Check out our UFC 311 predictions for the Saturday, January 18, event in Los Angeles, California, with prelims starting at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT). The main card goes down at 10 p.m. ET, featuring a makeshift main event between Islam Makhachev and Renato Moicano.
Our MMA experts have studied this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the first PPV card of the year.
So, where should you look to place your UFC 311 bets? Our crew has pinpointed three picks on the Makhachev vs. Moicano fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches, plus Sean Zerillo's projections, below.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
All odds, unless stated otherwise, are from DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 311 Best Bets
Sean Zerillo: Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
Zachary Reese was initially scheduled to face Sedriques Dumas (as a -275 favorite) but will get LFA middleweight champion Azamat Bekoev instead on short notice.
Reese is the bigger man (4 inches taller, 5-inch reach advantage), seemingly the more potent finisher and proved he has 15-minute cardio in his recent win over Jose Medina, landing more than 100 significant strikes for the fight and completing four takedown attempts in the third round.
Although that fight was seemingly a mismatch, Reese, who previously fit into the quick finish or bust archetype, upgraded his ceiling by showing average cardio.
I'd give Bekoev a greater chance of winning this matchup on a whole camp, but the short notice booking could neutralize the cardio dynamic. Reese is an extraordinarily chaotic and unorthodox opponent, and I'd expect him to remain the more dangerous fighter throughout as the bigger man.
I'd expect Bekoev to look to wrestle and get on top of Reese early. Still, Reese has a lethal guard game and is happy to hunt for submissions off his back. Moreover, I haven't been impressed with Bekoev's striking and I view Reese as the likelier of the pair to land the more impactful damage at a distance.
Bet Reese to +130 and consider his inside-the-distance prop at +225 or higher (projected +201).
Additionally, consider betting Under 2.5 Rounds to -160 or the Fight to End Inside the Distance (projected -219, listed -175) at -200 or better.
The Pick: Zachary Reese (+164 at FanDuel) | Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-170 at Caesars) | Reese wins Inside the Distance (+275 at DraftKings)
John Lanfranca: Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:00 p.m. ET
Serghei Spivac has had a very respectable run in the UFC, with plenty of success being the more physical man and more skilled grappler. However, at UFC 311 he is stepping into the octagon with a man who has him covered skill for skill, no matter what type of fight takes place.
Simply put, Spivac needs to implement his wrestling attack to get his hand raised. Of his previous six wins, five were finishes in his favor, and in all five of those he landed takedowns. In fact, all five of those victories were claimed on the mat. In his previous three losses, he was not able to land a single takedown, twice being finished by strikes, suffering a knockout defeat.
Jailton Almeida has a major athletic advantage and is one of the most lethal submission artists in the heavyweight division. It is very unlikely Spivac will be able to catch Almeida by surprise with a submission from bottom position.
Almeida will stick to his usual gameplan; he averages 6.8 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is relentless in pursuit of his edge in the grappling department, and there is no reason to think he won’t drag Spivac to the mat early in this fight.
Spivac has been knocked out three times in his career, and he does not defend strikes well when his opponent has a dominant position. Almeida will continue to threaten with submissions as well. While Spivac has never been submitted in his MMA career, even oddsmakers recognize that he has not faced the level of danger in submission grappling that Almeida presents.
Almeida is +100 to win this fight by submission, implying a 50% chance that is how he gets the job done. Finding a TKO on the mat has become the value play given how I expect this fight to play out.
I am totally comfortable laying the juice to have both paths to victory in my pocket here. Almeida will not need the full 15 minutes to decide this fight.
The Pick: Jalton Almeida by KO/TKO or Submission -200 (DraftKings)
Bryan Fonseca: Jamahal Hill vs. Jiri Prochazka
Contributor at Action Network
I like Jamahal Hill here. I don't love it beyond the -125-to-130 threshold; I'd probably look elsewhere if this gets too juiced.
I think Hill is a deserving favorite. Hill, who like Jiri Prochazka is coming off a knockout loss to Alex Pereira, has been stopped twice in his MMA career, but Prochazka has been stopped twice in his last three fights. Granted, both were by Pereira, but being chinny is being chinny.
Overall, Prochazka has been knocked out four times in MMA and has always had his defensive deficiencies, making him a hittable target for Hill.
Ultimately, I trust Hill to be smarter, and while he could get caught, betting on Prochazka is more risky to me because he's more willing to brawl, and as explosive as he is, he's liable to get tagged early and often.
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:15 p.m. ET
The Pick: Jamahal Hill -125 (DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Reinier de Ridder vs. Kevin Holland
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
Reinier de Ridder jumped ship to the UFC last year following a run in ONE FC in which he became a two-division champion, and even challenged for the heavyweight crown. While that bid was ultimately unsuccessful, de Ridder is still undefeated at his natural weight class of middleweight in his MMA career.
de Ridder fought Gerald Meerschaert in his UFC debut — a fight that showed both his ceiling and his floor. On the one hand, he struggled at times on the feet with GM3, who's known far more for his grappling than his striking. On the other hand, he took Meerschaert down nearly at will, and picked up a third-round submission over the fighter with the most wins in the division's history.
His UFC 311 fight against Kevin Holland should be an even more extreme version of that dynamic. Holland is a much better striker than Meerschaert, but also a weaker grappler. Holland has also done his best work in the UFC at welterweight, while this fight is at middleweight.
That's significant, since de Ridder's chin has a much better chance of holding up against the smaller fighter. He's only ever been truly hurt at light heavyweight and above. Which means he should be able to weather the striking storm long enough to get this one to the mat, where we just saw Holland dominated by a similar grappler in Roman Dolidze.
I got a slightly better price on de Ridder in my Luck Ratings early in the week, but I'm still fine with de Ridder at the current price. I wouldn't go too much past -120 before pivoting to a de Ridder finish, though.
The Pick: Reinier de Ridder -120 (FanDuel)
