UFC 313 Odds, Predictions: Expert Picks, Previews for All 12 Fights

Check out the latest UFC 313 odds and betting lines, along with my predictions for all 12 fights in Saturday's pay-per-view at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Below, I look at the latest UFC 313 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card.

Here's how to watch UFC 313 today: The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ at 6:30 p.m. ET (3:30 p.m. PT), and then the main card is on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET (PPV cost: $79.99).

UFC 313 Predictions, Odds

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 313 odds, today's event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 313 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC 313 odds are as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 313 with our DraftKings promo code.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

UFC 313 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 12 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC 313 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside the distance.

Ozzy Diaz vs. Djorden Santos

Projection: Santos (65.9%)

Ozzy Diaz is the bigger man (4" taller with a 4" reach advantage) and coming down from Light Heavyweight in his last matchup to face Djorden Santos – who earned his contract with an upset win over Will Currie (closed as high as +380) on contender series last September.

Diaz has been knocked out in both appearances under the UFC banner (including a loss to Joe Pyfer on Contender Series) but he has the power advantage in this matchup.

Still, Santos is seven years younger, with a more efficient striking style and a far better gas tank, and I trust him to overtake the momentum in the second half of the fight. Bet Santos Live if he loses the opening round.

I show a slight edge on Santos's moneyline (projected -202) and either the Over 2.5 Rounds (+120) or the fight to go the distance (projected +124, listed +150).

Moreover, I show a correlated value for Santos to win by decision (projected +218, listed +300), but I wouldn't rule out him winning by attritional damage in Round 3 (+850).

Bets

• Djorden Santos (-195, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -200
• Djorden Santos Live after Round 1

Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castaneda

Projection: Chris Gutierrez (51.2%)

John Castaneda – who was supposed to fight on last week's APEX card until his opponent had an issue at weigh-ins – is the shorter man in this short-notice fight (3" height discrepancy). Still, he owns a four-inch reach advantage at distance and virtually all of the grappling upside in this matchup against Chris Gutierrez.

In the UFC, Castaneda has controlled 73% of grappling exchanges, compared to 17% for Gutierrez. Gutierrez is the far more efficient striker (+3.1 to -0.8 strike differential per minute at distance) with better cardio. However, Gutierrez doesn't offer much power, making it difficult to separate in competitive rounds.

Ultimately, I don't project value on either side of this matchup; however, I would consider betting Gutierrez if the line flips and he moves to plus money; getting back to a full-sized octagon as opposed to the smaller APEX cage should benefit his point-fighting style.

I do have a slight lean toward the goes to decision prop at current odds (projected -309, listed -295), despite a 60% decision rate (-150 implied) for the division. I don't give Gutierrez much finishing upside, but he's also proven to be highly durable.

Bets

• Parlay: Over 2.5 Rounds & Carlos Leal (-200, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -200

Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall

Projection: Mairon Santos (68.6%)

Mairon Santos won the past season of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) — defeating Kaan Ofli in the finals. He's a powerful athlete and a high-potential prospect with a dynamic striking style, but — aside from Bryan Battle — recent TUF winners have struggled against UFC caliber competition, as better talents have typically earned their contract through contender series in recent years.

Francis Marshall isn't as explosive of an athlete as Santos, but he's only a year older, has faced better competition, should still be improving after moving his camp to American Top Team, and is likely to cover his pricetag unless he gets knocked out on the feet.

However, this fight is lined to reach a decision at around -160 (61.5%), which is higher than the divisional average (near 48%), which benefits the underdog in this style clash.

I show value both on Marshall's moneyline (projected +218) and his odds to win by decision (projected +382, listed +470); I'll use the latter on round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Francis Marshall (+245, 0.5u) at Fanduel; bet to +225

Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal

Projection: Carlos Leal (88.1%)

Carlos Leal lost in his short notice UFC debut as a near two to one underdog; a LOT of people (myself included) bet the Leal side; nobody was happy about it:

It was closer to 30-27 Leal than 29-28 the other way; yet one judge scored the fight 30-27 for his opponent. All 16 media scorecards, and nearly 88% of fan scorecards had the bout for Leal; 11 of the media scorecards and 48% of fan scorecards thought he won all three rounds.

Leal will draw 21-fight UFC veteran Alex Morono on Saturday as the most substantial favorite on the card. Leal is four years younger than Morono but also owns a two-inch reach advantage and is significantly more athletic in terms of speed and power.

Moreover, Leal has the cardio to sustain his fighting style for 15 minutes.

Morono has looked slower in his recent fights since his knockout loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in December 2022. And I worry that his durability is beginning to fade, too.

Aside from using Leal as a parlay piece (projected -747) up to -700, I don't project actionable value on either side of the moneyline or total, and I'd likely prefer to take stabs on Leal to win in Round 2 (+490) and Round 3 (+650) as opposed to his decision prop (projected +207, listed +220).

After the robbery, I doubt Leal will let another fight slip to the judges, no matter how dominant he looks.

Bets

• Carlos Leal as a Parlay Piece (up to -700)

Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan

Projection: Armen Petrosyan (61.8%)

Brunno Ferreira is a popular underdog selection this week; the public data I use to create my projections had Ferreira at 65% on average across the samples.

Armen Petrosyan is the more natural middleweight (4" taller, 1" reach advantage) and also the more technical striker (+3.0 to +0.6 strike differential per minute) with better cardio – and I favor him heavily to win any extended contest.

Ferreira is likely drawing dead to a knockout in this fight, and Petrosyan should offer more output down the stretch, potentially finding a late finish.

Brunno has rare power that carries late into fights – but I don't trust his durability (after getting rocked three times in the UFC, including a knockout) – or his gas tank. Ferreira slows because he throws max effort into every technique – including takedowns – and I doubt he can hold Petrosyan down for an extended period of time.

Bet Petrosyan pre-fight to -150 (projected -162) and add more Live at a better number after Round 1.

I also show slight value on the fight to reach a decision (projected +142, listed +175 – compared to the middleweight average of 38% (+170 implied odds), with correlated value on Petrosyan to win by decision (projected +184, listed +270).

Bets

• Armen Petrosyan (-135, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
• Armen Petrosyan Live after Round 1

Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya

Projection: Joshua Van (61.6%)

Saturday's lone Flyweight matchup looks extremely binary as Rei Tsuruya tries to impose his grappling on a slow-starting Josh Van.

Tsuruya is the bigger man (1" taller, 3" reach advantage) but offers very little damage optics for judges; his striking is extremely green, and he offers minimal ground and pound. He's reliant on submissions or dominant control time to win fights, but he seems to have an average gas tank and can't sustain his style for more than two rounds.

Van is typically forced to resist his opponents (denied 21 of 26 takedown attempts in the UFC) until he can separate and land strikes in the second half of the fight (+2.8 to -1.4 differential per minute), which is precisely the gameplan he'll need to follow against Tsuruya.

Long odds on Tsuruya by Round 1 submission (+1700) could be worth a poke. Still, I expect Van to flip the fight's momentum after five minutes and pull away down the stretch – if not finish the fight late after slowing Tsuruya with body combinations.

Target Van Live after Round 1, but consider his odds to win in Round 2 (+900), Round 3 (+1100), by decision (projected +154, listed +165) or any iteration of a later Van victory in an SGP from a pre-fight perspective.

Bets

• Same Game Parlay (SGP): Joshua Van & Over 1.5 Rounds (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Joshua Van Live after R1

Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Projection: Curtis Blaydes (70.2%)

After two tries on the Contender Series, Rizvan Kuniev will make his UFC debut on Saturday, in a highly shallow heavyweight division that now only features around 30 active fighters.

The division's lack of bodies explains the strange matchmaking, as Blaydes has served as a title challenger fighting atop the division, and an upset win could instantly move Kuniev into the division's top five.

Rizvan is light on his feet – as a former Wushu Sanda practitioner — but he's the smaller man in the fight (4" reach discrepancy) and likely to end up on his back against Blaydes — who has averaged nearly 11 takedown attempts per 15 minutes inside the octagon.

Blaydes has a wonky chin, but those five knockout losses have arguably come against the four most powerful punchers in the division's history (Francis Ngannou 2x, Derrick Lewis, Sergei Pavlovich, Tom Aspinall).

Still, after his loss to Lewis, Blaydes fought extremely tentatively against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and he was dominated in the majority of each of his past three fights.

I project value on the underdog, Kuniev (projected +236, listed +270), whom I'd bet to +250 – but I may wait until fight day to add a ticket; his line has only climbed after opening near +250.

Additionally, I show value on this Heavyweight bout ending inside the distance (projected -251, listed -163) and on Kuniev winning by KO (projected +460, listed +650) or inside the distance (projected +394, listed +500).

Bets

• Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-166, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -200
• Wait for the peak price on Rizvan Kuniev (ideally +300; bet at +250 or better)

King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy

Projection: Maurio Ruffy (77.7%)

Mauricio Ruffy is a dynamic striker from Team Fighting Nerds – and has drawn comparisons to Conor McGregor for his movement, power, and showmanship – but he also shares McGregor's tendency to fade in extended fights.

Ruffy seemingly has ten minutes of effective cardio, which may limit his upside and hinder his championship potential at 155-pounds.

He's the younger, more powerful man, with a four-inch reach advantage against King (formerly Bobby) Green – who is nearing the end of his MMA career as he enters his 50th professional fight.

Prime Green would be able to withstand Ruffy's early storm, flip the momentum in the middle of the fight, and dominate minutes in the third round, leading to a competitive split decision.

However, Green is clearly slowing his brutal knockout loss (and late stoppage) against Jalin Turner, the continuation of a decline in durability after his December 2022 knockout loss against Drew Dober. Green can't shoulder-roll away from the punches he used to avoid, and when his opponents land clean, he isn't absorbing the damage well anymore.

I project value on Ruffy to win by KO/TKO (projected -116, listed -103) or inside the distance (projected -140, listed -138) and I show value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -211, listed -195), and I like iterations of Ruffy to win in the early part of the fight, including an SGP with the Under 1.5 or his Round 1 KO/TKO prop (listed +295)

Bets

• Same Game Parlay (SGP): Mauricio Ruffy & Under 1.5 Rounds (+170, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Same Game Parlay (SGP): Mauricio Ruffy & Under 2.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo

Projection: Iasmin Lucindo (54.9%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

There is a near 15-year age gap between these Strawweight opponents. When there is at least a decade between UFC opponents, the younger fighter wins about 12% above market expectations based on historical listed odds.

Amanda Lemos carries some of the most significant power in the history of the 115-pound division, but she has poor cardio which should only worsen with age (coming off a long layoff nearing at age 37), and she oftentimes ends up on her back for stretches after getting taken down or pulling guillotine (controlled 29% of grappling positions, compared to 82% for Lucindo).

While Lucindo is still green as a fighter, she's a strong athlete and continues to improve at 23 years old.

Lucindo should offer more volume across a 15-minute fight and has full top-time upside too. However, while I could see either fighter winning by submission, only Lemos is likely to win via standing KO; Lucindo should force the grappling early and often to tire out her older opponent.

Lucindo opened at plus money and is starting to move close to -150 (60% implied), and I agree with the line movement. However, Lemos is now starting to come into range (projected +122), although I'd want at least +140 on the underdog.

I project value on this fight reaching a decision (projected -259, listed -220) and Lemos winning by decision (projected +240, listed +260); however, I'd prefer to lay juice on the former.

Given the age gap and cardio discrepancy, consider betting Lucindo live after a competitive first round and consider a Same Game Parlay with Lucindo and the Over 1.5 Rounds; she likely only finishes a tiring Lemos in the second half of a grappling-heavy fight.

Bets

• Same Game Parlay (SGP): Iasmin Lucindo & Under 1.5 Rounds (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Iasmin Lucindo Live after Round 1

Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

Projection: Ignacio Bahamondes (57.4%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, John Lanfranca.

At 6'3", neither Jalin Turner nor Ignacio Bahamondes has faced much size parity at Lightweight.

Turner is a southpaw with a crucial two-inch reach advantage, quicker hands, and more substantial power. However, Bahamondes offers substantially better cardio and is likely a solid live bet after potentially getting clipped early.

Turner also has early grappling upside against Bahamondes—who prefers a range kickboxing match—but both men can snatch necks with their long limbs, and it'd be entertaining to see these two scramble.

Of the pair, Bahamondes is the more efficient striker (+2.7 to +0.7 strike differential per minute) because he's more sound defensively (57% vs. 41% striking defense) and less willing to brawl, which could prove the difference in this fight.

Turner should get off to a fast start – as he typically does in any fight – but Bahamondes should have a path to rally his way back if he can withstand some early damage from an equally tall lightweight.

I project pre-fight value on Bahamondes (projected -135, listed -122) – he moved to favorite after opening around even money but has come back down from as high as -138.

I also show value on the fight going over 2.5 Rounds or reaching a decision (projected +122, listed +166) and on Bahamondes to win by decision (projected +263, listed +310), although I would have initially leaned towards his odds to win in Round 2 (+800) or Round 3 (+1000).

Bets

• Ignacio Bahamondes (-122, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -125

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafel Fiziev

Projection: Rafael Fiziev (67.6%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Rafael Fiziev is taking Saturday's fight – and rematch with Justin Gaethje – on short notice in place of Dan Hooker. Fiziev suffered an ACL tear against Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023, and this will be his first fight back since the injury.

For Gaethje, this is his first appearance since his last-second knockout loss against Max Holloway for the BMF title last April. It was a particularly brutal knockout and potentially career-altering; we'll see how his once-excellent chin holds up going forward.

Fiziev closed as a -225 favorite in the first fight against Gaethje at UFC 286 but ultimately lost a controversial majority decision; the majority of media scorecards (17 of 27) and fans (65%) had the bout for Gaethje, but awarding him a 10-8 third round on one official scorecard was a step too far.

Gaethje, one of the sport's most popular fighters, is an extremely public underdog selection this week—at 59% on average in my public data sample, which I use to create my projections.

I'm happy to bet the price adjustment on the favorite—who should get out to a lead with his lethal body kicks like he did in the first fight. Gaethje has proven far less durable to the body than he has to the head throughout his career.

Gaethje should offer better cardio in an extended fight—as he did in the first matchup, especially with Fiziev coming off a knee injury—but I fear the Holloway knockout may have been career-altering.

Bet Fiziev to -190 (projected -209) pre-fight, and consider a live exit by betting Gaethje at an arbitrage point if he's competitive in Round 1. I also show value on Fiziev to win by decision (projected +164, listed +240) — which I thought he deserved in the first fight.

Bets

• Rafael Fiziev (-155, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -190

Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev

Projection: Magomed Ankalaev (57.0%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out my full fight preview for Saturday's main event and Light Heavyweight title bout.

In short, I projected Magomed Ankalaev as a 57% favorite (-133 implied odds) in this matchup and I would bet his moneyline up to -125, at just under a two percent edge compared to my projection.

Additionally, I project value on the fight to reach a decision, setting the fight to go the distance around 38% of the time (+164 implied odds) compared to listed odds of +180 (35.7%), and an average decision rate of roughly one-third in five-round light-heavyweight fights since 2018 (closer to 39% in three round fights).

Moreover, I show correlated value on Ankalaev to win by decision (projected +258, listed +310) or most any SGP iteration of Ankalaev and the fight to go longer..

I also like Ankalaev as a live bet at a better price anytime after Round 1, particularly if he hasn't grappled to that point in the fight.

Bets

• Magomed Ankalaev (+100, 0.5u) at BetRivers; bet to -125
• Magomed Anakalev Live after Round 1

Sean Zerillo's UFC 313 Picks & Predictions

For additional notifications about UFC 313 bets, follow me in the Action Network App.

Moneyline Bets

• Djorden Santos (-195, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -200
• Francis Marshall (+245, 0.5u) at Fanduel; bet to +225
• Armen Petrosyan (-135, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
• Ignacio Bahamondes (-122, 0.25u) at BetRivers; bet to -125
• Rafael Fiziev (-155, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -190
• Magomed Ankalaev (+100, 0.5u) at BetRivers; bet to -125

Prop Bets and Totals

• Blaydes/Kuniev, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-166, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -200

Parlays

• Parlay: Castaneda/Gutierrez, Over 2.5 Rounds & Carlos Leal (-200, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -200
• Same Game Parlay (SGP): Joshua Van & Over 1.5 Rounds (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Same Game Parlay (SGP): Mauricio Ruffy & Under 1.5 Rounds (+170, 0.1u) at DraftKings
• Same Game Parlay (SGP): Mauricio Ruffy & Under 2.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at DraftKings
• Same Game Parlay (SGP): Iasmin Lucindo & Under 1.5 Rounds (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Live Bets

• Djorden Santos Live after Round 1
• Armen Petrosyan Live after Round 1
• Joshua Van Live after Round 1
• Iasmin Lucindo Live after Round 1
• Ignacio Bahamondes Live after Round 1
• Magomed Anakalev Live after Round 1