Check out some early UFC 310 picks to see which fighters are over or undervalued heading into the Saturday, November 23 event.
The last UFC PPV of the year takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: A market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 309 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 309 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Alexandre Pantoja (-285) vs. Kai Asakura (+230)
We'll be covering the main event fairly heavily this week, but I wanted to touch on what I believe is an early angle.
A huge chunk of the MMA fanbase — and by extension MMA bettors — don't pay much attention to non-UFC fighters — especially those fighting in Asian promotions, which can be tricky to watch stateside.
That leads to a betting bias against the fighter coming over from another promotion. Michael Page was a slight underdog in his UFC debut against Kevin Holland.
For that reason, I'd say Asakura's current +230 line is a bit undervalued, but money is, and will likely continue, to push it further towards Pantoja. I'll be betting Asakura in some fashion this week — but when and how will be decided later.
Verdict: Kai Asakura Undervalued
Bryce Mitchell (-700) vs. Kron Gracie (+500)
Korn Gracie isn't much of an MMA fighter. He's 5-2 as a professional, but has a pretty one dimensional skill set. He's the grandson of BJJ founder Helio Gracie, and son of legendary competitor Rickson Gracie.
He's also a two-time IBJJF world champion (before his 19th birthday) and one time ADCC no-gi grappling champion. That one dimension in his skill set is pretty good, being the point.
Here, he's matched up with the one member of the UFC's featherweight division that might actually engage Gracie on the ground. Bryce Mitchell has failed to get top position in just two of his nine UFC appearances — and was knocked down in both fights.
Gracie doesn't deserve to be a favorite here by any stretch, but I'd make the odds of Bryce Mitchell allowing this to become a grappling match at better than +500. This line could also swing a bit further so no rush on betting it, but I'm interested in the underdog.
Verdict: Kron Gracie Undervalued
Movsar Evloev (-265) vs. Aljamain Sterling (+215)
I'm seeing an inverse scenario to the Mitchell/Gracie fight here. Both these fighters do their best work grappling, averaging about seven takedowns per 15 minutes combined.
However, the underdog in this spot is a good enough wrestler — and sharp enough game planner — that he might force this into a striking match.
Aljamain Sterling isn't winning any kickboxing championships, but has some solid wins in the UFC that were mostly striking matches. The only win for Evloev that came without multiple takedowns was against Mike Grundy, who went 1-3 in his UFC run. Grundy landed six takedowns on Evloev — and also lost a submission grappling match to Sterling last year.
If Sterling weren't on the wrong side of 35 years old I'd argue the former bantamweight champ should be favored. As it stands, I'd make his fair odds closer to +150 or so.
This line has seen some resistance anytime it's crept past +215, so I'm jumping on it now. The best line is at DraftKings.
