Check out our UFC props for UFC 313 with our favorite long-shot prop bets for Saturday, March 8.
UFC 313 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Following prelims on ESPN at 6:30 p.m. ET, the five-fight UFC 313 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
With 12 fights, UFC 313 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found three they like for tonight's card.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC 313 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 313 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC 313Props – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
John Lanfranca: Josh Van vs. Rei Tsuruya
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
Rei Tsuruya against Joshua Van is a clash of styles, but more importantly, it may be a test of each man’s cardio. Josh Van is a cardio machine, looking to put a pace on his opponent with immense volume. Tsuruya, on the other hand, is looking to aggressively pursue takedowns, controlling his opponent with elite jiu jitsu and wrestling skills.
Van’s most recent win was against a similar style fighter in Cody Durden, and it was no surprise how the bout played out. Van has 80% takedown defense, but against elite grapplers, he is likely to end up on his back in the early going. Durden was able to secure two takedowns in round 1, but attempted five more in rounds 2 and 3, and was unsuccessful with all five attempts.
Back in 2024 against Felipe Bunes, Van was taken down in the first round but was controlled for only 42 seconds. Bunes was able to get one more takedown in round 2 before Van once again turned the tables and finished the fight before the end of the round. No UFC fighter has yet to get Van down to the mat in round 3.
I expect more of the same on the UFC 313 prelims, as Tsuruya will likely control the opening round with his olympic-level wrestling skills. He may even begin the second round doing more of the same, which is enough to get me to avoid the moneyline here entirely.
Van will make him work constantly on the mat, and when Van does get the upper hand, things could get ugly for the young Tsuruya. Tsuruya lost the 3rd round in his main roster debut against Carlos Hernandez, failing on his takedown four seconds into round 3 with his energy clearly drained by that point. It is a near certainty Van’s cardio will hold up for all 15 minutes, but the same cannot be said for Tsuruya.
Van has the ability to overwhelm his opponent in the latter stages of the fight with volume, and that is what I expect will happen if Tsuruya starts to fade. While getting the finish isn’t a foregone conclusion, we are getting a healthy potential payout if Van does indeed control the latter rounds as predicted.
The Pick: Josh Van by KO/TKO in rounds 2 or 3 +600 (FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Rafael Fiziev vs. Justin Gaethje
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
In my full preview for this fight, I talked about the red flags for both men coming in.
For Justin Gaethje, the biggest potential concern is his chin. He was knocked out badly in his last fight, and at 36 with a lifetime of wars behind him probably can't take too many more of those. While he took plenty of time to recover since his last fight, he could very well be past the point of no return.
For Fiziev, this is the first fight back after blowing out his knee 18 months ago, and he stepped into the bout on short notice. Fiziev was at a pretty clear cardio disadvantage in his first fight with Gaethje prior to the injury, and that was under much better circumstances.
With all that said, Fiziev is a moderate favorite coming into the fight. I see how we got there, but my read is that if Fiziev is going to win at all, he needs to do it quickly. My favorite way to bet on that is Fiziev via KO at +200 — but that's not quite good enough for the Prop Squad.
Instead, I built a DraftKings SGP with Fiziev to win by knockout and the under 1.5 rounds, which gets us to +360 odds. Considering stoppages are more likely to happen early in fights than late in general — on top of the particular cardio dynamics here — we aren't really sacrificing much in order to boost the odds well beyond his +200 knockout line.
I expanded on this idea — plus offered another prop option for this fight — in this week's UFC Picks Podcast:
The Pick: Fiziev KO & Under 1.5 Rounds SGP +360 (DraftKings)
Bryan Fonseca: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:15 a.m. ET
There's a formula to beating Alex Pereira, I'm just not sure Magomed Ankalaev is the one to execute it.
First of all, it feels like there's a perception that he'll win this on the ground — Ankalaev is being stereotyped because of his Dagestain background. He's not actually a "wrestler" in the strictest sense, he doesn't even have a submission win as a pro MMA fighter.
Ankalaev has 10 career knockouts and nine decision wins, and Paul Craig made him tap in 2018. Ankalaev hasn't attempted a single takedown since 2023, or more than one in a fight since 2022. Ankalaev will likely do plenty of standing here, giving Pereira the opportunity to continue what Jan Blachowicz did en route to a draw in 2022: Leg kicks.
Pereira is going to beat up Ankalaev's legs, and that will wear him down over time, making room for a likely stoppage. To me, that window will open mid-fight.While, Pereira got a stoppage in Round 4 last time out, he's gotten earlier ones against Jiří Procházka twice and Jahmal Hill.
I think Ankalaev could minimize his mistakes and stay in the fight longer. But this should be an accumulation of punishment beginning with the leg kicks, which will open up more striking opportunities upstairs.
The Pick: Alex Pereira Rounds 3 +1000 /Round 4 +1400 (DraftKings)
