Check out our UFC 312 predictions for the Saturday, February 8, event live from the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. The prelims air on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card shifting to ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the fight card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 312 Moneyline Projections
UFC 312 Prop Projections
UFC 312 Best Bets
Billy Ward: Aleksandre Topuria vs. Colby Thicknesse
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Normally, I prefer to go with favorites or slight underdogs as my "Best Bet" for the weekend on UFC cards.
However, when looking at all of the picks I've made so far and evaluating which one is my favorite — it's still Colby Thicknesse at nearly three-to-one odds.
I originally bet on Thicknesse on Monday as part of my Luck Ratings. At the time, you could get even better prices, up to +350. While those numbers are gone, the +295 at BetRivers is still more than enough value for me on the Australian prospect.
He's facing Aleksandre Topuria, the older brother of UFC featherweight champion Ilia. Outside of his last name, nothing else about him particularly stands out. While he has a 5-1 record, just one of those fights came against an opponent with a winning record. He also hasn't fought in nearly two years, and those six fights have been spread out over nearly a decade.
Thicknesse is a training partner of former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski and has a 7-0 pro record. Those have been largely tougher fights, with four of his former foes holding winning MMA records. He also has an extensive 7-1 amateur record and "home-field advantage" training in a Sydney suburb.
While I don't love the short-notice nature of this bout for Thicknesse, that's not enough in and of itself to justify the long odds. Especially since, as an undefeated local prospect, he was hopefully preparing for situations like this just in case he was needed.
I would bet Thicknesse all the way down to +200, so I'm thrilled with the +295 at BetRivers.
The Pick: Colby Thicknesse +295 (BetRivers)
John Lanfranca: Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Tom Nolan
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
When it comes to Viacheslav Borshchev, I cannot shake the thought of his fight with Chase Hooper. While Hooper’s improvement has been impressive, his thorough domination of Borshchev was shocking. Borshchev defends takedowns at an abysmal 35%, but it wasn’t his wrestling that was exposed in that matchup. Instead, Hooper walked him down and dropped him with strikes.
Tom Nolan is a much more powerful striker and can undoubtedly hurt Borshchev in the striking exchanges. Nolan’s striking defense leaves a lot to be desired, and there are durability concerns that cannot be ignored. Still, I am not convinced Borshchev is the more likely of the two to be the first to land something significant in changing the fight’s outcome.
Borshchev may have the more storied kickboxing background, but Nolan has more tools that can cause damage. Nolan is very good in the clinch, has stinging leg kicks, and throws his strikes with bad intentions that ensure the judges aren't often needed — six of his last seven MMA fights have ended within the first two rounds.
If this contest does turn into just a kickboxing matchup, then the fight is lined correctly at a near pick 'em. However, if the Nolan camp readies their fighter to exploit the massive grappling deficiencies in the game of Borshchev, Nolan will look like a massive favorite if he is able to execute said game plan.
Just the possibility of Nolan finding himself in a dominant position on the mat, combined with my opinion he is the more powerful striker of the two men is enough to make him the value side. Oddsmakers agree with me, as Nolan has now moved from a +125 underdog to -106 in some places due to sharper money coming in on the underdog. Make sure you line-shop and get the best number here, which is currently at DraftKings.
The Pick: Tom Nolan +100 DraftKings
Sean Zerillo: Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:10 p.m. ET
Francisco Prado is moving up from Lightweight to Welterweight for this fight. While he's at a four-inch reach disadvantage against Jake Matthews, Prado should be the far more powerful and durable striker. I expect substantial improvements to his overall game after moving to American Top Team – arguably the best camp in the sport.
While Prado didn't seem like a particularly big lightweight, he's only 22 years old and has settled into his new weight class very quickly; Prado looked impressive on the scales on Friday. And while he tired at elevation in Mexico City, moving up would typically alleviate cardio concerns. Adding muscle could compensate for some of that, but I trust his new camp to prepare him technically and physically for this matchup.
Matthews has 14 UFC wins, but all but one (over Li Jingliang) have aged poorly. He loses any time he takes a significant step up in competition, and despite a well-rounded skillset, Matthews has never made any substantial improvements to his game. He runs his own gym and is coached by his father.
Moreover, Matthews isn't reliable in pursuing the path of least resistance when he has an advantage, despite a projected grappling edge over Prado (he spends 60% of his fight time at distance, controls 62% of grappling positions, and averages 2.1 takedowns per five minutes at distance).
That said, if Matthews can't hit takedowns in this fight — or hold Prado down for extended stretches — I expect him to lose on physicality against a younger, more powerful opponent. Jake has sound striking defense (61% career) but has never worn damage or reacted well to clean punches; he was knocked down in each round by Matthew Semelsberger and has been wobbled in other recent fights.
Bet Prado on the moneyline to +160, and play his knockout prop at +375 or better.
The Pick: Francisco Prado (+200 at Caesars) | Francisco Prado by KO/TKO (+430 at BallyBet)
Bryan Fonseca: Weili Zhang vs. Tatiana Suarez
Contributor at Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
This line doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Weili Zhang has been the best strawweight in the world for three years at least. Is it wrong to want to bet on that?
Weili has finishing power, though she only has one stoppage across her last four bouts. She also has the ability to submit an opponent on the ground, though I wouldn't anticipate this is how this ends.
Tatiana Suarez is undefeated and was a freestyle wrestling medalist, which has translated immensely into MMA. She also presents a three-inch reach advantage and will undoubtedly seek to ground the powerful Weili.
Still, We've seen Weili win four straight and is 9-2 in the UFC. She's also been a lot more active in recent years. While this is her first fight in 10 months, and she has only fought once in each of the past two calendar years, Suarez experienced a nearly four-year layoff between June 2019 and February 2023, and this upcoming bout will be her first since August of '23 — an 18-month period.
I'm getting the champ as an underdog against a rising challenger who has been off for 18 months and fought twice in nearly six years? I'm OK with taking that chance. As dominant as Suarez has looked, as much as her striking has improved, and how well her wrestling has translated, this is just a good underdog spot for Zhang that I find too difficult to pass on.
The Pick: Weili Zhang ML +105 (DraftKings)
