After hitting two out of three picks last week — with odds of +650 and +1100 — we're back with our favorite long-shot UFC 312 props for Saturday, February 8.
UFC 312 takes place at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. The preliminary card will stream on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card moving to PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
With 12 fights on the card, we have a pair of UFC 312 prop opportunities we're eyeing this week.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC 312 odds for matchups as of Friday and via DraftKings unless otherwise noted. Bet on UFC 312 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC 312 Props Predictions
Billy Ward: Kody Steele vs. Rongzhu
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
Kody Steele is one of many recent DWCS competitors making his debut at UFC 312, this time as a somewhat heavy favorite against Chinese veteran Rongzhu.
Steele is well known among the grappling community as a high level nogi grappler. He was the 2019 Combat Jiu Jitsu welterweight champion, and has competed in high level events for many years.
We didn't get to see much of that in his Contender Series fight, with Steele going 0-for-3 on takedown attempts against Chasen Blair before picking up a second round knockout. The caveat there is that Blair was a former D1 wrestler, making it a tough matchup for Steele to lean heavily on his grappling in.
Rongzhu's wrestling isn't nearly as tough, and he was taken down four times by Shin Haraguchi in the Road to the UFC final. Rongzhu has plenty of power, and reasonable submission grappling skills, but if Steele wants this one contested on the mat it likely will be.
My thesis is that the market is undervaluing Steele's submission game based on his DWCS performance, with FanDuel listing submission as the least likeliest method of victory for Steele. Given his background that seems off, especially as a -280 moneyline favorite.
Thus, I'm playing Steele by submission (in addition to his moneyline) before the wider MMA world catches on.
The Pick: Kody Steele by Submission +340 (FanDuel)
John Lanfranca: Wang Cong vs. Bruna Brasil
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
Bruna Brasil is now just a +295 underdog against the relatively unproven Cong Wang as the line continues to move in favor of the more experienced MMA fighter. The incredible respect Wang is getting from oddsmakers still lingers, despite her hype train being derailed her last trip to the octagon.
It’s fair to expect Wang to bring a more cautious gameplan into this fight, given that she was hurt and finished in her last fight. Both women come from a kickboxing background, and while Wang’s credentials deserve praise, I personally believe the edge Wang carries in this department may not be as large as some might believe.
Brasil has been working with the Fighting Nerds prior to this fight, and I am confident we will see a well-rounded attack that tests the grappling of Wang. Brasil may not be able to implement this from the opening bell, but if Wang treads lightly in the early going, Brasil should be able to keep things competitive while the fight remains standing.
Brasil’s movement continues to improve fight after fight, which should help her in avoiding Wang’s power shots. Brasil also is physical enough to grab the clinch and threaten takedowns when exchanges happen in close quarters, some of which she should be able to land. All things considered, this line is simply too wide; I am willing to back the underdog in what I see is her most likely path to victory.
The Pick: Bruna Brasil by decision +700 (DraftKings)
