Check out our UFC 310 predictions for the Saturday, December 7, event in Las Vegas, Nevada, with prelims starting at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT). The main card goes down at 10 p.m. ET, featuring a flyweight title fight main event between Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Asakura.
Our MMA experts have studied this weekend's 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and have found plenty of value on the last PPV card of the year.
So, where should you look to place your UFC 310 bets? Our crew has pinpointed three picks on the Pantoja vs. Asakura fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches, plus Sean Zerillo's projections, below.
All odds, unless stated otherwise, are from DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 310 Best Bets
Sean Zerillo: Aljamain Sterling vs. Mosvar Evloev
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
This fight—with title implications—should be on the PPV main card but is instead buried on the prelims because of the proactive wrestling styles of both Featherweight contenders.
The undefeated Evloev attempts 6.1 takedowns per five minutes at distance (46% accuracy), even higher than former Bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling (5.6, 28%), whose only loss since 2017 came in a fight he was leading.
Sterling is an excellent round winner due partly to his underrated striking output (+2.5 strike differential per minute at a distance vs. +1.5 for Evloev).
"The Funkmaster" is constantly chipping away at opponents and overloading their brains with volume. He should have a better gas tank at 145 than he did at 135, and fighting three rounds instead of five allows him to push a pace closer to that of his teammate, chief training partner, and current Bantamweight champion, Merab Dvailishili. Sterling consistently edges close rounds against high-level competition by filling space with volume.
Conversely, Evloev is in many close fights and rarely separates from his opponents on the scorecards. He won a split over Nik Lentz, and his unanimous wins against Enrique Barzola and Arnold Allen could have gone against him.
Evloev has superior grappling data (89% vs. 65% control rate) than Sterling, but he's also faced a far lesser slate of opponents. He's typically been in the position to grapple his opposition offensively. Still, when opponents (Barzola, Mike Grundy) proactively wrestle Evloev, they've been able to ground him, and Sterling is easily the best offensive wrestler that he's faced in the UFC in terms of consolidating that position or denying takedowns of his own.
Sterling is in his second fight in the division and looks to have added muscle to fill out his frame, with more time to adjust to his body for the weight class. Evloev should still have a power advantage in the striking exchanges, but Sterling could be a big underdog with technical advantages everywhere else in the matchup; don't be surprised if he wins the grappling outright.
I projected Aljo as a +172 underdog and would bet his moneyline to +180.
I also show value on Sterling's decision prop (projected +289, listed +350) and would bet his point spread (+3.5, -145) up to -150.
The Pick: Aljamain Sterling +200 (Caesars)
Tony Sartori: Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
In the Michael Chiesa (+100) vs. Max Griffin (-125) prelim bout, the steam is on the underdog. Chiesa opened at +120 before being bet down to his current +100 price, and I agree with the steam.
I understand why oddsmakers opened him a bit wider than how the market views him. Chiesa spends half his time as a broadcaster and has one foot out the door, while his only win over the past (approximately) four years came against a washed Tony Ferguson.
With that said, if he can beat a washed Ferguson, then he can also beat a 39-year-old Griffin. The latter is even older than Chiesa, and I wouldn't be shocked if either one of these two retires after the bout.
The point is that both fighters are at the end of their careers, and I don't understand how you can open one as a 40-cent favorite over the other. That is why the market has bet this fight down to nearly a pick 'em, and if I were catching Griffin at +100, I would probably be betting on him instead.
Another reason why I like Chiesa is the perceived recency bias in these prices. Chiesa is 1-3 over his past four fights, while Griffin is 2-2, but that surface-level observation does not tell the whole story.
Chiesa's win was a finish (albeit against 2024 Ferguson), while Griffin's past "win" was a bout that he should not have won. Griffin's latest split decision victory over Jeremiah Wells was extremely controversial, with nine of the 11 media scores giving the fight to Wells.
If Griffin is 1-3 over the same stretch as Chiesa's past four fights with only one split-decision victory, I don't think that oddsmakers open Chiesa at +120, which is why the market is moving the line.
A final reason why Chiesa's moneyline is my best bet of the week is the current +100 price tag available at BetWay. That is an especially favorable line that is 12-20 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
The Pick: Michael Chiesa ML (+100 at BetWay)
Bryan Fonseca: Randy Brown vs. Bryan Battle
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Even before Bryan Battle's weight miss, I didn't love this match-up for him. Battle's earned some hype in the UFC for his 6-1 record since joining the promotion. He only lost a decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov, and enters this fight riding the high of a Performance of the Night bonus off a stoppage over Kevin Jousset in France just over two months ago.
Battle missed weight and wasn't even close, off by four pounds, looking pretty drained, too. Maybe it's too quick of a turnaround. But even with the added context, the veteran Brown is a stylistic pain in the ass. Brown is 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach and will look to pick his shots from the outside. He has also won three straight and seven of eight since 2021.
Battle missed weight in another bout somewhat recently. He was two pounds over against Gabriel Green in May, 2013 and still won a 14-second knockout. But Green isn't Brown, Battle looked worse on the scale this time, and his layoff between fights that time was five months, not just over two.
The Pick: Randy Brown +164 (FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:15 a.m. ET
The main event of UFC 310 features promotional newcomer and former Rizin champion Kai Asakura, taking on UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja.
One of the reasons Asakura got an immediate title shot is due to the state of the division. Pantoja has two wins each over the next two ranked fighters (Brandons Royval and Moreno) — and those two fighters have beaten almost everyone below them.
However, it hasn't been an entirely dominant title run for Pantoja. All three of his title fights have gone to a decision, with one of those a close unanimous decision and another a split.
This is why seeing the "point spread" line on DraftKings adjusted to 9.5 this week is a great opportunity. For Pantoja to cover his side, he either needs to win every round or finish the fight. Winning four rounds would result in scores of 49-46 x3 — or a total of nine points.
Asakura has never been submitted as a pro and has strong defensive grappling. That's the obvious path to a finish for the grappling-heavy Pantoja, whose last knockout win came more than five years ago.
Pantoja also occasionally struggles with cardio, so Asakura should be able to win at least one round. That's a solid bet to make, considering we're getting plus money.
The Pick: Kai Asakura +9.5 (+105 DraftKings) — Good to -125
