UFC 312 Odds, Predictions: Expert Picks, Previews for All 12 Fights

Check out the latest UFC 312 odds and betting lines, along with my predictions for all 12 fights in Saturday afternoon's pay-per-view at the Qudos Bank Aena in Sydney, Australia.

Below, I look at the latest UFC 312 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card.

Here's how to watch UFC 312 today: The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ at 6:00 p.m. ET (3:00 p.m. PT), and then the main card is on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET (PPV cost: $79.99).

UFC 312 Predictions, Odds

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 312 odds, today's event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 312 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC 312 odds are as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 312 with our DraftKings promo code.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 312 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 12 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC 312 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside the distance.

Quillan Salkilld vs. Anshul Jubli

Projection: Quillan Salkilld (84.6%)

Salkilld is a well-rounded martial artist with good cardio, but he's not a particularly explosive athlete. The Perth native earned a contract on Contender Series by out-working his opponent, winning 70-52 on strikes at distance while shooting 22 takedowns (completed nine for 4:40 control time).

The Aussie has a six-inch reach advantage and likely a wrestling advantage over Jubli, who has power and decent technique but lacks the cardio or striking defense to win minutes consistently at the highest level of MMA.

If Jubli can keep the fight standing, I'd expect to see competitive striking exchanges early. Still, once Salkilld initiates the grappling, he should begin to wear on Jubli's gas tank. I'd expect the Aussie to gain control positions and finish the fight in the second or third round.

Either structure a wager on Salkiilld to win in Rounds 2 or 3 (need +400 and +600 respectively) or place a same game parlay (SDP) with Salkilld and Over 1.5 Rounds.

Bets

• SGP: Quillan Salkilld and Over 1.5 Rounds (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -115

Kevin Jousset vs. Jonathan Micallef

Projection: Kevin Jousset (71.7%)

Jousset's line opened around -200 before moving toward -250; now that it's returning toward the opener, it's getting into range for a bet (projected -254), but I'd wait for -230 or better to play the favorite.

Micallef is grappling-reliant, but Jousset – a black belt judoka – should have the defensive skill to keep this fight standing. Moreover, the City Kickboxing-trained Frenchman showed solid striking in his win over Song Kenan (won 121-55 at distance). If Jousset can prevent takedowns from Micallef or sprawl and brawl while avoiding getting his back taken, he should be the far more consistent minute-winner.

I lean toward the Under in a relatively binary matchup, but I'd want closer to the price for the Under 2.5 (+125 to +130) on the Fight Ends Inside the Distance (projected +110).

Additionally, I view Micallef's inside-the-distance prop (projected +500, listed +500) as closer to the value side of the winning method market. Still, I'd rather wait for Jousset's moneyline to come into range.

Bets

• Kevin Jousset (-225, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -230

Kody Steele vs. Rongzhu

Projection: Kody Steele (69.7%)

Billy Ward and I highlighted Kody Steele by submission at +390 as our favorite prop on the Action Network Podcast.

The line moved to +340, thanks to the listeners, before I could even bet it. Still, I like Steele's submission prop at +275 or better (projected +250) and would consider his inside-the-distance prop at +110 (projected +102).

Steele is a former combat jiu-jitsu world champion who transitioned to MMA in 2022. He's shown solid striking, wrestling, and cardio for a high-level jiu-jitsu practitioner, giving him a decent floor and ceiling as a prospect, even though he's already in his physical prime (age 29).

Rongzhu is in his second stint in the UFC and has a 1-4 record. His only win was over Brandon Jenkins, who was signed on short notice to replace Rongzhu's original opponent. After a second-finish loss to Drakkar Klose, Jenkins was cut before a traditional third UFC fight.

Steele should have a severe grappling advantage in this matchup — and Rongzhu has four submission losses on his record. If he follows the path of least resistance, Steele should cover his moneyline price and likely finish the fight too.

Bets

• Kody Steele wins by Submission (+350, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +275

Aleksandre Topuria vs. Colby Thicknesse

Projection: Aleksandre Topuria (76.7%)

Aleksandre Topuria — brother of Ilia — will make his UFC debut on Saturday with the bantamweight champion in his corner.

Topuria was initially supposed to face Cody Haddon but will instead draw Colby Thicnkesse — one of Alexander Volkanovski's training partners — on short notice.

While this isn't the Topuria-Volkanovski rematch many would like to see (I think it goes down similarly as the first fight if not worse for Volk) this prelim should get the competitive juices flowing for both the future hall of famers in either corner.

We don't have a ton of recent footage on the 29-year-old Topuria, who has won three fights — each in less than half a round — since 2015, and the first two opponents had a combined record of 8-28-1.

Determining how his athleticism will translate to the UFC level is also challenging. Ilia is an elite athlete –in the top one percent of the UFC, if not the world. He combines incredible power with fast-twitch speed and is exceptionally durable.

Conversely, Aleksandre was knocked out in 2015 (albeit at age 20), before his six-year absence from the sport, and it's difficult to tell how his power and explosiveness — displayed against the lowest of low-level regional competition — will translate to a substantially higher level. Moreover, his gas tank is a mystery; he hasn't seen a second round in a pro fight in nearly ten years.

Thicknesse is seemingly well-rounded, but he's a much lesser athlete. Still, if he can survive the opening frame, he may have better cardio, and the Aussie is worth a live wager after five minutes.

I lean toward a contrarian Over or goes to decision wager in this fight, with the bout at +240 (29.4%) to reach a decision — compared to a divisional average of about 48%.

Bet the Over 1.5 Rounds to -135, play the distance prop to +220 (projected +209), and get down with the Thicknesse live after Round 1.

Bets

• Over 1.5 Rounds (-122, 0.25u) at BallyBet; bet to -135
• Fight Goes to Decision (+230, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +225
• Colby Thicknesse Live after Round 1

Cong Wang vs. Bruna Brasil

Projection: Cong Wang (74.6%)

Cong Wang is a sizable favorite yet again after an upset loss against Gabriella Fernandez in November, where she closed as high as -1400, one of the biggest upsets in promotional history:

Bruna Brasil is moving up in weight after an upset win of her own (closed +275) against Molly McCann — where she showed much improved offensive grappling.

Brasil was always big for 115 and is the same size on paper as Cong (1" reach discrepancy). Moreover, she likely has the grappling advantage in this fight as the underdog. Brasil typically struggles when getting outgrappled by her opponents. Still, if she can settle into a low-tempo kickboxing match and mix in some takedowns, she should make this matchup far more competitive than the line suggests.

I doubt Cong will let her settle in. The favorite is reckless in her approach and should continue stalking her opponent for the duration. Brasil may need to hit reactive takedowns to counter that momentum.

I'd want +325 (23.5% implied) or higher to bet Brasil on the moneyline (projected +294, 25.4% implied) against a dangerous but one-dimensional striker.

Additionally, for round-robin purposes, I'm interested in Brasil's odds of winning by decision (projected +556, listed +700) or submission (projected +1131, listed +1400).

Bets

• Wait for +325 on Bruna Brasil

Tom Nolan vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

Projection: Viacheslav Borshchev (54.2%)

Tom Nolan is gigantic (6'3") for the Lightweight division, with a four-inch height and reach advantage against Viacheslav "Slava Claus" Borshchev.

Younger fighters hold a significant advantage when there's at least a seven-year age gap between UFC opponents, winning about 12% more often than their average betting odds suggest.

Still, Borshchev is the far more technical striker. He uses a diverse array of boxing combinations to the head and body, hard low kicks and the ability to switch his stance and give his opponents different looks.

Slava has had a problematic slate of matchups against grapplers in the UFC (he spent 42% of his fight time grappling) and has rarely been gifted pure striking fights until recently. He's undoubtedly the slower, less athletic fighter. Still, he has much better timing and a far higher striking IQ than Nolan (+3.2 to +1.5 strike differential per minute). His ability to rip the body pays dividends the longer his fights extend.

Nolan is the bigger, more powerful puncher but is a bit of a glass cannon. I don't think he'll make the most of his length at a distance, but I expect him to be dangerous in the clinch — where he can leverage his size into knees and elbows. The more he can grapple – or at least cage push on Slava – the better his chances; if he gives Slava the distance to make his reads, Nolan will probably get picked apart.

While Borschev doesn't have significant power in individual strikes, his body shots create attritional damage. Conversely, while Nolan doesn't have a great chin, he's won several decisions throughout his professional and amateur career despite the assumption that his frame at 155 pounds would lead to poor cardio.

Like the Topuria-Thicknesse bout, I lean toward a contrarian Over 1.5 or go to decision wager in this fight. The bout is at +250 (28.6%) to reach a decision, compared to a divisional average of about 54%.

Bet the Over 1.5 Rounds to -150, and/or play the distance prop to +200 (projected +176).

Additionally, depending on the book, I project value on either fighter to win by decision. In that market, both fighters are near +450, compared to odds of +500 for Slava and +650 for Nolan; I'd lean to the former on round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Over 1.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -150
• Fight Goes to Decision (+250, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +200

Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos

Projection: Gabriel Santos (72.9%)

Quickslip

Tail Zerillo & Bet Santos (-230)

Jack Jenkins was the most "public" underdog in my data sample this week, with fans and bettors selecting the Aussie at a 69% clip despite implied odds of nearly 35%.

Gabriel Santos is the bigger man (2" advantage in both height and reach) and the better athlete. He seemingly has Jenkins covered in this fight, skill for skill.

Still, Santos is incredibly exciting because he tends to brawl with opponents and fight at a high pace. This can lead to him tiring when he faces resistance, but if he lands takedowns against Jenkins, he should be in the driver's seat.

Jenkins likely has a better gas tank and strong leg kicks to neutralize Santos' movement. However, he's been taken down and out-grappled for at least half a round against each of his four UFC opponents, and Santos is the best grappler and most physical opponent he's faced to date.

I projected Santos as a near -270 favorite and would bet his moneyline to -250. However, I don't project value on the total or any winning method props.

Bets

• Gabriel Santos (-230, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -250

Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado

Projection: Jake Matthews (60.1%)

Quickslip

Bet Prado +200 Instantly (Mobile Only)

Francisco Prado is moving up from lightweight to welterweight for this fight, following his fight of the night loss against Daniel Zellhuber nearly one year ago in Mexico City. While he's at a four-inch reach discrepancy against Jake Matthews, Prado should be the far more powerful and durable striker. I expect substantial improvements to his overall game after moving to American Top Team — arguably the best camp in the sport.

While Prado didn't seem like a particularly big lightweight, he's only 22 years old and has settled into his new weight class very quickly; Prado looked impressive on the scales on Friday.

While he tired at elevation in Mexico City, moving up would typically alleviate any cardio concerns. Adding muscle could compensate for some of that, but I trust his new camp to prepare him technically and physically for this matchup.

Matthews has 14 UFC wins, but all but one (over Li Jingliang) have aged poorly. He loses any time he takes a significant step up in competition, and despite a well-rounded skillset, Matthews has never made any substantial improvements to his game. He runs his own gym and is coached by his father.

Moreover, Matthews isn't reliable in pursuing the path of least resistance when he has an advantage, despite a projected grappling edge over Prado (he spends 60% of his fight time at distance, controls 62% of grappling positions, and averages 2.1 takedowns per five minutes at distance).

That said, if Matthews can't hit takedowns in this fight — or hold Prado down for extended stretches — I expect him to lose on physicality against a younger, more powerful opponent. Jake has sound striking defense (61% career) but has never worn damage or reacted well to clean punches; he was knocked down in each round by Matthew Semelsberger and has been wobbled in other recent fights.

Bet Prado on the moneyline to +160, and play his knockout prop at +375 or better (projected +348, listed +430.)

Bets

• Francisco Prado (+200, 0.75u) at DraftKings; bet to +160
• Francisco Prado wins by KO/TKO (+430, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +375

Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Projection: Rodolfo Bellato (50.6%)

Crute stepped away from the sport to take a mental health break after his most recent loss to Alonzo Menifield, arguably his fourth consecutive loss as a favorite; Crute had his leg kicked off in five minutes by Anthony Smith (-240 favorite), got KOed on the first exchange by Jamahal Hill (-175), drew with Menifield (-190) because of a point deduction in his favor, and then lost the rematch via guillotine (-150).

He was supposed to face Marcin Prachnio in his return but will get Rodolfo Bellato (who pulled out of a fight with an injury last May) on one month's notice instead and attempt to re-assert himself as a serious light heavyweight prospect.

Both fighters have poor striking defense (44%) and questionable durability. Bellato is the more refined striker, but Crute may have the wrestling advantage and could potentially control or finish this fight from the top position. Bellato has a powerful top game when he can ground opponents, but he's the likelier of the pair to get reversed in a scramble. I suspect that a peak version of Crute might be able to consistently control or win an uglier, grappling-based fight.

I prefer Bellato on the feet, purely on mindset; Crute has seemed tentative to engage and get hit in recent fights, while Bellato will be much more willing to press forward and put himself in danger to hurt his opponent. He's also the bigger man (1" taller, 3" reach advantage) and seemingly carries more power, but Crute may have the better gas tank in a potential third round.

I projected Crute as a +102 underdog and would bet his moneyline at +110 or better.

I also show value on Crute to win inside the distance (projected +243, listed +380) and both his KO/TKO (projected +432, listed +550) and submission (projected +863, listed +1200) props. Considering I like Crute to win a grappling-oriented fight, I prefer the sub prop, but I may save that stab to juice up a round-robin.

Bets

• Jimmy Crute (+140, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +110
• Jimmy Crute wins Inside the Distance (+390, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +250

Tallison Teixeira vs. Justin Tafa

Projection: Tallison Teixeira (50.6%)

Quickslip

Bet Justin Tafa +130 (Mobile Only)

Justin Tafa owns a .500 record (albeit against low-level competition) in the UFC's heavyweight division, but he's at a severe grappling and size disadvantage (7" shorter, 9" reach discrepancy) against Tallison Teixeira.

Tallison was supposed to debut on the undercard for a Brazilian champion at UFC 310 in December but pulled out of his fight against Lukasz Brzeski with an injury. Teixeira was -300 in that matchup. Brzeski — who doesn't hit particularly hard — was a much less dangerous opponent than Tafa, who carries significant power and excellent durability for the Heavyweight division.

Tafa has never won a fight past the nine-minute mark in his career (0-3 in decisions). Still, he's shown surprisingly solid cardio in extended fights against Karl Williams (won the third round) and Carlos Felipe (lost a controversial split). In contrast, Texieira has never been past the five-minute mark in a professional fight.

I don't trust Teixeira's tall man-striking defense against a potent puncher (regardless of the size discrepancy), and I am uncertain that he has the wrestling to get Tafa down to the mat. Once there, Teixeira should have a fight-ending advantage, but only Karl Williams (seven takedowns on 12 attempts) has been able to ground Tafa in the UFC; the Aussie kickboxer has a bad bottom game but decent first-layer takedown defense.

I project an edge on Tafa's moneyline (to +110) and prefer his KO/TKO prop (projected +166, listed +195) to his decision prop (projected +912, listed +1000) even though I also show an edge on the fight to see the scorecards (projected +388, listed +490).

UFC Heavyweight fights have only ended by finish at a 54% clip in the past two years (61-63% from 2020 to 2022). While this is a binary matchup, -800 (88.9% implied) to finish and +490 (17% implied) to see the scorecards is likely an overadjustment.

Typically, if a heavyweight fight goes over 1.5, it also tends to go the distance. However, considering Teixeira has never been past the five-minute mark, the Over 1.5 (+150) could be better if you play the total. For me, it's Tafa or pass.

Bets

• Justin Tafa (+130, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to +110
• Justin Tafa wins by KO/TKO (+195, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +175

Weili Zhang vs. Tatiana Suarez

Projection: Suarez (58.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Billy and I are mostly in agreement on our analysis of UFC 312. Still, we diverge on the co-main event, primarily because we differ on how competitive Zhang's defensive grappling will be on the bottom against Suarez.

Zhang opened as a -195 favorite, with Suarez closer to +150 (40% implied). However, the American has moved more than 15% in implied probability to -125 (55.6%) as of writing.

The champion was one of three "public" fighters in my projections this week. On average, fans picked Zhang to win 59% of the time (as high as 67% from one source), compared to her underdog odds. As a result, my modeled projection tipped toward the challenger.

The unbeaten Suarez — considered the champion in waiting since 2018 — had dealt with health problems throughout her career and didn't look particularly sharp when she returned in 2023 after a nearly four-year layoff. She also pulled out of two fights in 2024 (against Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba) with injury and health issues but eventually received this long-deserved title shot.

I believe Zhang is a far better offensive grappler than she is defensively. She also tires when forced to defend takedowns from opponents.

Zhang is the better striker, but she's spent 60% of her cage time fighting at distance — compared to 27% for Suarez, who averages an exhausting 12.7 takedown attempts per five minutes from striking range. Weili tends to get overaggressive with combinations, leaving herself vulnerable to reactionary takedowns (she has only denied six of 12 career attempts). Suarez (completed 27 of 44 attempts, 61% accuracy) is the best grappler she's ever faced.

Moreover, Suarez has spent 97% of her clinch and grappling time in control positions — compared to 77% for Zhang, and I expect Weili to get stuck on the bottom for long stretches against a far better wrestler.

Still, if Weili can defend takedowns — or at least avoid getting submitted until the second half of the fight, when Suarez might eventually tire — she should be able to land substantially more damage on the feet, if not finish her opponent with strikes.

Overall, it's a reasonably binary matchup. The fight is lined to end inside the distance more than 60% of the time, compared to a division baseline closer to 33.3% in the UFC's lightest division (115 pounds). I show slight value on the goes-to-decision prop (projected +116, listed +130), but given the stylistic matchup, I'm happy to pass on the total.

I would bet Suarez on the moneyline to -130 (projected -140) and play her to win by submission (projected +244, listed +270) or inside the distance (projected +187, listed +175) pre-fight; her success should be frontloaded.

However, consider betting Zhang live at a significant number after Round 3; Suarez has never seen the championship rounds and may wilt down the stretch.

Bets

• Tatiana Suarez (-115, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to -130
• Tatiana Suarez wins by Submission (+280, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +250
• Weili Zhang Live after Round 3

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland

Projection: Du Plessis (66.5%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out my full fight preview for Saturday's main event and middleweight title bout.

In short, in the first fight, I projected Dricus Du Plessis as a 53% favorite (-113 implied odds) and bet on him at plus money. I also set the fight to go the distance at 31% (+218), which aligned with the betting market (listed at +220).

The odds for the rematch have shifted to -215 (68.3% implied) and -180 (64.3%), reflecting a difference of 15% and 33.3%, respectively. My updated projections are -199 (66.5%) and -148 (59.7%), so I don’t see value on either side of the moneyline or the total, aside from a slight edge on the “goes-to-decision” prop (-160) at FanDuel. I would need -200 to bet Du Plessis or -150 to play the “goes to decision” prop.

However, I believe the finishing odds have overcorrected, especially on Du Plessis’ side, relative to the first fight and the middleweight baseline (58% finish rate since 2021).

I project a slight edge for Du Plessis to win inside the distance (projected +200) and by submission (projected +652), and I would sprinkle on the former at +200 or better.

For those willing to lay some juice, I also project an edge on Du Plessis in the finish-only market (projected -472, listed -340).

Bets

• Dricus Du Plessis wins Inside the Distance (+215, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to +200

Sean Zerillo's UFC 312 Picks & Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

• Kevin Jousset (-225, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -230
• Gabriel Santos (-225, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -250
• Francisco Prado (+200, 0.75u) at Caesars; bet to +160
• Jimmy Crute (+140, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +110
• Justin Tafa (+130, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to +110
• Tatiana Suarez (-115, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to -130

Prop Bets and Totals

• Kody Steele wins by Submission (+350, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +275
• Thicknesse/Topuria, Over 1.5 Rounds (-122, 0.25u) at BallyBet; bet to -135
• Thicknesse/Topuria, Fight Goes to Decision (+230, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +225
• Borshchev/Nolan, Over 1.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -150
• Borshchev/Nolan, Fight Goes to Decision (+250, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +200
• Francisco Prado wins by KO/TKO (+430, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +375
• Jimmy Crute wins Inside the Distance (+390, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +250
• Justin Tafa wins by KO/TKO (+195, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +175
• Tatiana Suarez wins by Submission (+280, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +250
• Dricus Du Plessis wins Inside the Distance (+215, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to +200

Parlays

• SGP: Quillan Salkilld and Over 1.5 Rounds (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -115

Live Bets

• Colby Thicknesse Live after Round 1
• Weili Zhang Live after Round 3