Check out our UFC picks with our favorite long-shot UFC 311 props for Saturday, January 18.
UFC 311 takes place at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif. The prelims stream on ESPN+ begins at 6 p.m. ET, and the main card on ESPN+ PPV starts at 10 p.m.
With 13 fights on the card, UFC 311 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found four picks they like for the first PPV card of the year.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC 311 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 311 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC 311 Props Predictions
John Lanfranca: Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:30 p.m. ET
Not long ago Bogdan Guskov stepped into the UFC as an unknown to face Volkan Oezdemir. Guskov was dispatched within the first round, landing only eight strikes before he was taken down and eventually submitted. Before entering the octagon, he was victorious on the regional scene, most recently beating a fighter with a record of 20-10.
Since his loss in his debut, Guskov has finished two consecutive opponents – one who may not even be UFC level and Ryan Spann who is undoubtedly one of the most volatile fighters on the roster. While I am not trying to disregard his 2-1 record in the UFC, plenty of questions remain to be answered. Guskov has only fought outside of the 1st round once over the last five years, thus, questions about his cardio will remain until he’s involved in a 15-minute bout.
Now, Guskov is the one welcoming a newcomer to the octagon. Billy Elekana steps in on short notice, and I do not believe he will be overwhelmed. While Elekana may not have finished UFC-level opponents, his strength of schedule and recent form suggest that he was going to eventually get a chance at the big stage.
Elekana is the more crisp striker of the two and has a dangerous head kick that could present problems for Guskov. The Uzbek keeps his hands very low and wings punches from all angles. A more technical opponent will eventually expose the holes in Guskov’s defense, and I am willing to take the chance that Elekana beats him to the punch more often than not.
Lastly, Elekana does possess some wrestling skills that could come into play if the fight gets extended. There is value in Elekana weathering the early storm en route to turning in an impressive debut over a fighter with plenty of unanswered questions handing over him.
The Pick: Billy Elekana by KO/TKO or Submission +460 (FanDuel)
Bryan Fonseca: Jamahal Hill vs. Jiri Prochazka
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:15 p.m. ET
I like Jamahal Hill to win this, and I think most of us are expecting a stoppage.
For me, it's likely to happen before Round 3 on either side if that's the case. Hill has two first-round stoppages over his last five. On the other hand, Jiri Prochazka was stopped by Alex Pereira in the second round during each of their bouts — which both took place over the last 14 months.
Hill has two of his seven KOs after Round 2, and Jiri has always finished a fight that went to Round 3. Both guys are explosive and have great finishing ability, but since I like Hill, I'd rather back him by stoppage, even though Jiri could end this early.
The Pick: Jamahal Hill by KO/TKO in Round 1, +450 | Round 2 + 650
Billy Ward: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
This was one of the fights I previewed this week, where I officially recommended Umar Nurmagomedov to finish the fight at +300. However, that's not quite exciting enough for the Prop Squad.
While Nurmagomedov's best skill is his grappling — which submits his obvious path to a stoppage — I think the market is overlooking his odds of finishing this one with strikes.
The biggest reason is that Merab Dvalishvili is also an elite grappler. He's probably the better pure wrestler of the pair in this matchup, and at worst can hold his own in the submission realm. The path of least resistance for Nurmagomedov is probably to keep this one stranding, where he has what I believe to be a more clearly defined edge in striking.
Plus, we've seen Merab hurt before. While he's never been knocked out, he's been rocked on numerous occasions and was dropped by Marlon Moraes. If this one goes five rounds with Nurmagomedov fending off takedowns, there will be plenty of opportunities for a finish.
Plus, Dvalishvili is coming into this dealing with some kind of injury, and with an abbreviated camp. Both of those things raise the odds of an injury stoppage — which would of course be ruled a TKO.
The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov via KO/TKO/DQ +850 (FanDuel)
