Read our UFC 313 predictions for the Saturday, March 8, event live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time, with the main card starting on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 ET.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the fight card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 313 Moneyline Projections
UFC 313 Prop Projections
UFC 313 Best Bets
John Lanfranca: Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
Ultimate fighter winner Mairon Santos is listed as high as -350 against UFC veteran Francis Marshall on the UFC 313 prelims. This line is much too wide for several reasons. For starters, early lines opened with Santos as just a -200 favorite.
The gameplan should be pretty straightforward for Marshall – test the defensive grappling of Santos. Standing and trading with Santos should not be recommended, the Marshall corner should encourage their fighter to push a pace that matches his 2.6 takedowns per 15 minute average.
Marshall has been involved in some very close decisions against fighters I hold in just as high regard as Santos, if not higher. Santos is being overvalued here, as is usually the case when a prospect is coming off an impressive knockout victory on The Contender Series or the Ultimate Fighter.
Santos’ only MMA loss came against another UFC-caliber fighter with a wrestling base in Dan Argueta back in 2022 outside of the UFC organization. If Marshall can vary his attack and extend this fight, he can definitely replicate the success Argueta had in handing Santos the loss.
When betting sizable underdogs in the UFC, you do not often get the experience edge to go along with the wrestling/grappling advantage as well. I really like the price we are getting on Marshall to implement his gameplan and spring the upset.
The Pick: Francis Marshall ML +255 (FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
Brunno Ferreira is a popular underdog selection this week; the public data I use to create my projections had Ferreira at 65% on average across the samples.
Armen Petrosyan is the more natural middleweight (4" taller, 1" reach advantage) and also the more technical striker (+3.0 to +0.6 strike differential per minute) with better cardio – and I favor him heavily to win any extended contest.
Ferreira is likely drawing dead to a knockout in this fight, and Petrosyan should offer more output down the stretch, potentially finding a late finish.
Brunno has rare power that carries late into fights – but I don't trust his durability (after getting rocked three times in the UFC, including a knockout) – or his gas tank. Ferreira slows because he throws max effort into every technique – including takedowns – and I doubt he can hold Petrosyan down for an extended period of time.
Bet Petrosyan pre-fight to -150 (projected -162) and add more Live at a better number after Round 1.
The Pick: Armen Petrosyan (-155 at DraftKings) | Petrosyan Live after Round 1
Bryan Fonseca: Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:15 p.m. ET
I'm getting 21 knockouts across 30 wins between two of the heaviest hitters at lightweight? Sure, why not.
Jalin Turner fights have ended by knockout or technical knockout in four of his last nine, including in two straight — this dates going back five years.
For Bahamondes he has won back-to-back fights by knockout and has had three of six ending by stoppage. Though he himself hasn't been stopped yet, Turner has four times, including the last we saw him, opposite Renato Moicano in April.
As a result, he's the underdog and his inactivity by comparison — Bahamondes was last in the octagon six months ago as opposed to 11 — combined with him actually being knocked out four times makes him more likely to be on the receiving end of a stoppage on paper.
However, this will be a test for Bahamondes. Turner has been in our lives longer but is just two years older — 30 in May — but is a considerable step up from Bahamondes' last opponent, Manuel Torres.
Turner is likely to fight fire with fire with Bahamondes, and moreover, this is enough of a step-up for Bahamondes that this could play into the veteran's hands. Either way, I'll take close to even money on the fight ending via KO/TKO. This will be explosive — and it could be quick.
The Pick: Fight Ends via KO/TKO -115 (DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:15 a.m. ET
We often talk about great champions cleaning out a division. Often times, that talk is overblown, particularly in recent years when fighters are quick to ask for title shots in a second weight class.
However, Alex Pereira has a chance to truly clean out the light heavyweight division with a win over Magomed Ankalaev, the last fighter in the division's top six (based on Tapology rankings) he's yet to defeat.
In three of Pereira's four previous title fights, he was lined as a -150 favorite or less. That's the case yet again Saturday, as he comes into the fight with odds around -120. In all of those fights, Pereira picked up knockout victories without ever being in any real danger.
On the one hand, I understand the optimism around Ankalaev's chances. He's the first opponent since Jan Blachowicz to pose any kind of grappling threat for Pereira, and Pereira needed a split decision in that fight. On the other hand, Blachowicz averages more takedowns per 15 minutes than Ankalaev, with a higher takedown accuracy.
That fight was also three rounds, and it's much tougher from a cardio standpoint to grappler over five rounds than it is to kickbox. Plus, "Poatan" has had another two years to work on his grappling since the Blachowicz fight.
Ultimately, the market is overrating Ankalaev's grappling threat because he's from Dagestan. A fighter with a mustache and no beard with his numbers would be rightfully viewed as a striker — and we wouldn't give them much chance against Pereira.
The best line on Pereira is -115 at BetMGM, but I'd play it down to -130 if the line continues it's slow shift his direction.
The Pick: Alex Pereira -115 (BetMGM)
