Check out our UFC picks and our favorite long-shot UFC 310 props for Saturday, December 7.
UFC 310 is the final PPV of the year, headlined by a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and UFC newcomer Kai Asakura. The prelims stream on ESPN+ beginning at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN+ PPV starting at 10 p.m. ET.
With 14 fights on the card, UFC 310 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found four picks.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC 310 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 310 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC 310 Prop Picks – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Tony Sartori: Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC 310 prelims feature a flyweight bout between the No. 14-ranked contender Cody Durden (+130) and unranked prospect Joshua Van (-182). The steam is on Durden, who opened as a +140 favorite and has since been bet down to his current +130 price tag.
I agree with the steam, but I think there is even more value in his submission prop at 6/1.
Look, I am as big of a Van believer as anyone else – he is a fun prospect in the 125-pound weight class who is immediately becoming a fan favorite, and for good reason. His fights are highly entertaining as his boxing is smooth while throwing punches in bunches.
At just 23 years old, Van is certainly a prospect to keep an eye on, with an already impressive 11-2 record. With that said, this fight is a massive step up for such a young fighter, and it is the second such fight of its kind for Van.
Earlier this summer, Van received a massive step up in competition when he took on Charles Johnson, although he came up short as Johnson won by knockout. Van rebounded with a victory over Edgar Chairez, but that is someone who is not on the level of either Johnson or Durden.
I still think Durden is a big leap for the 23-year-old, and the market is starting to agree as the line is moving in Durden's direction. If we believe that to be the case, then there are certainly worse bets to make on Saturday than Durden's 6/1 submission prop.
Durden will shoot for takedowns, and we just saw Van get taken down twice by a far-less talented Felipe Bunes earlier this year. Once Durden gets this fight on the mat, the probability of a submission victory increases.
The guy just submitted Schnell with a ninja choke a few months ago, and I am a little worried about how Van (coincidentally, like Schnell) is taking all these fights within rapid succession of one another after leaving them with serious damage. Van just got knocked out by Johnson and received some damage from Chairez, which also opens another door for Durden to win by submission if he can wobble Van and pounce for the takedown.
The Pick: Cody Durden by Submission (+600 at BetWay)
Bryan Fonseca: Randy Brown vs. Bryan Battle
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Bryan Battle missed weight by four points, and he has dropped from a -225 favorite to closer to -180. And on the scales, he look pretty drained.
For a little sprinkle, I don't mind targeting weight misses. Battle has a weight miss from May 2023 where it didn't matter — he was two pounds over and won via 14-second knockout.
But that's different than this.
He was fighting Gabriel Green — who is not Randy Brown. He is also only about 10 weeks removed from his most recent fight, whereas his time between fights prior to missing weight before the Green fight was a standard five months.
Brown does have finishing ability, with seven stoppages in his career, his most recent against Muslim Salikhov in February which earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.
I like Brown having the height (6-foot-3 to 6-foot-1) and reach (78 inches to 77 inches) advantages, though they're not everything, and he seems pretty pissed off about having an opponent who failed to make weight (again).
So you have Brown with the height and reach edges, you have a possibly weight-drained favorite against a motivated underdog with the ability to finish? I'll take a shot at +500 for that finish. He's also +500 by decision, which I think could also be worth a look.
The Pick: Randy Brown by KO/TKO +500 (FanDuel)
John LanFranca: Dominick Reyes vs. Anthony Smith
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
Dominick Reyes is the rightful favorite over the 36-year-old Anthony Smith, but there is no denying the level of volatility both of these men bring to the octagon when they step inside. Smith has 57 professional fights under his belt, with just 14% of those going to the judges’ scorecards. Smith’s opponent Reyes has yet to see a single fight go to decision since his loss to Jon Jones back in early 2020.
Reyes has multiple advantages over Smith wherever this fight goes, and as the younger man, he is faster, more athletic, and still possesses the tools that make him a title challenger. The problem is only one of his last four fights didn’t end directly because of his lack of durability.
Reyes blitzing Dustin Jacoby within two minutes was a welcomed sight by many MMA fans, but it did not necessarily answer questions regarding his ability to withstand any type of clean strike that can cause damage.
Anthony Smith is not a prolific finisher when it comes to his striking ability, but at one point in his career, he did rack up five consecutive wins by way of KO/TKO when he was the one getting his hand raised.
While Smith submitting Reyes feels quite unlikely, I like to err on the side of caution when it comes to potential club-and-sub situations. Furthermore, Smith has five submission victories over a strong slate of opponents since 2018, so you can never truly count that path to victory out when it comes to Smith.
Anthony Smith’s moneyline is +265, but this is a man who has won just three fights by decision out of his 37 career victories. Against an opponent with uncertainty surrounding his durability, I would much rather lean into the volatile nature of this scrap.
The Pick: Anthony Smith by KO/TKO or Submission +480 (FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Kron Gracie vs. Bryce Mitchell
Staff Writer at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:15 a.m. ET
The featherweight bout between Bryce Mitchell and Kron Gracie is perhaps undeserving of its main card booking. Mitchell is in the back end of the official rankings, but Gracies has just one UFC fight — a loss — in the last five years.
The reason for the placement — other than a reluctance to give either man an open mic on broadcast television — is the potential for an exciting grappling match.
Gracie is the grandson of BJJ founder Helio and son of combat sports legend Rickson Gracie, with world championship wins in both gi and no-gi jiu-jitsu competitions. He can't wrestle or strike all that well — but he's a problem for anyone on the ground.
The (flat) ground is also where Mitchell prefers to operate. He's got questionable striking of his own — as we saw when he was flattened by Josh Emmett in his last outing. However, his striking is still probably better than Gracie's, and his wrestling certainly is.
That means the decision on whether to bring this fight to the ground rests on Mitchell, even if he doesn't believe gravity has anything to do with it.
Mitchell might be the one active fighter who doesn't see the flaw in that plan, though. That gives Gracie at least an outside shot to do what he does best and lock up a submission win. It's not the likeliest scenario, of course — but that's why it's coming in at +1200 odds.
The Pick: Kron Gracie via Submission +1200 (DraftKings/BetMGM)
