his fights extend. He's a proactive offensive wrestler (attempts 6.5 takedowns per five minutes at a distance; 51% accuracy) with the grappling upside against Van plus money, and his best chance of winning any round or finishing the fight will come early.

Moreover, Van is typically a slow starter who will attempt to resist Durden's grappling rather than prioritize damage early before adding body combinations to slow down his older opponent.

Durden should land early takedowns and potentially take the lead, but I'd expect Van—who continues to improve his spotty defensive grappling—to resist those shots more readily the longer the fight goes on.

On the pre-fight moneyline, I'd bet Durden (projected +128, listed +140) or pass and look to target Van Live after Round 1. I also project a slight edge on the distance prop (projected +105, listed +116). Still, I would prefer to target late-finishing props for Van – given the typical cardio expenditure for both fighters '

Structure a pre-fight wager on Van to win in Round 2 (+600) or Round 3 (+1000) while waiting for a better moneyline price live.

I'd potentially bet Van during round 1 (some books keep live lines up throughout rounds) after Durden consolidates a takedown but before Van scrambles back to his feet, if not after the round, too.

Bets

• Joshua Van wins in Round 2 (+600, 0.15u) at DraftKings; bet to +500
• Joshua Van wins in Round 3 (+1000, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +900
• Joshua Van Live during or after Round 1

Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders

Crowdsourced Projections: Chris Weidman (53.8%)

This fight was re-booked from the UFC 309 card after Anders scratched on fight day with a stomach issue, displacing the fight from Weidman's backyard (and potential hometown cooking) in New York City while also moving the matchup up to a 195-pound catchweight, which would seemingly help Anders' takedown defense and gas tank more than anything.

Weidman has only landed one of 12 takedown attempts since returning from injury (46% prior), and Anders (denied 35 of 44 career attempts) has solid first-layer takedown defense. If Weidman can get Anders to the mat, it should be the round in his favor; Weidman has an excellent top game, and the bulk Anders has to prevent him from getting grounded also limits his ability to escape.

Weidman is the more efficient striker (+1.6 strike differential per minute vs. Anders) than the low-volume but much more powerful Anders – who can swing the outcome of this fight with a couple of big punches. Anders has the durability and physicality edge, and he should land the more damaging blows when both exchange in the pocket.

At middleweight, I'd expect Weidman to have a significant cardio advantage. Still, Anders may look quicker and sustain his form longer on Saturday without cutting the additional weight. Moreover, he's addressed substance abuse issues and has been sober for more than a year.

Still, his performance against Jamie Pickett in March was concerning – physically, Anders looked like a shell of his former self.

I'd consider betting Weidman pre-fight (projected -116) small at -110 or better. I'll wait until fight day to see if he moves back towards even money.

In the prop market, I project value on Weidman by decision (projected +160, listed +180) or Anders by KO/TKO (projected +441, listed +480).

Bets

• Chris Weidman (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -110

Randy Brown vs. Bryan Battle

Crowdsourced Projections: Bryan Battle (61.8%)

Bryan Battle, who won The Ultimate Fighter at Middleweight, came in four pounds heavy for his scheduled Welterweight tilt with Randy Brown on Friday and looked drained on the scales. Battle was fined, and the fight will continue at a catchweight, but Battle may have as much as a 15-20 pound weight advantage by the time the cage doors close on Saturday.

That weight advantage should negate whatever Battle loses in cardio or durability; fighters who miss weight win 44% of the time, at average odds of +123 (45% implied) – right in line with expectation. The fighter who misses weight often becomes undervalued if the line moves against them.

Battle is typically aggressive and has considerable power for the division, but he has terrible striking defense (43%) and will need to conserve his energy following the weight miss.

Randy Brown will happily oblige an outside kickboxing match. Brown is the taller (2") and longer (1") fighter who glides comfortably behind his range weapons. Moreover, Brown is also the superior technical grappler, although Battle's weight advantage should help to neutralize and limit wrestling exchanges.

Brown's main issue is his chin. He defends strikes awkwardly (54%) by relying on footwork rather than moving his head, and he tends to get hurt by all his opponents by making a mistake (which is a statistical likelihood) in his movement patterns.

If Brown makes a mistake early, a fully energized Battle can connect and close the show (like the Jack Della Maddalena fight for Brown). However, if Brown can settle the pace into a moderate-tempo, distance kickboxing match—where he potentially mixes in the grappling as Battle pressures—he may look like a hindsight favorite against an opponent who potentially wilts from his weight miss.

I show value on Brown's decision prop (projected +376, listed +525), with correlated value on the fight to reach a decision (projected +105, listed +120).

While you could play Brown's point spread (+3.5, -105), I typically only take that when the underdog has as much or more finishing equity, which is not the case in this fight. I prefer Brown in the decision-only market (+175 at BallyBet); I'd make that line around -133.

Consider live betting Brown after Round 1 if he's trailing or after Round 2 if the fight appears tied.

His moneyline did move in following Battle's weight miss; I'd want at least +170 to fire on Brown and will wait to see if the market returns to range on fight day.

Bets

• Randy Brown (+175, 0.25u) at BetMGM; bet to +170
• Randy Brown wins by Decision (+500, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +400
• Randy Brown Live after Round 1 or Round 2

Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling

Crowdsourced Projections: Movsar Evloev (63.3%)

This fight—with title implications—should be on the PPV main card but is instead buried on the prelims because of the proactive wrestling styles of both Featherweight contenders.

The undefeated Evloev attempts 6.1 takedowns per five minutes at distance (46% accuracy), even higher than former Bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling (5.6, 28%), whose only loss since 2017 came in a fight he was leading.

Sterling is an excellent round winner due partly to his underrated striking output (+2.5 strike differential per minute at a distance vs. +1.5 for Evloev).

"The Funkmaster" is constantly chipping away at opponents and overloading their brains with volume. He should have a better gas tank at 145 than he did at 135, and fighting three rounds instead of five allows him to push a pace closer to that of his teammate, chief training partner, and current Bantamweight champion, Merab Dvailishili. Sterling consistently edges close rounds against high-level competition by filling space with volume.

Conversely, Evloev is in many close fights and rarely separates from his opponents on the scorecards. He won a split over Nik Lentz (nearly submitted in that fight), and his unanimous wins against Enrique Barzola and Arnold Allen could have gone against him.

Evloev has superior grappling data (89% vs. 65% control rate) than Sterling, but he's also faced a far lesser slate of opponents. He's typically been in the position to grapple with his opposition offensively. Still, when opponents (Barzola, Mike Grundy) proactively wrestle Evloev, they've been able to ground him (and Grundy nearly submitted him), and Sterling is easily the best offensive wrestler that he's faced in the UFC in terms of consolidating that position or denying takedowns of his own.

Sterling is in his second fight in the division and looks to have added muscle to fill out his frame, with more time to adjust to his body for the weight class. Evloev should still have a power advantage in the striking exchanges, but Sterling could be a big underdog with technical advantages everywhere else in the matchup; don't be surprised if he wins the grappling outright.

I projected Aljo as a +172 underdog and would bet his moneyline to +180.

I also show value on Sterling's decision prop (projected +289, listed +350) to +300 and would bet his point spread (+3.5, -145) up to -150.

Alternatively, I project longshot value on Sterling by submission (projected +990, listed +1100).

Bets

• Aljamain Sterling (+200, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +180

Vincente Luque vs. Themba Gorimbo

Crowdsourced Projections: Vicente Luque (55.5%)

Vicente Luque has been a favorite or in a pick'em fight in each of his 21 UFC bouts and will enter the octagon on Saturday as a true underdog (previous high of +110) for the first time in his career.

Luque revealed a previous life-threatening issue (subdural hematoma) after his loss to Geoff Neal (Luque closed as a -16o favorite) in 2022 but returned one year later with a five-round decision over Rafael dos Anjos (closed +110) before his awkward loss to Joaquin Buckley (closed -115).

Luque was competitive in Round 1 but fell to his back after a takedown attempt midway through Round 2, seemingly accepting a ground-and-pound finish from guard. Then Luque immediately stood back up after the ref stopped the fight; it was about as awkward as it gets.

Themba Gorimbo is the more prominent athlete (2" taller, 2" reach advantage) but has a far less developed skillset. Luque has more UFC fights (21) than Gorimbo has total MMA fights (18), yet Gorimbo is only 10 months younger.

Gorimbo has been gifted winnable matchups against exploitable fighters. In his past two fights against Ramiz Brahimaj and Niko Price, he relied on volume takedowns (completed 12 of 15 attempts) and extended control (combined 19:27). He likely would have done the same to Pete Rodriguez, too, had he not scored a quick KO of his own against a boxer.

Luque doesn't have elite takedown defense (62% career), but he does have lethal submission skills—including a particularly nasty D'Arce choke—to combat opposing wrestlers. He's also the better technical striker, with much more offensive output at distance.

Luque's durability is the most significant question mark in the fight; otherwise, he's the more skilled fighter. Still, while those durability concerns seem heavily weighted within his moneyline, I feel the finishing props should emphasize the potential that his body can't compete anymore.

You can play Luque and the finish props at plus money and have a good shot of hitting one (and profiting) with the potential to cash both bets. We only lose on another control-based decision for Gorimbo.

Bet Luque to +130 (projected +125) and play the ends inside the distance prop to +100 (projected +107).

Bets

• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+120, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +110
• Vicente Luque (+140, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +130

Anthony Smith vs. Dominick Reyes 

Crowdsourced Projections: Dominick Reyes (79.8%)

After three consecutive knockout losses, following his narrow decision loss for UFC gold against Jon Jones in 2020, Dom Reyes took a long layoff (from November 2022 to June 2024) to let his brain heal before scoring a quick knockout win against Dustin Jacoby.

Reyes and Anthony Smith are only one year apart in age, but Reyes (17 pro fights) has taken considerably less damage than Smith, who will make his 24th walk to a UFC octagon and the 59th of his pro career on Saturday.

Reyes should have a speed and athleticism advantage over Smith, who has looked progressively slower and stiffer in recent performances. Smith has the grappling advantage but rarely shoots offensive takedowns (30 total in those 24 UFC fights); Reyes should deny him any opportunities (81% takedown defense) and keep this fight standing.

Both seem relatively chinny at this stage of their careers, but I project slight value on the Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) or goes to decision prop (projected +220, listed +240 at BetWay).

Additionally, depending on the book, I show value on Reyes winning a decision (projected +318, listed +420) or Smith winning by submission (projected +1135, listed +1200).

I'd rather play the Reyes prop for small stakes than take the GTD at a worse price or lay juice on an Over 1.5. Smith has only won one decision since 2016 (a split over Ryan Spann); he finishes his opponent or becomes a coinflip to survive to see the judges.

Bets

• Dominick Reyes wins by Decision (+410, 0.1u) at BetRivers; bet to +325

Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi

Crowdsourced Projections: Nate Landwehr (54.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi preview from my colleague, John Lanfranca.

This Featherweight scrap is an apt PPV main card opener; both Nate Landwehr and Doo Ho Choi are aggressive fighters with questionable durability.

Landwehr is the longer (2" reach advantage) and stronger athlete and likely has the wrestling and grappling advantage, too: Landwehr has won 24 of his 34 (70.5%) combined takedown opportunities (offense and defense combined) in the UFC, compared to 13 of 29 (44.8%) for Choi. Landwehr spent 66% of grappling time in control positions, compared to 37% for Choi.

"The Korean Superboy" might be a more refined technical striker. Still, Landwehr is likelier to press forward and land the more eye-catching shots before potentially mixing in grappling to exhaust his opponent. Landwehr ran track in college and tries to weaponize cardio against his opposition.

Live bet Landwehr after Round 1.

However, Landwehr both lives and dies through that aggression, and Choi has the technical prowess to snipe Nate the Train – who offers minimal head movement when entering the pocket.

I project value on this fight to end by finish or inside the distance (projected -233, listed -192) but may prefer Fight ends by KO (projected +102, listed +120) at plus money.

I'm picking Landwehr via KO (projected +305, listed +360) from an attritional finish in Round 2 (+850) or Round 3 (+1100).

Bets

• Nate Landwehr / Doo Ho Choi, Fight Ends inside the Distance (-192, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -220
• Nate Landwehr wins in Round 2 (+850, 0.15u) at FanDuel; bet to +500
• Nate Landwehr wins in Round 3 (+1100, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +900
• Nate Landwehr wins by KO/TKO (+340, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +325
• Nate Landwehr Live after Round 1

Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie

Crowdsourced Projections: Bryce Mitchell (85.7%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Kron Gracie vs. Bryce Mitchell preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Kron Gracie last won an MMA fight in 2019 and has only competed once in the past four years – a poor effort in a decision loss against Charles Jourdain.

The son of Rickson Gracie and nephew to three-time UFC tournament champion Royce Gracie, Kron has earned each of his five career wins by submission (one triangle and four rear-naked chokes). Yet, his submission odds (projected +1062, listed +1400) are more than double his moneyline price for Saturday.

Bryce Mitchell is the far better wrestler and the more powerful striker in this fight. Mitchell's most straightforward path to victory is to sprawl and brawl if Kron shoots or to hold Kron up against the fence for extended stretches without letting him pull guard.

Mitchell may be skittish at striking range, returning from a brutal knockout loss to Josh Emmett last December, and Kron can put out decent volume when he's willing to engage with opponents. I expect Mitchell to grapple and eventually put himself in harm's way and need to stake the smallest of pokes on Kron to pull off the upset.

I projected Kron's moneyline around +600 and would consider betting the underdog at +650 or better. It's been one-way action on Mitchell since opening closer to +380; I'd expect it to get there on fight day.

I'd want at least +1200 on Kron's submission prop or +1000 on his inside-the-distance prop (projected +900, listed +1100) in what could be either an exceedingly weird or an incredibly dull fight.

Bets

• Kron Gracie wins Inside the Distance (+1100, 0.1u) at DraftKings

Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov

Crowdsourced Projections: Ciryl Gane (81.2%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov preview from my colleague, Tony Sartori.

I previewed the first iteration of this matchup back in 2021 when Gane closed between -155 and -175 and won 14 of the 15 judge-decided rounds (one first-round scorecard for Volkov). The former interim champion opened around -240 for the rematch but has steamed toward -380 or higher as of writing.

While I think my projection potentially overestimates Gane in a rematch, UFC fighters who win the first fight do win rematches about 78% of the time.

However, the first fight wasn't as dominant as the scorecards suggest; Volkov landed more significant strikes in two rounds and tied in a third. Three of sixteen media members and 28% of fans had the fight scored 48-47.

Volkov is 5-1 since their first meeting, with his only loss to Tom Aspinall; Gane is 3-2, with losses to Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou.

I'm interested to see if Volkov changes his approach relative to the first fight, particularly if he attempts to grapple after Gane's submission loss to Jones and after Volkov subsequently finished Tai Tuivasa via choke.

The margins for covering a -400 pricetag as a striker in a three-round Heavyweight fight are relatively thin, and I doubt that Gane gets the same type of clean, distance kickboxing matchup that he saw the first time.

Gane is also dialing back from a three-round fight after a long streak of scheduled five-round fights; lack of urgency in Round 1 could prove crucial.

As a result, I'd pass on Gane's moneyline (as a parlay piece or otherwise) but would consider Bon Gamin to win by decision (projected -156, listed 130).

Bets

• Ciryl Gane wins by Decision (-135, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -145

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Garry

Crowdsourced Projections: Shavkat Rakhmonov (75.5%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Ian Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Shavkat has a three-inch reach advantage and is the stronger, more explosive, and more durable athlete. Rakhmonov has finished each of his 18 professional MMA opponents, with Geoff Neal handling his pressure best and surviving the longest (4:17 of Round 3).

Rakhmonov and the Under are correlated in this fight, and I feel similarly about Garry and the Over; if Ian makes it to Round Three or Four, he's been reasonably competitive.

Moreover, Garry has five-round experience after winning a belt in Cage Warriors; Shavkat has never competed in a five-round fight (and rarely sees a third round).

As a result, Garry may find his best success late in this fight, in the fourth and fifth rounds, against a potentially tiring opponent.

Garry must deny takedown attempts and maintain a distance kickboxing match to have his best chance of pulling off the upset. He's performed exceptionally well at range (+2.9 strike differential vs. +0.9 for Shavkat) and needs to avoid the clinch, where Rakhmonov dominates every opponent.

Shavkat is a much better cage wrestler than an open-mat wrestler, and I think Garry can do reasonably well at defending takedowns (he has been denied nine of 13 career attempts). He's also been training with Chute Box since last year and will have Charles Oliveira in his corner on Saturday; he's likely improved his defensive grappling while training in Brazil.

Still, Shavkat has a nasty top game. If he can get the fight to the mat, he leverages vicious ground and pound while searching for submission attempts.

I project value on the fight ending via finish or inside the distance (projected -284, listed -200 at DraftKings) and on Shavkat winning inside the distance (projected -178, listed -135) or by KO/TKO (projected +231, listed +280).

Alternatively, consider Garry by decision (projected +579, listed +700) or the finish-only markets (Garry +195).

I placed a Same Game Parlay (SGP) at ESPNBet, with Shavkat and the Fight to End Inside the Distance at -133; slightly better odds than playing him to win inside the distance at DraftKings (-135).

Bets

• Shavkat Rakhmonov Wins Inside the Distance (-133, Risk 1u) at ESPNBET (placed as a Same Game Parlay or SGP at this book); bet to -150

Kai Asakura vs. Alexandre Pantoja

Crowdsourced Projections: Alexandre Pantoja (69.5%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out my Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura preview.

I'd consider backing the underdog at +239 (29.5% implied) or better.

I expect this fight to go the distance or reach a decision 40% of the time (+150 implied odds). On average, Flyweight fights reach a decision nearly 55% of the time; this fight is lined closer to 33.3%. However, given the cardio concerns and lack of five-round experience on the Asakura side, I'd rather bet the Over 2.5 Rounds (-128) to -150 or the Fight Stars Round 4 prop at -110

Additionally, I project slight value on either fighter prop to win by decision, setting Pantoja at +260 (listed +350) and Asakura at +719 (listed +800). I also like Asakura's point spread: +9.5 points (+105) at plus money at DraftKings.

Bets

• Over 2.5 Rounds (-120, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -135
• Kai Asakura +9.5 Points (+105, 0.1u) at DrafKings; bet to +100

Sean Zerillo's UFC 310 Picks & Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

• Chris Weidman (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -110
• Randy Brown (+175, 0.25u) at BetMGM; bet to +170
• Aljamain Sterling (+200, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +180
• Vicente Luque (+140, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +130

Prop Bets and Totals

• Guida/Hooper, Under 1.5 Rounds (+125, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +110
• Guida/Hooper, Under 2.5 Rounds (-175, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -185
• Joshua Van wins in Round 2 (+600, 0.15u) at DraftKings; bet to +500
• Joshua Van wins in Round 3 (+1000, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +900
• Randy Brown wins by Decision (+500, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +400
• Gorimbo/Luque, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+120, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to +110
• Dominick Reyes wins by Decision (+410, 0.1u) at BetRivers; bet to +325
• Nate Landwehr / Doo Ho Choi, Fight Ends inside the Distance (-192, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -220
• Nate Landwehr wins in Round 2 (+850, 0.15u) at FanDuel; bet to +500
• Nate Landwehr wins in Round 3 (+1100, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +900
• Nate Landwehr wins by KO/TKO (+340, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +325
• Kron Gracie wins Inside the Distance (+1100, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +1000
• Ciryl Gane wins by Decision (-135, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -145
• Shavkat Rakhmonov wins Inside the Distance (-133, Risk 1u) at ESPNBet(placed as a Same Game Parlay or SGP at this book); bet to -150
• Asakura/Pantoja, Over 2.5 Rounds (-120, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -135
• Kai Asakura +9.5 Points (+105, 0.1u) at DrafKings; bet to +100

Parlays

• TBD

Live Bets

• Michael Chiesa Live after Round 1
• Joshua Van Live during or after Round 1
• Randy Brown Live after Round 1 or Round 2
• Nate Landwehr Live after Round 1