The first PPV card of the year is a good one, with two title fights at the top of the 14-fight card. It goes down at the Intuit dome in Los Angeles, barring any wildfire-based site changes, with the prelims starting at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. Mostly, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 311 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 311 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Islam Makhachev (-425) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (+330)
Islam Makhachev has fulfilled his potential as the heir to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He'll be looking for a fourth straight lightweight title defense this weekend, a rarity in the modern UFC. He has, by far, his toughest test in the division in Arman Tsarukyan.
Tsarukyan actually made his UFC debut on short notice against Makhachev in 2019. It was the seventh UFC fight for Makhachev, who was well on his way to being a UFC contender. Tsarukyan gave Makhachev all he could handle, becoming one of just two UFC opponents to land a takedown on the now-champ.
This time he gets a full training camp and a five-round fight in his second attempt against Makhachev.
The champ deserves to be the favorite here, but Tsarukyan is by far the most dangerous threat to his title reign. He has the grappling ability to keep up with Makhachev and might be the more dangerous striker as well. Plus, he's about five years younger.
All of which means the line should be much closer here. I'll be splitting my exposure between a moneyline pick and Tsarukyan's point spread when that becomes available, but either way, I'm on the challenger here.
Verdict: Arman Tsaurkyan Undervalued
Merab Dvalishvilli (+260) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-325)
The other title fight at UFC 311 features another Khabib Nurmagomedov protégé — this time, his cousin Umar takes the cage.
It's another grappler-vs-grappler matchup, with defending champion Merab Dvalishvilli coming in as a moderate underdog. The line has continued to move Nurmagomedov's way as well, with the opening line on Dvalshvilli around +170.
This time I actually agree — directionally — with the movement toward the favorite. Both main event fighters are equally matched in grappling and striking, while the favorite here has a more noticeable striking edge.
However, this is still too big of a line for a defending champion on an 11-fight winning streak against a relatively unproven challenger with only one fight against a top-five opponent. I'm waiting for a better price but also doubling up on Merab with his moneyline and point spread when available.
Verdict: Merab Dvalishvilli Undervalued
Jamahal Hill (-112) vs. Jiri Prozchaka (-108)
This one isn't a title fight, but it features two former champions who lost their belts due to injury rather than in the cage.
Of course, both later went on to lose return fights against current champion Alex Pereira, with Prozchaka getting two cracks at "Poatan" since coming back from his shoulder injury.
Hill's only fight after his return from an Achilles tendon tear was last April against Pereira. That fight also (arguably) ended in controversy, with Hill fouling Pereira, Pereira waving away the referee who attempted to pause the fight, and then finishing Hill, who momentarily let his guard down. I'm not sure if that officially counts as "bad luck," but it was strange, to say the least.
More importantly, I always like to "buy low" on fighters in their second fight back from significant injuries. Especially considering the nine months since UFC 300, Hill should be much closer to full strength than he was then.
Jump on Hill's line now, as it's been working its way up in recent weeks. The best available is -105 at BetRivers, but I'd take anywhere inside -120.
Verdict: Jamahal Hill Undervalued
Kevin Holland (-112) vs. Reinier de Ridder (-108)
This pick isn't so much about "luck" as it is about line movement. Reinier de Ridder opened at plus-money, and his line has continued to fall since I started writing this article.
The former ONE FC champion was a big signing for the UFC late last year and picked up a third-round submission over Gerald Meerschaert in his promotional debut. "The Dutch Knight" is known for his elite grappling, with black belts in both Judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Holland has historically struggled with grapplers and publicly campaigned for fights against strikers. Plus, his last fight was stopped short because of a rib injury. While it didn't seem to be a significant issue, that was barely three months ago. That means Holland, at the very least, was out of the gym for a couple of weeks heading into this one.
Grab RDR's line now, as we'll likely see him close around -130. The best available is -105 at Caesars.
Verdict: Reinier de Ridder Undervalued
