UFC 313 is headlined by the company's biggest star, Alex "Poatan" Pereira taking on Magomed Ankalaev. This will be the fourth title defense for Pereira in less than a year, and Ankalaev is arguably the last viable contender for the belt. The 12-fight card also features fan favorite Justin Gaethje taking on Rafael Fiziev, with the prelims starting at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+ streaming followed by the PPV main card at 10:00 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 313 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 313 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Alex Pereira (-118) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (-102)
Pereira is on an unprecedented run, with this his fourth attempted title defense in an 11-month span. If he's successful against Ankalaev, he will have thoroughly cleaned out the light heavyweight division, with wins over the top four challengers in the UFC rankings.
However, Ankalaev will be the first opponent in his title run to pose a true grappling threat. Pereira's wins in title fights have all been over fellow strikers, and only Jan Blachowicz — whom he needed a split decision to beat — has really pushed Pereira in that department.
Still, Ankalaev averages less than a takedown per 15 minutes, Pereira has largely defended takedowns well in the UFC, and this is a five-round fight. The odds of Ankalaev being able to effectively grapple that long are somewhat slim, which means "Poatan" will have his opportunities on the feet.
I'm not in a rush to bet this one, and might prefer alternate angles as the week moves on. With that said, from a moneyline perspective Pereira should probably be favored a bit more than he currently is, so I consider him (slightly) undervalued.
Verdict: Alex Pereira Undervalued
Rafael Fiziev (-142) vs. Justin Gaethje (+120)
The co-main event slot at UFC 313 was originally Gaethje vs. Dan Hooker, in what promised to be an extremely violent striking fight. An injury to Hooker forced a change of plans, but fortunately Fiziev stepped in for what should be a similar style of fight.
This is a rematch from 2023, in which a more heavily favored Fiziev lost a close majority decision. Since then, Fiziev has had just one fight — which he lost due to a gruesome leg injury forcing him out of action for about 18 months.
Gaethje has fought twice in that span, with a head kick knockout win over Dustin Poirier and a knockout loss in 2024s fight of the year against Max Holloway.
Which creates a tough handicapping spot. Typically I want to fade fighters coming back from injuries — especially when they're stepping in on short notice. Fiziev hasn't had a full fight camp in a very long time, and we have no idea how recovered he truly is.
On the other hand, Gaethje is coming off a bad knockout loss, against an equally dangerous striker who gave him plenty of trouble in their first meeting.
I'm considering this fairly valued for now, but keep an eye out for my full preview of this fight later in the week.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Ignacio Bahamondes (-118) vs. Jalin Turner (-102)
I'm convinced the UFC made this matchup mainly for the optics — the two tallest lightweights in the division at 6'3" facing off is a bit of a spectacle.
Both men are powerful strikers who typically use their height and reach advantages well, keeping their opponents on the outside. That's not an option for either fighter this time around, which should create an interesting dynamic on the feet.
I do think Turner is a bit undervalued here, though, based on his recent results. He's 1-3 in his last four fights, but two of those were split decision losses — and he took one of those on very short notice. The other recent loss was a second round TKO against Renato Moicano, in a fight that could've been waved off in his favor when Turner dropped Moicano in the first round.
He's also fought much tougher competition than Bahamondes in recent fights, which is another box checked in his favor.
With the bulk of Tapology predictions coming in on Bahamondes, we're probably better served to wait a bit before jumping in on Turner. However, if he moves to plus money I'll be making my bet on him.
Verdict: Jalin Turner Undervalued
Armen Petrosyan (-155) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+130)
We have another striker-vs.-striker matchup at UFC 313, with Armen Petrosyan taking on Brunno Ferreira.
While both middleweights do their best work on the feet, how they strike is very different. Ferreira is a brawler with huge power, while Petrosyan is a highly technical kickboxer who has nearly doubled up his opposition on significant strikes in the UFC.
Petrosyan was also knocked out badly by Shara Magomedov's double spinning backfist in his last fight, and has never landed a UFC knockdown. Ferreira has three knockdowns in hsi five UFC appearances, all in the first round.
Broadly speaking I'll take the fighter with the finishing upside at plus money anytime. However, there's a couple ways to play this one. First is to take Ferreira's moneyline prefight, while looking for live betting opportunities on Petrosyan.
The other option is to wait for props, and bet Ferreira by knockout, or Ferreira early (Round 1 KO, Round 1 or 2 Prop, etc.).
I'm splitting my exposure between those two methods, which means a half-unit bet on Ferreira's moneyline to start the week. The best line is +132 at BetRivers.
Verdict: Brunno Ferreira Undervalued
